NFL Playoff Betting Preview: Ravens at Bills Odds & Picks
One week after the third-year quarterbacks each earned their first NFL playoff victory, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will clash Saturday night in Buffalo as the Bills host the Ravens in the Divisional Round.
The teams will have polar opposite game plans — the Ravens will run, the Bills will pass as much as the weather allows — but who will come out on top? Or more importantly, for our purposes, who will cover the spread?
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
Opening Line: Bills -3
Opening Total: O/U 49.5
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
How to Watch: NBC
As of Friday evening, a slight majority of the betting handle — 56 percent — is on the Buffalo Bills, according to numbers at Scores And Odds. Despite that, this spread (Bills -2.5) has shortened a half-point) at most online sportsbooks_.
The Over/Under has stayed steady with a point total of 49.5. A similarly slight majority of the cash is on the Over, which isn’tsurprise. As Eric Raskin of USBets points out, NFL bettors love the Over in all four Divisional Round games.
Weather
“Weather here is trending towards being a bit more interesting… Temp around freezing, chance for some snow, but most importantly winds coming in at 15-20mph sustained with gusts around 30. It’s not hugely impactful, but it’s going to have some impact on deeper throws and kicks.” – Kevin Roth
Stay on top of for all four Divisional Round forecasts with Kevin Roth’s NFL weather report.
Injuries
Bills: Running back Zack Moss is out with an ankle injury and won’t return this postseason even if the Bills extend their playoff run. Aside from that, both the Bills and Ravens are relatively healthy.
Ravens vs. Bills Betting Picks
ATS Pick: Ravens +3
Over/Under Pick: Under 49.5
Jackson failed to match his NFL MVP season, particularly with his arm. Jackson’s numbers have regressed across the board, and the biggest drop-off has been in the touchdown department.
With an extra season of game film to scout, defenses have had a much easier time slowing down this Ravens offense and held Jackson to 10 fewer touchdown passes than he threw last season. Meanwhile, Allen was busy launching own MVP campaign, and if weren’t for Aaron Rodgers, he might have succeeded. If you put #12 aside for a second, there’s no denying Allen has been as impressive as anyone else. The capo of Bills Mafia completed just under 70 percent of his passes while racking up 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns through the air. On the ground, Allen added 420 yards and eight touchdowns. Allen will be Buffalo’s main rushing threat when in the red zone with Moss out.
The real test will be for a Bills defense that has allowed more than their fair share of yards and points this season.
Ranked 17th against the run (DVOA), the Bills have given up 122.2 rushing yards per contest. In total, they’re giving up nearly 360 yards per game. Of course, we can blame some of that on their offense, which leads in the AFC in points scored while gaining 396.5 yards per game. No matter how good the defense is, if you have a league-leading offense, chances are other teams will move the ball in garbage time.
As a sharp RotoGrinders member relayed to me in my early NFL Divisional Round Picks piece, Allen appears to have an optimal matchup against Ravens’ man defensive scheme. 90 percent of Allen’s interception came against zone defenses. And what kind of scheme did Allen often dice up for the bulk of his touchdown passes? You guessed it — man coverage.
How can the Ravens slow down this Bills offense? Well, Allen hasn’t been great under pressure, and you don’t have to twist John Harbaugh’s arm to convince him to send extra pass rushers. The Ravens blitz more often than any other team, and they certainly won’t shy away from blitzing here.
We know the Ravens don’t want to play from behind after seeing how of a problem that was for them in their 2020 Divisional Round game against the Titans.
That’s ok. I like the Ravens to win — though out of caution, I’ll stick to the points spread at BetMGM, where we can still take a field goal.
The Bills struggle against the run, and few teams run the ball better than Ravens. When passing, Jackson should be able to link up with Mark Andrews, who has a phenomenal matchup.
Baltimore was the favorite in the betting market, in front of the Chiefs for a couple of weeks, at the start of the season. Those who thought that were obviously wrong, but how wrong were they? Maybe less than you think.
I expect Baltimore to use one of the the best secondaries in the league and a ferocious pass rush to disrupt Allen and the Bills’ passing game while Jackson and J.K. Dobbins exhaust a defense that has proven susceptible against the run. This game script should set us up for the Under, too.
[Bet Ravens +3 and Under 49. 5 at BetMGM]
While I’m taking the Ravens and the three points, I will say pointsbetting the Bills for a bigger payout would intrigue me if I were on that side of the line. Think again about the Titans game and where the Ravens struggled. If Baltimore is forced to play catch-up and turn to the passing game, then things could get ugly, especially if snow begins to fall and winds pick up.
So, yes. I’m telling you to bet on the Ravens +3 at BetMGM, but if you prefer not to listen to me (which is perfectly fine), then I’m suggesting you pointsbet Bills -3.5 and hope for a blowout. By doing this, if the Bills win by, say, 14 points, you’ll win 10.5x your buy-in. For more information about pointsbetting, read our PointsBet sportsbook review.
Player Props
Jackson Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (PointsBet)
Beasley Over 4.5 Receptions +120 (FanDuel) – With Moss out, we’ll see more four-receiver sets than usual. The Ravens typically do a good job at covering no. 1 receivers, leaving more receptions than usual for the no. 2 and no. 3 options, such as Beasley. Expect him to have big game in the slot, at least in terms of receptions.
Image Credit: Imagn