Primetime Parlay: Ravens vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:29:53

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Baltimore Ravens versus the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football.

The Baltimore Ravens have an opportunity to take over the top seed in the AFC with a win tonight in Los Angeles. The Ravens might be the most balanced team in the NFL — armed with an explosive offense and an equally dominating defense. By the time the game starts, we will know if the Ravens can take over the top seed with a road victory against the Chargers. The Chargers need a streak of wins to keep their season alive. We will look at betting odds, injuries, and statistics before building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Ravens vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay

Per SAO, 61% of tickets and money were bet on the Ravens betting spread throughout the week. The Ravens are -3 at the time of this writing, and despite being on the road, bettors seem to prefer them to the home team. The implied game total has climbed throughout the week. Opening at 45.5 points, the majority of the action being placed on the over has the total up to 48.5 points.

Mark Andrews was lost to the IR last week and Isaiah Likely will take over for the superstar tight end. Reports are that Likely will take on the full Andrews role. Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman are likely to play Sunday night while LT Ronnie Stanley is questionable for the game.

For the Ravens, missing Ronnie Stanley wouldn’t be as disastrous, as Joey Bosa was lost to a foot injury last week and landed on the IR. The offense, however, should be at full strength with Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, and Jalen Guyton available to play on Sunday night. The Chargers’ offense has not been the issue this season.

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Keenan Allen is the most-targeted player in the NFL this season with 113 targets in 10 games. His 11.3 targets per game average is more than a full target ahead of Davante Adams for second place. Allen will have his hands full this evening against one of the better defenses in the NFL.

Here is a look at the offensive statistics for both teams ahead of tonight’s battle in Los Angeles.

Baltimore Offense
4th — 27.6 PPG
5th — 5.8 YPP
4th — 8.0 Passing YPA
2nd — 4.8 Rushing YPA

Los Angeles Offense
8th — 25.9 PPG
10th — 5.5 YPP
9th — 7.4 Passing YPA
20th — 4.1 Rushing YPA

Do we have a more balanced offense in the NFL? The Ravens don’t just throw the ball or run the ball effectively. Instead, Lamar’s dual-threat ability makes Baltimore efficient in both facets of the game. Lamar is sixth in passer rating and second in MVP betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. With a victory on Sunday night, Jackson might move ahead of Jalen Hurts.

As for defense, the Ravens continue to battle with the 49ers for the top spot in most categories each week. This week, the Ravens are second in scoring defense and first in yards per play on defense. The Chargers? Well… the Chargers rank 24th in points per game and 28th in yards per play. The Chargers’ offense and Justin Herbert are not the problem. Brandon Staley could be on his last legs as a defensive-minded head coach with these numbers.

The Ravens lead the league in defensive yards per pass attempt while the Chargers are 30th. Lamar should have plenty of room and time to find his receivers down the field. Justin Herbert will potentially be running for his life as the Ravens put the Chargers in awkward positions.

Will the Chargers be victorious in a must-win game or will the Ravens continue to assert dominance in the AFC? Let’s take a look at what ParlayIQ expects for tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football

Likely Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Jackson Over 241.5 Passing Yards
Herbert Over 244.5 Passing Yards

Isaiah Likely Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

Buyer beware! ParlayIQ only features 30% of the thousands of simulations of this game with Isaiah Likely going over his receiving prop. I will admit I don’t get it.

So unlike most articles, I am going to go against ParlayIQ, which means we are going to see a monstrous chasm between the projected price of our parlay and what FanDuel actually offers. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receiving yards to the tight end position this season. Likely, in relief of Andrews last year, played very well and was given plenty of opportunities. I don’t think Lamar will shy away from his young tight end.

We open against the ParlayIQ grain which means we shouldn’t sweat the numbers much anymore. There is no way we will see a favorable difference in expected value.

Lamar Jackson Over 241.5 Passing Yards

The Chargers defense has been horrendous against opposing passers while being slightly more formidable against rushing. ParlayIQ loves the over on Lamar’s rushing yards, but I think I am more interested in his passing.

The Ravens have had plenty of games where Lamar doesn’t have to do much because of a wildly efficient running game. With that said, early in the game I anticipate the Ravens throwing the ball until this game gets out of reach. Justin Herbert and company will attempt to answer back in primetime, which might keep the ball in Lamar’s hands.

Justin Herbert Over 244.5 Passing Yards

Finally, I don’t see much value in picking one Charger on offense to feature. Instead, I am going to buy the over on Justin Herbert and his passing yardage. Attacking the angle that the Ravens will score often tonight, Herbert and company will need to answer.

The Ravens defense is outstanding. I will not pretend to think this will look pretty. Instead, I think that this will come to fruition more out of necessity. ParlayIQ does like this prop if we already booked our other two props, finding this in more than 52% of simulations.