Ravens vs. Chargers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Ravens vs. Chargers Odds
| Ravens Odds | -2.5 |
| Chargers Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 51 |
| Date | Monday, November 25, 2024 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 12 of the NFL regular season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN and ABC.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Ravens as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread. The total is set at 51 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Monday Night Football overs are 10-4 this season, going over by 5.8 points per game. However, the market seems to be adjusting for this recent trend. Since 2010, Monday Night Football totals of 49+ are 35-24 to the under.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
Jackson looking to regain MVP form
Entering play in Week 11, Lamar Jackson was the odds-on favorite to win his 2nd consecutive MVP award. However, after scoring only 16 points against the Steelers, Jackson has slipped behind Josh Allen. The good news for Jackson and the Ravens is that this is a spot that, historically, they have played well.
In games that Jackson has started, the Ravens are 6-1 ATS following a SU loss since the beginning of last season. Following a Week 9 loss on the road against Cleveland, Baltimore responded with an emphatic 41-10 victory over Denver, as the most recent example of how Baltimore is capable of responding in these situations.
What to expect from Baltimore’s defense
Through 11 weeks, Baltimore’s defense has unquestionably been the weak link of this football team. Entering the weekend, they ranked 21st in EPA/play and 10th in success rate – indicating that they have had problems allowing explosive plays. Sure enough, this unit has allowed the 2nd-most passing plays resulting in 20+ yards, ahead of only the Jaguars.
This unit could be in trouble tonight, facing a Chargers offense that has not been afraid to throw the ball downfield in recent weeks. Since their bye week, Justin Herbert has the 4th-highest aDOT of any qualified quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
Herbert, Chargers offense firing on all cylinders
From Week 1 to Week 4, the Chargers’ offense was unquestionably a run-first unit. Through the first month of the season, they ranked 5th in rush rate, and Herbert still hadn’t posted more than 179 passing yards in a single game.
However, since their Week 5 bye, this offense has looked completely different. Across their last 6 games, the Chargers’ offense ranks only 12th in rush rate, and Herbert has the 3rd-most passing yards of any quarterback in the league during that stretch. Herbert’s aDOT has also gone from a pedestrian 7.8 to a more robust 9.9, which is only further proof in a complete overhaul in offensive philosophy.
The Chargers aren’t the most talented football team on the field in most of their games, but the coaching staff has done an excellent job getting the most out of the players they have in the building.
Can the Chargers’ defense continue to play at a high level?
The Chargers’ defense has been a model of consistency this season, having allowed 20 points or fewer in 9 of their 10 games. Since their bye week, their defense ranks 8th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate overall, but they have been particularly good against the pass.
One area of potential vulnerability for this unit is how they have fared against opposing ground attacks. During their last 6 games, the Chargers rank only 17th in success rate. Facing Derrick Henry and the mobile Lamar Jackson, this group could have their hands full on Monday Night Football.
Ravens vs. Chargers Prediction
This is a high total for any NFL game, but particularly considering that both the Ravens and Chargers play at a relatively slow pace. Since Week 6, the Chargers rank 20th in pace, and Baltimore ranks 22nd in pace. During that time period, these two teams also rank in the top 12 in rush rate, meaning that there is likely to be less clock stoppage than if these teams were more pass-heavy. The under should have a good chance to cash in a competitive game script.
PICK: Under 51 (-112, DraftKings)
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