Ravens at Chiefs Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Kelce, Rice, and Jackson
What can we expect on Thursday Night Football from Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Lamar Jackson? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Thursday, September 5, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
On Thursday night, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will travel to Arrowhead for an AFC Championship Game rematch against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, the return of regular season football means the return of all the normal betting options, giving fans plenty of options to get involved in the action at their favorite sportsbook!
Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.
If looking to wager on the player prop market to make the season opener a little bit more exciting, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Thursday evening!
Ravens at Chiefs NFL Player Props
- Rice Over/Under 5.5 Receptions
- Kelce Over/Under 59.5 Receiving Yards
- Jackson Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-130), Bally
According to Kansas City beat reporter Nate Taylor, “Every prominent member of the Chiefs offense – including Reid, Mahomes, and tight end Travis Kelce – has agreed emphatically that Rice has improved in just about every aspect.” One report referred to Rice as “the most consistent receiver in training camp.”
Some people will dismiss these comments as usual preseason talk, but it’s important to note that these compliments are not being handed out universally. They also come on the back of Rice ranking 2nd on the team in receptions, targets, and receiving yards as a rookie. From Week 12 to Week 17, Rice was the 5th-most targeted receiver in the NFL and ranked 3rd in receptions. He had 6+ receptions in five of his final six regular season contests.
The Ravens are a formidable opponent, but they ranked only 12th in DVOA against WR1 in 2023 and lost their defensive coordinator this past offseason. Expect Rice to be heavily involved in the Kansas City passing attack on Thursday, especially with his main competition for targets being a 34-year-old tight end, a rookie 165-pound wide receiver, and a player who was cut during the preseason by his former team.
Travis Kelce UNDER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115), Bally
Entering play in 2024, Travis Kelce ranks 4th in receiving yards, 4th in receptions, and tied for 5th in touchdowns on the all-time leaderboards at the tight end position. There is little doubt that he will be in the Hall of Fame one day, with his postseason accomplishments only further strengthening his candidacy.
All of that being said, in the last 25 years, there are only 17 instances of a 34+ year old tight end having 500+ receiving yards during the regular season. No tight end has ever topped 1,000 receiving yards this late into their career, and that includes all-time legends such as Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Witten, and Rob Gronkowski.
Kelce turns 35 years old on October 5, right before the team hosts the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 5. His yards after the catch have declined each of the last 3 seasons, and his average depth of target has declined in each of the last five seasons, down from 9.2 yards in 2018 to 6.7 yards in 2023.
A line of 59.5 receiving yards on a weekly basis for Kelce would put him at 1,011 receiving yards for a 17-game season. This is simply going to be a systems under wager every time Kelce’s receiving yards line is posted at this high of a number. In this particular situation, it doesn’t hurt that Baltimore was the 8th-best defense in the NFL against tight ends in 2023, by DVOA.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-168), FanDuel
Lamar Jackson is fresh off of his 2nd career MVP award, but he still only had 7 regular season games last season with multiple touchdown passes – only 3 of which came on the road. Heading into Week 1 this year, Jackson has a completely new offensive line, with three starters leaving for other teams this past offseason. The net result is 46 departing starts from last season, which will be replaced by a pair of rookies and the human turnstile, Daniel Raalele at right guard.
Kansas City lost a couple of pieces on defense during the offseason, but this is still a unit that finished 5th in DVOA, 3rd in EPA/play, and 2nd in success rate against the pass in 2023. They were much more vulnerable on the ground, which could mean it’s more likely we see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry than we do Jackson throwing the ball 35 times behind a brand new protection unit.
As long as the Chiefs don’t get burned deep for a touchdown, this wager should have a great chance to cash.
Check out more DFS sites with Fantasy Football pick’em and check out our Betr Picks promo code.
Image Credit: Getty Images