Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros Odds, Preview, Picks & Prediction — Tuesday, Sept. 28
Rays vs. Astros Odds
| Rays Odds | +120 |
| Astros Odds | -142 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 28 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. |
| TV | SUN |
On Tuesday evening, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros will begin a three game set at Minute Maid Park. Tampa Bay enters play on Tuesday on a four game winning streak. Houston has lost four consecutive contests, but still owns a five game division lead in the American League West with less than a week remaining in the regular season.. In the series opener, the Rays will send Michael Wacha to the hill, who will be opposed by Jose Urquidy. Oddsmakers are expecting Houston to get back in the win column in this one, pricing the Astros as -142 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Rays +120
On the surface, Wacha has been one of the most hittable pitchers in Major League Baseball in 2021 with a dreadful 5.49 ERA, 5.84 xERA, and a 4.61 FIP. However, across his last 29.1 innings of work, he has been serviceable—posting a 4.30 ERA and a 3.26 ERA. In that span, he has shown flashes of 2017-Wacha, striking-out an elite 30.3 percent of opposing hitters against a miniscule 3.3 percent walk-rate. Still, a 15.0 percent barrel-rate since August 20 means it is more than likely that his recent hot stretch will come to an end sooner rather than later. Wacha could have a difficult outing tonight against a very good Houston lineup.
At the trade deadline, we wrote a piece discussing the strength of the Rays’ lineup and how we liked their chances at plus-money to emerge as American League East division winners. Since August 1, Tampa Bay’s offense ranks third in OPS and first in ISO. This lineup does not have many household names, but they have arguably the most balanced group of hitters in baseball, with the ability to plug-and-play talented players no matter the matchup. Expect the Rays to deploy seven left-handed bats on Tuesday against the right-hander, Urquidy.
Since the All-Star break, Tampa Bay’s relief corps ranks sixth in the league in bullpen FIP. Having an off-day on Monday, the Rays have no usage concerns heading into the final week of the regular season. However, it would be surprising to see Manager Kevin Cash be overzealous with his bullpen this week, considering that he has already secured home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.
Houston Astros -142
In 18 starts in 2021, Urquidy has been excellent with a 3.56 ERA, 3.83 xERA, and a 3.93 FIP. On the year, he ranks in the 62nd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, walk-percentage, and chase rate. While Tampa Bay has the ability to insert seven left-handed bats into their lineup for this game, it does not confer the benefit that it usually does. In his career, Urquidy has been far better against lefty bats than he has against righties—posting a 3.24 FIP and a 0.77 WHIP against left-handed hitters. Bettors should expect a strong outing from Urquidy this evening.
Over the last two weeks, Houston’s offense ranks fifth in both OPS and ISO. Throughout the year, the Astros have been inconsistent as a unit, but they seem to be peaking at the right time of the year as the calendar prepares to flip to October. Carlos Correa has 16 RBI in September. Alex Bregman has been dominant since returning from the injured list—hitting four home runs and driving in 18 runs during the season’s final month. Wacha is likely to have a difficult time getting outs on Tuesday.
If there is one major concern for Houston heading into the postseason, it is their bullpen. This unit has not been terrible—ranking 11th in bullpen FIP since the All-Star break, but they lack a truly dominant option in the late innings outside of their closer Ryan Pressly. Still, the off-day on Monday means that everyone is rested and available for this evening.
Rays vs. Astros Picks
The Rays and the Astros will both prioritize staying healthy and limiting the usage out of their bullpens during the final week of the regular season. Assuming that neither manager will be aggressive with their bullpen in this contest, which ultimately means little with regard to playoff positioning, the starting pitching matchup becomes all the more important.
Houston has a clear advantage with Urquidy on the mound against Wacha in this one. Tampa Bay is likely to deploy a lefty-heavy lineup, which only makes it more likely that Urquidy will have a strong performance this evening. Bettors should strongly consider a play on the Astros tonight.
PICK: Astros ML (-142)
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