Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Preview, & Prediction — Wednesday, August 11th
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds
| Rays Odds | +102 |
| Red Sox | -120 |
| Over/Under | 10 |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 11 |
| Time | 7:10 pm ET |
| TV | NESN |
| Odds accurate as of Wednesday at BetMGM | |
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Yesterday, the Boston Red Sox suffered another devastating loss—blowing a 4-1 late-inning lead against the Tampa Bay Rays after Eduardo Rodriguez turned in a fantastic performance across 5.1 innings of work. Yet, oddsmakers are seemingly not overly-concerned with another Boston bullpen collapse as they have once again made them the betting favorite this evening. The starting pitching matchup for the second game of this pivotal division series will feature Josh Fleming for the Rays against Nathan Eovaldi.
Rays-Red Sox Pitching Preview
Fleming is a paragon of mediocrity when it comes to starting pitching. Across 87.1 innings this season, his 4.12 ERA is exactly league average, and his 4.18 FIP is two percent below league average. Owning a 15.8 strikeout-percentage, and a fastball-velocity that ranks in the eighth percentile amongst qualified pitchers, Fleming is far from a dominant force on the mound, but he has been a dependable rotation piece for the Rays, who possess the best record in the American League with less than two months left to play in the regular season. Fleming was hit hard in his start on July 17 against the Atlanta Braves, but that is the only instance in his last six trips to the mound in which he has surrendered more than three earned runs. He should be able to turn in a competitive performance in this one against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 20th in OPS and 24th in ISO over the last two weeks.
Eovaldi is the polar opposite archetype of a starting pitcher compared to Fleming. Eovaldi has a fastball-velocity that ranks in the 87th percentile in the league and has been wildly volatile as a rotation member for Boston. In 22 starts this season, he has allowed five earned runs or more on six occasions. He has also posted 13 outings in which he has given up two earned runs or less. To make matters even more complicated, Eovaldi has not even been consistent against the same teams. In his first start of the year against the Rays, he was dominant across seven frames, allowing only a single earned run on three hits. In his most recent start against Tampa Bay, he was attacked for five earned runs and forced from the game after only 5.1 innings of work. The Rays’ offense ranks third in OPS and ISO over the last 14 days—a formidable task for an erratic pitcher such as Eovaldi, who is prone to extremely poor performances.
Yesterday’s blown lead was devastating for Boston because, instead of climbing-back within three games of first place, they enter play tonight five games behind Tampa Bay in the American League East. It was also devastating because their closer, Matt Barnes threw 27 pitches in the loss, making his availability unlikely this evening, considering that he also appeared in both Saturday and Sunday’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays had Monday off and only used two relief arms in yesterday’s win.
Picks: Bet on Rays Moneyline & Runs
In this matchup, the Rays have a significant offensive advantage and a starting pitcher that should at least be able to hold his own against a struggling Red Sox lineup. If this game is close into the latter frames, Tampa Bay has a much more rested, and a significantly more reliable bullpen. The wrong team seems to be favored in this one. Bettors should seize the opportunity to wager on the Rays at plus-money.
Pick: Rays ML (+102)
Last night’s game appeared on its way to hitting the under before the Red Sox bullpen collapsed in the late innings. Oddsmakers have released the exact same market price for this evening’s affair, likely factoring in potential run-scoring opportunities in the late innings. Fleming has allowed two or more earned runs in 10 of his last 15 trips to the mound. Eovaldi has surrendered five or more earned runs in four of his last 10 starts. At first pitch tonight, the humidity is going to be high, which favors the pitching, but a projected temperature above 80 degrees and a 10 miles-per-hour wind blowing out towards left-center field will play to the hitters’ advantage. Tampa Bay’s bullpen remains elite, but bettors should not trust Boston’s relief unit to slow down any offense in the late innings. Across their last six games, the Red Sox bullpen has allowed 21 runs in their last 21 innings of work. Bettors should consider the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 10 (-110)
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