2024 RBC Heritage Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-04-17 15:09:10

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 RBC Heritage. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus today!

With no rest for the weary, the PGA TOUR offers another signature event at the RBC Heritage. Last year, Matt Fitzpatrick outlasted Jordan Spieth in a playoff to win his first tartan jacket (along with a lot of money). In the past, the RBC Heritage has been a weaker field after players take a break post-Augusta. No longer. The field is loaded with the top talent in golf all vying for a pile of cash. Let’s break down the course and field before building our initial betting card.

RBC Heritage Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – April 17th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the RBC Heritage:

• 2023 – Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
• 2022 – Jordan Spieth (-13)
• 2021 – Stewart Cink (-19)
• 2020 – Webb Simpson (-22)
• 2019 – CT Pan (-12)
• 2018 – Satoshi Kodaira (-12)
• 2017 – Wesley Bryan (-13)

The field could not be more stacked and is set at 69 golfers with no cut. The top 50 OWGR players that tee it up on the PGA TOUR will all be in attendance, except for Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama. As of this writing, Scottie Scheffler remains in the field after his second Masters victory.

Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, and Matt Fitzpatrick are our course horses this week. Spieth played a playoff against the other two in the last two events, winning two years ago and losing to Matt Fitzpatrick last year. Fresh off a brutal two days at Augusta National, Spieth continues to search for form. The friendly confines of Harbour Town Golf Links could be the elixir.

Fitzpatrick loves this course and played here as a child. The victory last season clearly meant a lot to Fitzpatrick and his family. While Cantlay has not won at the RBC Heritage, he leads the field in total strokes gained.

Scheffler and Rory McIlroy headline the field, while Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele join the top of the odds board after their T10 finishes at Augusta National.

2024 RBC Heritage Betting Preview

• Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
• Date: April 18 – 21
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,191
• Greens: Bermuda

Harbor Town Golf Links is a ball-striking golf course. The course is so short, lined with trees and rife with doglegs, that golfers will succeed if they can successfully play target golf for four days. Driving distance and SG: OTT are both not very relevant. Instead, we need to find players that find fairways in great position.

Approach is the key to victory at Harbour Town Golf Links. I know. Instead of emphasizing length and driving, we will ramp up the weight of SG: Approach and add ball striking to our model to favor players that are very precise into some of the smallest greens on the PGA TOUR.

Around-the-green play will be crucial this week as players aim to save par when they miss tiny greens. When Stewart Cink was victorious in 2021, he put on a Texas wedge display for the ages, often using the putter around the tightly mown areas surrounding the greens. While we should see plenty of birdies, players will need to hold serve when they are a bit errant with their approach shots.

We won’t see that many long irons because the course is so short. However, proximity to the hole is very important as players seek birdie opportunities. Every par 3 on the course lies between 175-200 yards, so focusing on the best players in the field relative to distance from the flag will come in handy.

The three par 5s represent the best scoring opportunities on the course. Par on these holes will not get the job done since every player will get four rounds. A birdie on all three of these holes, with a few others, seems to be the recipe for contention on Sunday.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a fun venue because the best players in the world get to show off every facet of their game. With distance not being a concern this week, any skill set can win at this course. Let’s build a betting card.

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2024 RBC Heritage: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• Ball Striking
• Fairways
• Proximity
• Par 4: 400-450
• SG: ARG
• SG: Putting

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I bet Tommy on my drive home from Augusta, Georgia. There was something about playing well at the Masters combined with the price that made me believe this was a great place to start my card. Now, Tommy is below +2000 in most spots, so we are swimming in expected value.

Tommy has good results at Harbour Town Golf Links, with a couple of T20 finishes in his last two starts. While he ranks a bit low in my statistical model, he has gained around the green and putting in nearly every start at this tournament. Tommy is a grinder that routinely plays in the best fields. He continues to knock at the door of his first victory on the PGA TOUR, and I think he was worth a stab at this price.

We booked him at 30/1 for one unit.

Ludvig Aberg +1400 (BetMGM)

These picks are out of order because I am only betting Ludvig since I bet Tommy at a higher number. I don’t think I would be willing to play Aberg and Fleetwood at their current prices together on my card unless I wanted to fill the back end up with long shots. In such a small field, I want some firepower.

Aberg was incredibly impressive at Augusta National. He seemed unflappable on Sunday. Standing within high-five range of the young gun throughout Sunday, he handled the pressure of playing with the tournament’s fan favorite, Max Homa, very well. After his double bogey at #11, I assumed Aberg was done for the day, but he battled back with two late birdies all while being surrounded by a sea of Homa supporters.

I am very bullish on Aberg’s stardom. Outside of my anecdotal reasoning above, he ranks top 5 in total strokes gained, ball striking, and proximity. While his around-the-green game needs some refining, we have seen players use the Texas wedge around this course with the short fringe that surrounds tiny greens.

Aberg makes our card for two units because we were able to get in on Tommy early and also because we got a great price on…

Tom Kim +8000 (FanDuel)

DraftKings features a +4500 price tag on Kim this week. Kim falls under the “driving home on I-95 and I can’t believe my eyes at this price on Tom Kim who just went -5 on Sunday at the Masters” category. When I saw 80-1, I bet the outright blind knowing that the price felt too high for me regardless of his course fit and underlying numbers.

Well, the number was too high. Kim has moved up drastically across all boards.

You won’t find strokes gained statistics to back up this selection, and he missed the cut in his first start at Harbour Town in 2023. None of that matters. He will hopefully parlay the form from Sunday at Augusta to his fourth PGA TOUR victory.

Lucas Glover +7500 (FanDuel)

Again, Glover is our fourth pick because we already booked a great price on Kim and Fleetwood. Glover played very well at Augusta National and brings a wealth of experience at this golf course.

After his resurgent 2023, I thought Glover would regress in 2024. While he has (relative to back-to-back victories in 2023), he has been playing very well with the better players on the PGA TOUR. RBC Heritage is a great fit for Lucas because distance is not a concern. Instead, Glover can use his experience to plod around the various doglegs.

Glover ranks 4th in fairways and 4th in SG: ARG. He finds himself in the top 10 in a variety of other statistical categories. Looking to capitalize on recent form at the bottom of our card, we close out with Glover at a familiar course for the veteran.

2024 RBC Heritage Betting Card

One-and-Done Pick: Between Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg

RBC Heritage Units: 4

2024 Net Units: 123.75

The Scottie Scheffler Masters victory was the first time a golf future ever paid dividends for your humble narrator. Not only was my trip to Augusta National for Championship Sunday one of the best days of my life, I was able to enjoy watching an outright win a tournament in front of my very own eyes. I will never forget standing elbow-to-elbow in gallery after gallery at the end of that Sunday to be a bystander to history.

As a result, we are likely going to profit this golf season. So, despite not sniffing an outright for months, we are very profitable this year. Thus, I did not mind adding a bit more to this week’s card.

Futures: With a promotional bet ahead of last week, I bet a Scottie Scheffler (Masters) and Ludvig Aberg (PGA Championship) double. The ticket is good for 100 units. So, the Scottie victory already paid a great windfall and added some value to a future tournament. After watching Ludvig play at the Masters, I am very excited to have him on my PGA Championship betting card this early.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images