Royals vs. Astros Odds, Picks, & Predictions — Monday, August 23rd

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-08-23 16:43:39

Nick Galaida looks at MLB odds for the Royals vs. Astros. Follow along as he previews the matchup and gives two free picks for Monday night. Make sure to check out this insane promo, a $5,000 risk-free bet from Caesars!

Royals vs Astros Odds

On Monday evening, the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros will meet for the second time in less than a week. Entering play, the Royals have won six of their last seven games. Houston is fresh off of a series win against the Seattle Mariners. Tonight, Kansas City will send Daniel Lynch to the hill, who will be countered by Zack Greinke. Oddsmakers are expecting the Astros to avenge being swept by the Royals last week, as they are listed as heavy -255 favorites on the money line at “online sportsbooks”:​​/sports-betting.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Kansas City Royals

In eight big league starts, Lynch has posted a 5.12 ERA, 6.08 xERA, and a 4.23 FIP. In 38.2 innings of work, he has only struck-out 18.3 percent of opposing batters while walking 9.5 percent of hitters. Part of Lynch’s inability to put away hitters likely stems from the fact that he struggles to get ahead in the count—throwing a first pitch strike only 52.7 percent of the time. In his most recent outing, Lynch delivered seven strong innings of work against the Astros, allowing only a single run on four hits, but he is going to have a difficult time shutting down a dangerous Houston offense twice within the same week. Expect a more tumultuous outing from Lynch in this one.

Lynch will be supported by a sub-par lineup. Kansas City ranks 13th in OPS and 17th in ISO over the last week. Over the last two weeks, the Royals rank only 21st in OPS and 28th in ISO. Even during their recent surge to mediocrity over the last seven days, they have scored four runs or less four times in seven games.

Heading into the new week, the Royals’ bullpen is in relatively good shape with nobody having appeared in back to back games, and nobody having thrown more than 16 pitches over the three days. Everyone should be available if needed this evening.

Houston Astros

Greinke is finally beginning to show some signs of decline in his age-37 campaign, but he has nevertheless been a reliable rotation piece for the Astros every fifth day. Through 25 turns in the rotation, he owns a 3.43 ERA, 4.04 xERA, and a 4.36 FIP. However, his 17.9 strikeout-percentage is the worst mark of his career since his 2006 season. Greinke has remained effective in large part due to an elite 4.8 percent walk-rate that has helped him limit baserunners to the tune of a 1.11 WHIP. In his last seven trips to the mound, Greinke has posted an outstanding 2.82 ERA, but a 5.21 FIP during that stretch suggests that he has been far more lucky than good. In his most recent start against Kansas City, he delivered six innings of work, allowing only a single earned run, but he did not strike-out a single opposing hitter. He is still capable of strong outings, but Greinke is no longer an automatic tail at this point in his career.

Over the last week of action, Houston ranks fourth in both OPS and ISO while striking-out a miniscule 15.5 percent of the time, which is the best in baseball during that stretch. This lineup has been solid over the last two weeks as well, ranking fifth in OPS and 10th in ISO. This group should be able to take advantage of the inexperienced Lynch tonight, especially considering that this is their second look at him in less than a week.

Houston’s relief corps possesses the third best FIP of any team in baseball over the last month. This is a rested unit entering the new week with nobody having thrown in back-to-back days and only Pedro Baez having appeared in two of the last three games.

Picks

Houston was inexplicably swept by Kansas City last week at Kauffman Stadium. The Astros are still the far-superior team and that should manifest over the next few days now that they are back in the comfort of Minute Maid Park. Bettors should trust the Astros to generate plenty of scoring opportunities against Lynch tonight and for Greinke to do enough to keep Houston in the lead throughout the game. Both the Astros on the -1.5 run line and the over at its current price have value in this contest.

Picks: Astros -1.5 (-120), Over 9 (+100)

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