MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today — Friday, August 20th
MLB betting analyst Sloan Piva peruses baseball odds every day to deliver his best bets. Keep reading to find his free picks for Friday, August 20th.
Ups and downs, highs and lows… yesterday we celebrated going 2-1 on our Wednesday Bets of the Day, today we are cursing the Phillies for struggling with the D-Backs and wondering what happened to Brandon Woodruff in St. Louis.
But we are crazy about the MLB, and we are hopelessly fueled by the grind that is betting on baseball. What’s not to love about it?
With that said, let’s diversify our MLB portfolio and invest in some low-risk, high-reward bets for the Friday slate. The only thing we chase here is value, and the only tickers we need are box scores and advanced statistical data (due diligence, for the win!).
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from MLB.com, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Today
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs. Keegan Akin
PICK: Braves -1.5 1st 5 Innings (+105)
The Braves are an MLB-best 9-1 in their last 10 games, and they have scored 66 runs in that span (6.6 runs/game). The Orioles have lost 15 consecutive contests, their second-worst drought in franchise history, and they have scored 42 runs during that streak (2.8 runs/game). So, yeah, we aren’t terribly surprised BetMGM has Atlanta -2.5 on the run line and -250 on the moneyline.
This game is like matching up peak Zack Morris with Screech Powers (RIP Dustin Diamond). But that doesn’t mean it offers no value whatsoever. Open up the betting window for Bravos-Orioles, and you’ll see a nice juicy +105 next to the Braves’ -1.5 line over the first five innings. What does that mean? If Atlanta leads by two runs after five frames, you’re taking home some bacon.
I’ll be ordering extra bacon for this one, as my LDL numbers have improved and Atlanta seems like a no-brainer. Fried has logged four straight quality starts, and he’s surrendered one run or fewer in three straight games. Across those three games—all six-inning outings—he walked just two total batters. The 27-year old southpaw has lowered his ERA from 5.12 on June 1 to 3.78 today, and I expect it to go down even more tonight.
The Braves are 34-27 on the road, the fifth-best away record in the majors. They are 31-18 against sub-.500 teams. They are 48-36 both as a favorite and in night games. And they are 20-12 against left-handed starters (fourth-best in the MLB). Enter southpaw Keegan Akin, who has an 0-7 record to go with an 8.13 ERA and 1.824 WHIP. Akin gave up three earned runs in four innings in Boston his last time out, and surrendered six runs in three innings against Detroit one game prior. Red-hot Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, who just hit for the cycle the other day, could take care of this prop himself. Take the easy W and roll with the Bravos after five.
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Michael Wacha
MLB Bet: White Sox -120
I know Lucas Giolito has hit some rough patches this season, and the Rays offense has been awesome since the All-Star break… but come on, the White Sox are -120 with Giolito vs. Wacha? I’m all over that.
Take out a pair of ugly six-run outings for Giolito, and you’re looking at a stud stretch. Since May 19, the Sox ace has surrendered 37 runs across 99.1 innings over 16 starts. If you remove those two six-run outliers, he has surrendered 25 runs across 90.1 innings over 14 starts.
Even better, Giolito has fared well against the Rays. He faced them earlier this season in Chicago, and notched a quality start after going six strong with just three earned runs. He allowed just four hits that game, walked just two, and fanned seven while eliciting 16 whiffs.
Wacha, meanwhile, has been wiggety wiggety wack. The 29-year old veteran has a 2-4 record, a 5.91 ERA and 1.500 WHIP on the season, and he’s allowed 18 homers in 85.1 innings. His hard-hit data (42.8% hard-hit rate, 89.4 average exit velo) and opponent slash lines (.303/.351/.525) should have the slugging South Siders salivating on sight. Don’t call the Alliteration Police, I’m overcaffeinated over here!
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Austin Gomber vs. Tyler Gilbert
MLB Bet: Rockies -1.5 (+100)
Everyone and their mom will bet on rookie Tyler Gilbert to win this one, after he pitched a no-hitter against the Padres in his first career Major League start six days ago. But I’m here to tell you that Gilbert’s feat that night was a statistical anomaly, and that chasing random heroic games never proves lucrative.
Gilbert had never even pitched more than two innings in a game before his August 14 no-no, so it’s especially remarkable he was able to blank one of the better offenses in baseball. But I expect a massive return to the mean for the lefty, who will be pitching at the dreaded Coors Field for the first time. The Rockies are 41-21 at home, the second-best home record behind the first-place Giants. Colorado also has a 20-11 record against sub-.500 teams, and a 22-16 mark against lefties. And Trevor Story has been hitting like the All-Star he should have been.
Facing Gilbert this evening will be tall southpaw Austin Gomber, who is 9-7 wiith a serviceable 4.09 ERA and 1.145 WHIP. Gomber has limited hard contact all season (34.4% hard-hit rate, 86.9 mph average exit velo), and he’s 5-1 at home Coors this season with a 1.70 ERA and 0.850 WHIP. I’m going with Gomber and a Story donger for an easy run-line jobber.
Image Credit: Imagn