Primetime Parlay: Saints vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks

Saints vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay

ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool uses thousands of simulations of RotoGrinders’ statistical projections to help bettors gain on edge when building same-game parlays. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Monday Night Football same-game parlay for the Saints vs Buccaneers.

Happy Monday, Grinders! Week 13 in the NFL closes with an NFC South showdown in Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers welcome the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs sit atop the division while the Saints dwell in the basement desperately in need of a win to keep their season on life support. With a win, the Buccaneers will obtain sort of a hammerlock on the division and become a very interesting playoff team. Let’s preview the contest and build a same-game parlay ticket.

Same Game Parlay for Saints vs. Buccaneers

At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook assigns a three-point spread in favor of the Buccaneers for Monday Night Football. The spread has moved considerably since opening at -6.5. Per SAO, 84% of betting handle on the spread rests with the New Orleans Saints.

The game total sits at 41.5 points although at BetMGM the number is at 40.5. Strangely, 97% of the money is on the under, perhaps putting a halt to the upward movement since the total opened at 39.5. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring offense with the Saints specifically averaging a paltry 12.3 points per game over their last three contests.

For injuries, the Buccaneers suffered a major injury with RT Tristan Warfs reportedly out for 3-4 weeks. While this does Tampa Bay no favors in the short-term, Warfs will likely be back for the playoffs if the Bucs can hang on to the division. Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate, and Russell Gage are all questionable to play. Fournette should see a reduced role given his injury status and the emergence of Rachaad White.

The Saints will be without Juwan Johnson on Monday night due to an ankle injury but should have Mark Ingram available to play after practicing in full on Friday. Marshon Lattimore is highly questionable for Monday Night Football but would be a timely boost to the Saints’ defense. The Saints have not changed their defensive scheme even in Lattimore’s absence. We should not forget the long-standing feud between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore that continues to play out over the years.

The Saints will look to avoid their season’s funeral with a big performance on the road. The Buccaneers look to get the ship back on course as the season heads into the final act. What should we do? We should use ParlayIQ to build ourselves a fun primetime sweat. Let’s do it.

Same Game Parlay Picks – Saints & Buccaneers Props

Alvin Kamara Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Alvin Kamara is the ultimate weapon for the New Orleans Saints and quite possibly the only threat worth the Buccaneers’ attention. Kamara continues to see volume despite the Saints’ woes.

Despite his recent struggles rushing the football and his lack of touchdowns, Kamara continues to have a big role in the passing game. Over his last four games, Kamara has 20 total targets for 16 receptions. I was a bit taken aback when I saw this line as I perused sports betting sites.

ParlayIQ would be equally astonished as 76% of simulations for tonight’s game include Kamara going over this receiving total. Given the strength of the Buccaneers’ front with respect to rushing, Kamara having to handle a bunch of short dumpoffs from Andy Dalton makes plenty of sense. We start here and will likely be looking pretty good regardless of the other legs we include in our parlay.

Chris Godwin Over 68.5 Receiving Yards

Death. Taxes. Chris Godwin targets. Since returning from his early-season injury, Godwin has double-digit targets in six of his eight starts. He does not average a high receiving output per his target but has by far the most solid floor on the Buccaneers.

If Marshon Lattimore returns, he will likely be glued to Mike Evans. Tom Brady has never been shy when looking for the path of least resistance, leaving Godwin available for his normal 10-12 targets. We might not see a long run after a catch but I do think his volume alone should push him over this total. We add Godwin as our second leg.

Tom Brady Over 271.5 Passing Yards

Correlating positively with the aforementioned Godwin leg, we are going to take the over on Tom Brady and his passing. The Buccaneers are second in the league in passing play percentage even after taking a dip over the last few weeks. Tom Brady is going to throw and throw and throw and throw.

Brady’s passing is gamescript proof. The passing game is an extension of the running game and if the Saints were ever able to get ahead in this game, Tom is going to be throwing the football all over the yard.

When you already have included the above two legs, ParlayIQ likes this over in 66% of those simulations. This script is looking more and more like it favors the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay Moneyline

Well, if that’s the case, ParlayIQ wants us to add the Bucs to win the game. I agree.

Alvin Kamara having a big game in receiving does not necessarily correlate with a victory. Instead, it might actually be more correlated with the Buccaneers boatracing the Saints from the start. I think we should cap off our ticket with a Buccaneers victory.

The good news, as well, is that since all of our legs are overs, if the Saints were ever to have a lead we have an opportunity to hedge late if the Buccaneers side looks in trouble. While I don’t think I would hedge, the opportunity is there if our other three legs already hit.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Parlay Odds

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ParlayIQ suggests the following price for tonight’s same-game parlay ticket:

Same Game Parlay Picks

FanDuel Sportsbook gives us a bit of a boost with the following price:

Same Game Parlay odds

Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click

PLACE THIS BET ON

Parlay Odds: +785

Risk: 1/2 unit to win 3.92 units

Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

  • Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

  • Joe Cistaro has blogged on RotoGrinders since January 2017. He fell in love with daily fantasy sports after winning an NBA single-entry tournament on FanDuel in the fall of 2013. A small-time player, Joe enjoys writing about MLB and NBA DFS while connecting with the RotoGrinders community.

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