Saints vs. Jaguars Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
Week 7 of the NFL season starts with an interconference showdown as the Jaguars travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints in the SuperDome. The Saints are favored by two points at home, and the game total is set at 40.5. The Jaguars defense has struggled a bit this season, particularly with the pass defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL, but they have managed to keep scoring in check and only allowed 17 points to the Chiefs and 20 points to the Bills.
The Saints offense hasn’t looked tremendously good either, scoring the 9th-fewest points per game in the NFL, although Derek Carr has been dealing with a shoulder injury that appears to be getting better (Carr threw for a season-high 353 yards last week against Houston). The major injury news here is that Trevor Lawrence is Questionable and expected to be a game-time decision – I’m expecting him to play but if he doesn’t, C.J. Beathard has been priced up appropriately at $10000 on FanDuel and $8600 on DraftKings.
Saints vs. Jaguars Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
With a close line, a lower total, and some injury questions surrounding the Jaguars passing game, I expect ownership to be fairly spread out in the DFS contests tonight. I’ll aim to take advantage of any pricing discrepancies and overlooked players, and that’s leading me to be overweight the Saints passing offense. Alvin Kamara will likely draw strong ownership with at least 84 total yards and 3 receptions in each of his three games this season, and I expect the Jaguars receivers to be popular as well with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk each putting up some strong games this season.
I don’t expect to fade those players entirely but given how the Jags passing defense has looked so far this year and with the Saints playing indoors at home I’ll aim to be overweight Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed. Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 against Green Bay, and played through it but only combined for 413 passing yards in Weeks 3 – 5. He looked much better last week with 353 passing yards, and I think the field may overlook the fact that this is his first home game with Alvin Kamara since presumably getting healthier, against a poor pass defense.
On the Jaguars side, there are some pricing discrepancies between the two sites that will impact which players I’m over the field on. I’m assuming Trevor Lawrence plays, although if he ends up sitting, I could end up overweight on C.J. Beathard as he’s proven to be a competent back-up QB and would be underpriced as the starting QB.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
While we’ll want to consider the scoring on each site and set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to winning lineups. Each week, I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.
I touched on this above, but with the pricing differences on Jacksonville players between the two sites, the rule I’m willing to break this slate is being overweight running backs on FanDuel and wide receivers on DraftKings. Normally, with the half-point per reception scoring on FanDuel, touchdowns carry greater weight, and I’m more likely to play running backs and quarterbacks, while aiming to be over the field on wide receivers on DraftKings. FanDuel seems to have over-compensated on the prices for Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence this week, however. Lawrence is the most expensive player on the salary list for FanDuel at $16000, while he is just the third-most expensive player on DraftKings at $9600. Etienne is similarly overpriced at $15,500 on FanDuel compared to $10,200 on DraftKings. The Jags receivers Calvin Ridley ($11,500 FD) and Christian Kirk ($11,000 FD) are much more appealing on FanDuel at nearly two-thirds the cost of Etienne, despite the scoring differences.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
I discussed how I’d be deviating from my normal approach based on the pricing between the two sites above, but there are some additional price discrepancies that we can possibly take advantage of with our lineups tonight. On DraftKings, the Jaguars defense is priced much below the Saints, with Jacksonville at $3800 while the Saints are priced at $5400 – more than both kickers and even more than Rashid Shaheed. I’ll likely end up with more of the Jags’ defense as a result; the spread (slightly) favors the Saints, and the game is in New Orleans, but defensive scoring is too random for that big of a price gap.
On the Saints side – speaking of Rashid Shaheed – the New Orleans WR3 is too cheap at just $5000 on DraftKings. Shaaheed won’t always put up big point totals, with three games under 6.3 DK points on the season, but when he hits he can go for long plays – with two other games of 18.3 DK points or more.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
One position that it makes sense to go overweight on FanDuel tonight is an old favorite for the single-game format – tight end. Both Evan Engram ($8500) and Taysom Hill ($8000) are priced below the defensive units and the Jacksonville kicker tonight. This doesn’t make much sense on most nights, but with Engram potentially gaining some targets with the Jags missing Zay Jones and Taysom Hill always a red zone possibility for the Saints, it makes even less sense on tonight’s slate.
I touched on the kicker and defensive unit pricing a bit in the DraftKings section, but it’s worth noting on FanDuel the price for both defenses is the same ($9000) while Saints kicker Blake Grupe is actually $1000 cheaper than Brandon McManus at just $8500. It makes sense, particularly if playing on both sites, to take advantage of the pricing and emphasize the New Orleans kicker and defense on FanDuel.
Good luck to everyone tonight and enjoy!