New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Saints vs. Chiefs Odds
| Saints Odds | +5.5 |
| Chiefs Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Date | Monday, October 7th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs will wrap up the NFL’s Week 5 slate with a Monday Night Football affair from Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Derek Carr and the Saints have an opportunity to pull themselves into a 3-way tie for 1st place in the NFC South with a victory. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will remain one of only two undefeated teams in the league if they can take care of business in front of their home fans.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 5.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 43 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Derek Carr has struggled in night games throughout his career. Carr is 2-8-2 ATS in road night games in his career, which Abrams’ research shows is the 3rd-worst mark of 177 quarterbacks in the last 20 years. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes are 45-12 SU as home favorites since the beginning of 2018.
New Orleans Saints Preview
Are their injury woes hurting offensive production?
There might not be an offensive line in the NFL missing more talent than the Saints heading into Week 5. After losing All-Pro center Erik McCoy to injured reserve, New Orleans also lost his replacement, Shane Lemieux, who played 74 snaps last weekend, but he has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup. RG Cesar Ruiz was enjoying a strong start to the campaign, but he has also been ruled out for Monday’s contest. LG Lucas Patrick didn’t practice didn’t practice on Saturday and might not play tonight either.
The Saints offensive line woes have led to rapid offensive regression. The team led the league in points scored through the first 2 weeks of the season, but they are averaging only 18 points per game the last 2 weeks. Their offense ranks 23rd in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate during that stretch. Being without their top short-yardage weapon, Taysom Hill, in Week 5, will only further complicate matters.
Can the Saints defense keep the team competitive?
New Orleans has seen their defensive production decline with each passing week – not a good sign heading into a hostile primetime matchup against the defending champions. The Saints’ early-season success is looking more and more like it was buoyed by a favorable matchup against the since-benched Bryce Young and rudderless Dallas Cowboys offensive attacks. The Eagles exploded for 460 yards of total offense against the Saints in Week 3, and their defense ranked only 15th in EPA/play, 10th in success rate, and 10th in pressure rate in Week 4 against an Atlanta offense that was missing a pair of starting offensive linemen.
This unit gets another good matchup, facing an injury-ravaged Kansas City offense, but it remains to be seen if they will be able to execute consistently enough to give Derek Carr a chance to pull an upset win on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
What to expect from Rice-less Chiefs
Wide receiver injuries are typically overblown in their importance, but it’s difficult to overstate how consequential the absence of Rashee Rice could be for this Kansas City offense. Rice leads all Chiefs pass catchers this season in receptions, targets, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, yards after catch, and receptions leading to a 1st down. If Rice were the team’s only offensive loss, it would be notable but likely manageable. His absence is particularly problematic, given that the team already has RB Isiah Pacheco, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and WR Hollywood Brown on injured reserve. The team will be without their top two running backs and top two wide receivers on Monday Night Football.
Kansas City defense making strides
The good news for the Chiefs is that their defense has steadily improved with each passing week in 2024. After allowing north of a 50% success rate in each of their first 2 games, Kansas City held Atlanta to a 43.3% success rate and only 17 points in Week 3. Last weekend, their defense held the Chargers to a 26.8% success rate, which was the best mark for any defense in the NFL.
Strength of opponent obviously factors into those improved statistics, with their latter two opponents being better matchups than the Ravens and Bengals to begin the year. That said, tonight’s matchup against the Saints’ depleted offense is much closer to the Falcons and Chargers games than it is to the Ravens or Bengals. Kansas City’s defense is well-positioned for another strong showing, and they are fully healthy ahead of kickoff, with EDGE Mike Danna expected to return to the field.
Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction
Simply, it’s very difficult to see either of these two offenses enjoying sustained success on Monday Night Football. New Orleans could be without 3 starting offensive linemen in addition to their backup center. Kansas City will be without their top two running backs and top two wide receivers.
Neither one of these defenses has been particularly great through 4 weeks this year, but both units have some top-tier playmakers, and the matchup should certainly favor mediocre defense over injury-ravaged offenses. It doesn’t hurt that these are two of the slowest-paced offenses in the entire NFL.
Assuming we don’t see a special teams or defensive touchdown, the under should have a great chance to cash.
PICK: Under 43 (-110, DraftKings)
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