Saints vs. Rams Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Williams, Stafford, and Carr
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Kyren Williams, Matthew Stafford, and Derek Carr? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Thursday, December 21, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup will feature the New Orleans Saints against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video, with both of these teams in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. As of this writing, Matthew Stafford and the Rams are favored by 4 points on the spread.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total in this game, we have three prop leans for this matchup between the Saints and Rams!
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Saints vs. Rams NFL Player Props for TNF
- Kyren Williams UNDER 3.5 Receptions
- Matthew Stafford OVER 242.5 Passing Yards
- Derek Carr OVER 20.5 Pass Completions
Kyren Williams UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-146), FanDuel
Entering play in Week 16, Kyren Williams has 17 receptions in 4 games since returning from injury. Still, he has only managed to eclipse this market number twice during that stretch – once against the Cardinals, who rank 30th in defensive pass DVOA against running backs, and the other time against the Commanders, who rank 22nd in defensive pass DVOA against running backs this season.
On Thursday, Williams has a much tougher matchup on tap, facing a Saints defense that has virtually eliminated opposing running backs from the passing game this season, ranking 2nd in DVOA. Since Week 6, New Orleans has not allowed a single running back to collect more than 3 receptions in a game. The under is juiced for a reason in this spot.
Matthew Stafford OVER 242.5 Passing Yards (-110), FanDuel
The Saints’ secondary unit has performed extremely well each of the last two weeks, but that is unlikely to continue in Week 16, facing a dangerous Rams passing attack. Since losing starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore after Week 10, New Orleans’ pass defense has benefited from facing Desmond Ridder, Jared Goff (in the Superdome), Bryce Young, and Tommy DeVito in four consecutive weeks. Tonight, this unit will have a much tougher assignment against Matthew Stafford, who ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 5th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks since Kyren Williams returned to the field in Week 12. Stafford has eclipsed this market number in each of his last 3 games and has a great chance to make it 4 games in a row in a favorable matchup against a defense that is missing multiple starters.
Derek Carr OVER 20.5 Pass Completions (-138), FanDuel
Derek Carr has his shortcomings, unquestionably, but he is capable of completing an abundance of passes each time he takes the field and finishes a game. Carr has finished 4 games this season in which the Saints lost, and he has eclipsed this market number in each of those contests. On Thursday, he gets to face a mediocre Rams secondary unit, who ranks 16th in EPA/play and 13th in success rate across their last 4 games. Prior to last week, when Sam Howell left the game early against Los Angeles, quarterbacks had completed at least 20 pass attempts against the Rams in 6 consecutive games, and 5 of those quarterbacks had at least 22 completions. Assuming Carr doesn’t leave Thursday Night Football due to injury, he should be able to get the job done here.
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