Divisional Round NFL Player Props: Top Predictions for Saturday, 1/18
What can we expect on Saturday from Travis Kelce, Joe Mixon, and Jared Goff? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Saturday, January 18, 2025. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs begins today, with the Texans taking on the Chiefs at 4:30 PM ET on ESPN, followed by the Commanders against the Lions at 8:00 PM ET on FOX.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for either of these games, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Saturday’s NFL Divisional Round action!
Divisional Round, Saturday – NFL Player Props
- Travis Kelce Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
- Joe Mixon Over/Under 2.5 Receptions
- Jared Goff Over/Under 275.5 Passing Yards
Travis Kelce OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Kelce, now 35 years old, no longer moves as well as he once did. That being said, he’s still continued to be one of the most dominant players in NFL postseason history in recent seasons.
In 22 career playoff games, Kelce has 1,903 receiving yards and 19 receiving touchdowns – both of which rank 2nd all time, behind only the great Jerry Rice. Notably, Kelce hasn’t slowed down at all as he has aged. He enters play with 71+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 playoff games.
The Texans were strong defensively against tight ends during the regular season, ranking 5th in DVOA. Nevertheless, Kelce has faced strong defenses before in the playoffs, and they have had trouble limiting his production. This is a playable number, even with our NFL weather page forecasting temperatures below 30 degrees.
Joe Mixon OVER 2.5 Receptions (-145, bet365)
Mixon had only 1 reception on 2 targets last week against the Chargers, but he could be a candidate for more work as a receiver today in a game that is likely to either be competitive or see the Texans trailing.
Earlier this week, head coach DeMeco Ryans emphasized that the quick passing game is likely to be an important component of Houston’s offensive attack against the Chiefs. Those comments were followed up by offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik saying, “I think Mixon is a really good receiver,” as part of a longer quote about how the team has tried to keep Mixon fresh for his carries this season but acknowledging that it could be time to figure out how to get the ball in his hands more frequently as a pass catcher.
Kansas City’s defense has been tough on opposing running backs this season, but they did allow a combined 7 catches to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in Week 17. There are likely to be opportunities for Mixon here.
Jared Goff UNDER 275.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
Tonight’s game between the Commanders and Lions has a total of 56 points, which implies a lot of offense – which, of course, includes a lot of implied passing yards. That being said, the Lions’ offense is more than capable of putting up points via their ground game, especially with David Montgomery expected to be back on the field.
Washington allowed the highest yards per carry and most yards prior to contact to running backs this season on runs outside the tackles. Jahmyr Gibbs had the 4th-most yards per carry on outside zone runs this season among qualified running backs. Detroit might not need to pass the ball at an abnormal rate tonight for their offense to find success. Goff could have a strong performance and still come in under this number.
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