Week 18 NFL Player Props: Top Predictions for Saturday, 1/4
What can we expect on Saturday from Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, and Russell Wilson? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Saturday, January 4, 2025. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresAndOdds.
The final week of the NFL regular season will begin with a 2-game slate on Saturday, with both games broadcast on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN+. At 4:30 p.m. ET, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Cleveland Browns, needing a win or tie to clinch an AFC North division title. At 8:00 p.m. ET, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will look to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win, facing Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Browns vs. Ravens or Bengals vs. Steelers, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Saturday’s 2-game NFL slate!
Saturday, Week 18 – NFL Player Props
- Derrick Henry Over/Under 94.5 Rushing Yards
- Chase Brown Over/Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
- Russell Wilson Over/Under 3.5 Rush Attempts
Derrick Henry UNDER 94.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Entering play in Week 18, Derrick Henry has already fully maxed out all of his regular season contract incentives, rushing for 1,500 yards and scoring 15+ touchdowns to earn him an additional $4 million. The Ravens still need a win this afternoon to clinch the AFC North division title, but it’s unlikely to require a heroic effort from Henry to accomplish that feat on Saturday with the Browns rolling out Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Henry’s workload reduced in the second half of this contest, especially with young players like Keaton Mitchell healthy and capable of running out the clock if Baltimore has a comfortable lead late in the contest.
This is simply a very tall number against a Cleveland run defense that ranks 10th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate since their bye. A potential blowout game script makes this number even tougher for Henry to reach.
Chase Brown UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Bet365)
Chase Brown is officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Steelers after not practicing at all during the week. It would be surprising to see Brown inactive given the stakes associated with this game for the Bengals, but it’s also highly doubtful that he’s anywhere near 100% healthy heading into this matchup.
Brown didn’t play in overtime against the Broncos in Week 17 due to a right ankle injury, and his lack of practice participation this week is a strong indicator that this is a relatively serious ailment that is bothering him at the moment.
Making matters even more difficult for Brown is that he will have to face one of the league’s better run defenses in terms of raw yardage. This season, Pittsburgh ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed per game and 6th in yards allowed per carry. Since their Week 9 bye, the Steelers’ run defense ranks only 25th in success rate and 25th in EPA/play, but they have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the NFL during that span, which has still kept their raw rushing numbers allowed relatively low. This is a tough spot for Brown in a game where the Bengals are likely to live or die with the ball in Joe Burrow’s hands as much as possible.
Russell Wilson UNDER 3.5 Rush Attempts (+120, DraftKings)
Justin Fields hasn’t been active in recent weeks due to an abdominal injury. However, he finally appears to be trending in the right direction after practicing in a full capacity all week ahead of Pittsburgh’s Week 18 matchup against Cincinnati. Asked earlier this week about Fields, head coach Mike Tomlin said that he expects Fields to be available and implied that he could see some action during the game.
This is particularly noteworthy news given the fact that Russell Wilson has failed to lead Pittsburgh’s offense to more than 17 points in nearly a month. If the Ravens take care of business as 20-point favorites on Saturday afternoon, the Steelers could find themselves in a situation where they want to get a look at Fields as the team’s quarterback if they fall behind early. Even if Wilson plays well, Fields could see some packages that include designed runs, limiting Wilson’s upside as a runner today.
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