Seahawks vs. Giants Player Props: Picks for Jones, Walker III, and Smith
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday Night Football from Daniel Jones, Kenneth Walker and Geno Smith? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, October 2, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Week 4 of the NFL schedule will conclude with a Monday Night Football matchup, featuring Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The Seahawks enter play having won back-to-back games and will look to keep pace in the NFC West division race with a win. The Giants are 1-2 and are at risk of taking sole possession of last place in the NFC East with a loss.
Ahead of kickoff, the Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points on the spread. The game total is set at over/under 47 points. If choosing to wager instead on the player prop market, we have three prop leans for tonight’s matchup!
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Seahawks vs. Giants Player Props for MNF
- Daniel Jones o34.5 Rushing Yards
- Kenneth Walker u67.5 Rushing Yards
- Geno Smith More Than 250.5 Passing Yards
Daniel Jones o34.5 Rushing Yards (-110), Bet365
In Week 3, Daniel Jones rushed for only five yards against a tough San Francisco 49ers defense. His extremely low rushing output was a significant outlier compared to his 102 rushing yards through the first two weeks of the season. Last year, Jones had at least 34 rushing yards in 9-of-14 games to end the regular season – proving that he is consistently competitive at this market number. In 2022, Jones had only 20 rushing yards in his lone meeting against the Seahawks, but Seattle was not equally tough against all mobile quarterbacks. Notably, Kyler Murray ran for 100 yards against them in Week 9. In a competitive game script, Jones should find a few spots to take off and run tonight, making this a worthwhile stab on Monday.
Kenneth Walker u67.5 Rushing Yards (-110), Bet365
Kenneth Walker has only eclipsed this market number once so far this season, and it came in Week 3 against a Carolina Panthers defense that ranks dead-last in Rush EPA/play and 31st in Rush success rate after yesterday’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Giants’ run defense has not been great so far in 2023 either, ranking 25th in Rush EPA/play and 23rd in Rush success rate. However, they do have two strong, healthy run defenders up front in Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence. The return of Azeez Ojulari also figures to help this defense overall tonight. According to NFL NextGen Stats, Walker ranks only 17th among qualified running backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt so far this season, and Seattle is outside of the top-10 in run-blocking grade, per PFF. Other than a blowout game script for the Seahawks, it is difficult to see Walker III collecting 68 rushing yards in this spot, especially when factoring in that both of these teams are 21st or slower in pace this year.
NFL DFS Pick’em
Geno Smith More Than 250.5 Passing Yards, PrizePicks
In Week 1, the New York Giants defense generated the second-lowest pressure rate of any team in the league. In both Week 2 and Week 3, New York was once again worse than the league average in defensive pressure rate. According to PFF, Geno Smith is completing 76.8% of his pass attempts and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt from a clean pocket so far in 2023, compared to a 52.9% completion rate and 5.1 yards per attempt when under pressure. The return of edge defender Azeez Ojulari figures to help New York in this area a little bit, but not enough to cause too many issues for Smith and the Seattle offense tonight.
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