Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Mariners vs. Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | +185 |
| Astros Odds | -215 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 3:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Tuesday afternoon, the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will begin a five game series at Minute Maid Park, with the winner advancing to the American League Championship Series with an opportunity to advance to the World Series. In Game 1, Seattle will hand the ball to Logan Gilbert, who will be tasked with out-dueling the veteran Justin Verlander. Oddsmakers are expecting Houston to prevail in this spot, pricing them as -215 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the American League Division Series.
Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert finished the year with a 3.20 ERA, 4.11 xERA, 3.46 FIP, and a 1.18 WHIP. However, he exhibited concerning splits, which are likely to make him vulnerable in Game 1 against the Astros. In each of his first two big league seasons, Gilbert has been dominant against left-handed batters, but has struggled mightily against right-handed batters. In 144.0 innings against lefties, Gilbert owns a 2.90 FIP, 26.0 strikeout percentage, 7.9 percent walk rate, and a .216 opponent batting average. Against righties, he owns a 4.16 FIP, 21.9 strikeout percentage, 4.5 percent walk rate, and a .263 opponent batting average. Houston’s lineup will likely feature at least six right-handed batters on Tuesday.
Julio Rodriguez was sensational over the final month and change of the regular season, posting an incredulous .436 batting average, 1.265 OPS, and a 266 wRC+ from September 1st until October 5th. Yet, his brilliance and rising stardom overshadowed a lineup that proved to have plenty of depth. In that same span, Cal Raleigh and Ty France each turned-in a .752 OPS or better as part of an offense that ranked 9th in OPS and 3rd in ISO against right-handed pitching across the final 30 days of the year. This depth was evident in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, with six different players recording a hit and seven players finding their way on-base. In Game 2, seven players recorded a hit and five different hitters drove in a run. This Seattle lineup is better than many pundits realize.
By defeating the Toronto Blue Jays in two games instead of three, the Mariners’ relief unit benefited from an extra day of rest prior to Tuesday’s matchup against the Astros. Consequently, every member of this arm barn should be available for Game 1, despite Manager Scott Servais having to use seven different arms to close out the series. During the second half of the campaign, the Mariners’ bullpen ranked 8th in FIP, 3rd in WHIP, 8th in strikeout percentage, and 14th in walk rate – making them competitive in the latter frames on a consistent basis.
Houston Astros
Since being acquired by the Astros at the 2017 trade deadline, Justin Verlander has been the most dominant afternoon pitcher in the entire league.
2017: 2.08 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 44.7 K%, 2.1 BB%, 0.77 WHIP
2018: 3.04 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 34.0 K%, 4.1 BB%, 0.96 WHIP
2019: 2.80 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 35.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 0.83 WHIP
2020: Missed season due to injury
2021: Missed season due to injury
2022: 1.63 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 26.7 K%, 4.7 BB%, 0.89 WHIP
In that span, Verlander is an incredulous 26-5 in day games, having never posted worse than a 3.04 ERA or a 0.96 WHIP in a single season. On Tuesday, the likely 2022 American League Cy Young award winner enters play on a streak of 15 consecutive starts having allowed three earned runs or fewer to end the regular season. From June 24th until October 4th, Verlander had a 1.26 ERA, 1.70 FIP, 29.9 strikeout percentage, 4.0 percent walk rate, and a 0.78 WHIP. In 14.2 innings against the Mariners in that stretch, the veteran right-hander allowed only two earned runs on nine hits. There is nobody in baseball throwing the ball better than Verlander entering the postseason. Expect him to have a dominant performance in this spot.
If there is any concern in this game for Houston, it is at the plate. Across the last month of action, the Astros ranked only 15th in OPS, 8th in ISO, 17th in walk rate, and 23rd in HardHit% against right-handed pitching. From September 1st until the final day of the regular season, Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, Trey Mancini, Martin Maldonado, and Yuli Gurriel each posted worse than a .700 OPS against righties. This group will need a better effort in Game 1 if they hope to grab a series lead.
Arguably the biggest strength of this roster is the relief corps. Following the All-Star break, this unit ranked 2nd in FIP, 6th in WHIP, 1st in strikeout percentage, 13th in walk rate, and 6th in left-on-base percentage. Having been gifted a bye to avoid the Wild Card round, this arm barn is as rested as they have been all season. Rust is a slight concern, given that bettors have never seen this playoff format prior to 2022. Still, it would be surprising to see such a dependable collection of relievers end up being the reason for a loss in this spot.
Mariners-Astros Pick
There are very few strong arguments to be made to bet against Justin Verlander in a day game. There are even fewer arguments to be made when his opponent is fresh off of a long plane ride from Toronto after having played an intense two games against the Toronto Blue Jays. In Game 1, the Houston Astros have a tremendous starting pitching advantage, the better bullpen, and an equally capable offensive attack. Bettors should trust Verlander to give his team a great opportunity to win this game. If the offense can get to Logan Gilbert in the early frames, this game might not be close.
PICKS: Astros -1 (-155)
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