Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Mariners Odds | +134 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Saturday afternoon, the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays will play Game 2 of their American League Wild Card series at the Rogers Centre. In Game 1, the Mariners jumped out to an early lead and never looked back in a 4-0 victory. In Game 2, the Mariners are sending Robbie Ray to the mound, with hopes of advancing to the next round. The Blue Jays will turn to Kevin Gausman as they look to avoid elimination. Oddsmakers are expecting Toronto to get back in the win column in this spot, pricing them as -150 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of American League Wild Card Round.
Seattle Mariners
Robbie Ray’s earned run average regressed by nearly a full run from 2021 to 2022, but much of his underlying metrics remained the same. In 189.0 innings this summer, the veteran southpaw had a 3.59 xERA, 4.17 FIP, and a 1.19 WHIP. His strikeout percentage and walk rate each worsened slightly, but not to the point of being a major alarm. Overall, Ray was a league average pitcher, who thrived in the right matchup, but was vulnerable against better hitters. After the All-Star break, Ray struggled to a 4.00 ERA, 4.59 FIP, and a 1.35 WHIP in 13 starts.
Julio Rodriguez was sensational over the final month and change of the regular season, posting an incredulous .436 batting average, 1.265 OPS, and a 266 wRC+ from September 1st until October 5th. Yet, his brilliance and rising stardom overshadowed a lineup that proved to have plenty of depth. In that same span, Cal Raleigh and Ty France each turned-in a .752 OPS or better as part of an offense that ranked 9th in OPS and 3rd in ISO against right-handed pitching across the final 30 days of the year. This depth was evident in Game 1, with six different players recording a hit and seven players finding their way on-base.
On Friday, bettors were unable to witness much of the excellence of the Seattle bullpen due to the fact that Luis Castillo completed 7.1 innings of shutout baseball. Andres Munoz was the only member of this arm barn to appear yesterday, covering the final 1.2 innings of the contest. Paul Sewald threw 12 pitches on Thursday, but had not pitched for six days prior to that appearance. He will be available if needed on Saturday. Since the All-Star break, the Mariners’ relief corps ranks 8th in FIP, 3rd in WHIP, 8th in strikeout percentage, and 14th in walk percentage as a unit. The ability to limit traffic on the basepaths, and being able to throw the ball past hitters with men-on-base is a nice combination to have at this time of the year when games matter the most.
Toronto Blue Jays
Kevin Gausman was outstanding during the first half of the campaign, with a 2.87 ERA, 1.85 FIP, and a 1.29 WHIP through his first 17 starts. In his final 14 turns through the rotation, he was far more hittable – posting a 3.90 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and a 1.18 WHIP. After the All-Star break, Gausman had five separate outings in which he allowed at least four earned runs. In particular, Gausman struggled against right-handed batters, with a 1.41 WHIP against righties compared to a 1.01 WHIP against lefties. He was also at his worst when pitching at home – struggling to a 1.41 WHIP at the Rogers Centre compared to a 1.09 WHIP on the road.
The Blue Jays’ bats had a delayed flight on their trip north after Spring Training this year, but they finally arrived and lived up to expectations in the final portion of the season – ranking 2nd in OPS and 1st in ISO against left-handed pitching across the final 30 days of the regular season. Since August 1st, Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Whit Merrifield each posted a .903 OPS or better against right-handed pitching, albeit in relatively small sample sizes. Nonetheless, this is a great bounce-back spot for Toronto’s offense after this group was kept off of the scoreboard on Friday.
The biggest concern for Toronto on Saturday is their bullpen. Since the All-Star break, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 17th in FIP, 8th in WHIP, 9th in strikeout percentage, and 8th in walk rate. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, the Blue Jays’ relief corps ranked 25th in left-on-base percentage as a group.
Mariners-Blue Jays Pick
Despite losing Game 1, the Blue Jays are not finished. In Game 2, Toronto has the better starting pitcher, and the better offense. If their bullpen performs well on Saturday, this is a game that they should be able to win to keep their season alive. Still, Toronto does not run the bases well, and they are far less talented than Seattle defensively. There is a healthy amount of risk here, but bettors should have a Game 3 available for this series at sportsbooks on Sunday.
PICKS: Blue Jays ML (-150)
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