Seige's Strategy: Monday, February 6th
Welcome to the “I’m hungover, but the Patriots are the GOAT” edition of my homepage series.
As always, I like to put a little twist on this article and approach the slates in a unique way, and today is no different. When I first look at a slate, one of the things I do is see how the players are grouped. I’m not necessarily just looking at what the prices of the top guys are, but the salary distribution overall, because if there is no mid-tier or no-value, it affects how you evaluate a slate.
So, this week I’m going to break down the slate in this way and give you a glimpse at how it can affect lineup decisions.
The Value ($5,000 and under)
The first thing I look for is super obvious punt plays, and on an 11-game slate there are normally a bunch of these. Now, you don’t have to play every single one of these obvious punt plays, but I’m looking for options that are in play.
The clearest choice is Lavoy Allen ($3,700) with Thaddeus Young out and Myles Turner questionable. Allen could be in for a massive role again tonight. Al Jefferson at $3,100 is in play only if Turner sits out. From there, there is a pretty big downgrade; Kyle O’Quinn at $3,800 is there, but you have to wonder if he’ll even start over Hernangomez.
There are a few other guys in play, such as Fred VanVleet ($3,000) if DeRozan is out, Jamal Crawford ($4,700), and Jahlil Okafor ($4,500). T.J. Warren ($4,000) is my favorite play in the entire tier, but if Solomon Hill covers him for no good reason, that could end in disaster. (Author’s Note: Brandon Rush is another boom/bust option in this group).
The Mid-Tier ($5,100 — $7,100)
It doesn’t take very long to see that this tier is absolutely loaded. Willy Hernangomez ($5,200) will be mega-chalk, the Dallas trio of guards, Yogi Ferrell, Seth Curry, and Wesley Matthews, are in this range, and even Harrison Barnes at $6,300 is a great play.
Steven Adams is still way underpriced and will draw at least one backup Pacers frontcourt player. George Hill under $6,000 is noteworthy along with Otto Porter against LeBron (picking SFs against The King has been fun lately). Other guys I’m quickly going to mention are Ersan Ilyasova, Kristaps Porzingis, Mike Conley, Devin Booker (in case Hill covers Warren), DeAndre Jordan, Jeff Teague and Rudy Gobert. As you can see, this mid-tier is absolutely loaded.
Takeaway
On slates like this, where there is some value but it’s not great, there is merit in going balanced and staying away from the scrubs. There is no “Yogi at $3,000” type of value on this slate; instead it’s a more speculative slate and one filled with low floors.
With all of this value in the $5,100 to $7,100 range, you can build up your team in this price range and still have massive ceilings open to you, or even play mostly guys in the lower tier of this range and fit one stud in. The choice, of course, is yours.
Good luck everyone, and GO PATRIOTS!