Seige's Strategy: Monday, January 30th
Welcome back, everyone. I really appreciate the feedback I’ve gotten over the last few weeks, and since it’s been positive (if you don’t like these columns, feel free to say so in the comments), I’m going to keep on rolling by analyzing tonight’s slate landscape on DraftKings.
I’m sure you’ve heard someone here at RotoGrinders say how it’s all about lineup construction, without really digging into hardcore strategy (mostly because it’s a long conversation that doesn’t work on a GrindersLive show), but I’m going to try and show you a taste of that today.
Point Guard
While there is great value in Yogi Ferrell ($3,500 on DraftKings), who will be super chalky, the G and UTIL spots are great places to consider paying up for considering all the other value that we will talk about at small forward and shooting guard. Kyrie Irving ($8,200) will be the most popular option with Kevin Love has been ruled out already, but I wouldn’t sleep on Goran Dragic ($7,600) even if Tyler Johnson returns, since the matchup against Brooklyn doesn’t get much better.
I’m also a huge fan of potentially stacking the stars in Memphis/Phoenix and hoping you get a game into the high 200s that is close down the stretch. I’d include Eric Bledsoe ($9,000) into that stack. Isaiah Thomas ($9,400) is tough to pay for because KCP will likely be guarding him today, but as an All-Star he is always in play.
Shooting Guard
The trick at shooting guard isn’t whether or not you pay down. It’s figuring out how you pay down. If Avery Bradley plays, he’s super underpriced at $5,600, but given that the Celtics play Toronto in a must-win game on Wednesday, I’m expecting him to be held out one more game, which makes Jaylen Brown ($3,600) a value option we have to consider. There are three guys in that same range that are all great plays. Choosing between Brown, Iman Shumpert ($4,100), and Wesley Matthews ($4,500) is going to be tough, as all are in situations in which extra minutes and usage are available.
You could even pay up a tinge more for Seth Curry ($5,300), who is coming off a massive game, but I might fade the Shumpert D and inflated ownership and pick one of these other value guys. Because there are multiple good options, the ownership should be down on all three. The key is getting the decision right.
Small Forward
Jaylen Brown is also SF eligible on DK, and he’s a great value option, but if Bradley is out, Jae Crowder (even at $6,100) becomes a chalk option for me. His shot attempts are just massive without Bradley (and Al Horford too) on the floor. We should have money to spend, so spending $6,300 on Harrison Barnes is a nice GPP pivot off of the Dallas value, and high usage SFs have had success against Cleveland lately. LeBron, of course, is always in play and will be mega-chalky with the absence of Kevin Love.
Power Forward
Power forward is really weak today, so you’ll see a ton of lineups start with Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800). I can’t hate on that decision, but it forces you into a chalky roster construction the rest of the way. You can use Harrison Barnes here at $6,300 as well. Hassan Whiteside had no answer for Brook Lopez in Brooklyn, and it wasn’t just because of the ankle injury. I’d be shocked if James Johnson ($5,800) doesn’t get an increased role in this game.
If Al Horford sits (and again, I think that’s very likely because of that upcoming game against Toronto), Jonas Jerebko ($3,400) and Amir Johnson ($3,800) become very viable plays. Channing Frye will be popular, but his minutes are so shaky. If you pay up at SF, you probably have to go value at PF today — if you pay for Towns you’ll have to find value at power forward.
Center
Center is absolutely loaded, and unlike some days when they are listed at PF too, they are all C only, which means LOWER ownership than you’d think on all of them. Marc Gasol goes up against Phoenix and the immobile Tyson Chandler, Drummond faces a weaker than normal Boston frontcourt, while the criminally underpriced Brook Lopez is listed at $6,500. Nikola Vucevic matches up against the worst defensive center in the league at $6,400.
Going two centers on DraftKings is a great GPP strategy tonight, but I think the most important takeaway is to not use Towns in a C spot and instead slide him over to PF or F.
Thanks for reading everyone. Let me know what you think in the comments section, and I’ll see you next week!