Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Steelers vs. Bills
Sunday Night Football features two playoff-bound teams when the Steelers head to Buffalo to face the AFC East-leading Bills. Normally, Steelers-Bills games wreak of defense, struggle, and running the football. While the defense might be there, the current iterations of the division-leading teams like to pitch the ball all over the yard. Will we see an abundance of points? Here is a sports betting breakdown plus a few Sunday Night Football picks for the AFC contest.
Sunday Night Football Odds: Steelers vs. Bills
The Steelers opened as road favorites but the spread has moved throughout the week to Bills -2. The game total is up to 48.5 as bettors seem to agree that these teams are going to score points. The under is 4-0-1 in the Steelers’ last five games while the Bills have covered the number in four straight.
Not Your Mama’s Bills
The Bills of old are no more. Young sensation, Josh Allen, has Buffalo embracing the spread passing game with a dual-threat quarterback. Allen averages 8.3 yards per pass attempt in 2020 while throwing 26 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions. Generally factoring into most of the Bills’ points, Allen also boasts 6 rushing touchdowns with 322 rushing yards. The once-questioned pick is poised to lead the Bills into the playoffs again, hoping to build upon previous runs. Allen is going to be an extremely popular captain pick in DFS showdown contests.
Utilizing Allen’s talents, the Bills average 36.2 pass attempts per game — up from 33 last season. The addition of Stefon Diggs makes the transition to a top passing offense easier — Diggs is tied for the NFL lead in receptions (90) and sits in the top five in yardage (1037). Only catching 4 touchdowns, likely due to the usage Josh Allen soaks up in the red zone with his legs and the usage of tight ends — Diggs provides Allen with a reliable chain-moving star previously absent in Buffalo.
The shift to an offensive-minded team has an effect on the defensive side of the ball. The Buffalo defense allows 7.1 yards per pass attempt — way up from the 5.8 mark in 2019. The opponent scoring is up as well with Buffalo allowing 25.5 points per game — up 9 points from last season. The Bills are going to score and are going to get scored upon. This game has all the makings of a potential shootout.
Also read: NFL Week 14 Lines and Betting Picks
Maybe Your Dad’s Steelers?
The Bills of old won’t be present on Sunday night. The Steelers of old, well, maybe… sort of… kind of… The 2020 Steelers’ defense is Steel Curtain-esque, sitting amongst the NFL leaders in opponent points per game (17.6), yards per play (4.9), sack percentage (9.71%), and yards per pass attempt (5.9). The Pittsburgh defense — led by potential DPOY T.J. Watt — is going to put plenty of pressure on Josh Allen and the offense.
The Steelers’ offense represents the seismic shift in Pittsburgh’s football identity. Equipped with an exceptional defense, the Steelers should run the football, possess the ball, run the clock out, right? Not so fast. The Steelers only average 3.7 yards per rush attempt in 2020. James Conner will return to his normal role on Sunday night after being activated from the COVID-19 list. Returning with James Conner will be center Maurkice Pouncey, so, perhaps the Steelers can run more effectively.
More likely, the Steelers will continue to pass the football with Ben Roethlisberger and his wide variety of receiving options. Pittsburgh averages 40.7 pass attempts per game in 2020, 50 per game over the last three. Of course, the Steelers want to throw the football. The current receiving corps might be the most talented Big Ben has every played with — featuring JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, and budding star, Diontae Johnson. The Steelers will look to exploit Buffalo’s inefficiencies against opposing pass offense by throwing and throwing — 40 plus pass attempts for Roethlisberger seems like a near certainty.
Per RotoGrinders’ GridironIQ, the Steelers run 3-WR sets more than 69% of the time (5th in the league). Not to be outdone, the Bills’ employ the same formation over 65% of the time. This game will feature plenty of passing. Can we still attack the over?
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks
The Steelers sitting underneath game totals can be explained right? COVID-19, weird scheduling, and opponents are legitimate reasons to explain the recent low-scoring period for the Steelers. The Bills are going to throw the ball as much as the Steelers and will certainly pick up the pace if they fall behind. The potential game scripts all favor each team being forced to move the football. When behind, both teams sit in the top half of the league in pace of play.
With playoff seeding on the line, I won’t worry about choosing a side against the number. Instead, I will leverage both teams’ penchant for passing and attack the total. Despite missing the better number earlier in the week, I still like this game to go over 48.5. Give me the over.
NFL Betting Picks: Over 48.5 at PointsBet
Steelers-Bills Player Props
Ben Roethlisberger OVER 27.5 Completions (-105 BetMGM) – As mentioned above, the Bills’ defense is not stout against passing games any longer. Given the inefficiency of the Steelers’ running game and a loaded receiving corps, I think the Steelers attempt to move the ball through the air throughout the contest. I’ll take the over at BetMGM.
Cole Beasley OVER 5.5 Receptions (+130 DraftKings) – Beasley saw a bonkers target total in Week 13 against the 49ers — catching 9 of his 11 targets for a massive 130 receiving yards. While I don’t expect this type of output, Beasley will work underneath against a Steeler-team that leads the league in sack percentage. Allen will need to utilize quick throws. Bet this prop at DraftKings for the best price.
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