2020 NFL Week 14 Lines and Betting Picks at Online Sportsbooks

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-12-12 00:59:05

Beginning on Sunday and ending on Tuesday, last week was an unusual one in the NFL. During that span, Baker Mayfield played arguably the best game of his NFL career, Tua returned from a thumb injury, Derek Carr connected with Henry Ruggs on a last-second hail mary to avoid an embarrassing loss to the Jets, and the Giants moved to 5-7 with an upset over Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

The previous iteration of this article saw mixed results. I went 4-6 against the spread/totals but hopefully made up for the losses with a 5-1-1 record on player props. You certainly fared well if you followed Joe Cistaro’s Monday Night Football Guide — the man swept the slate with four winning picks. His Sunday player props also went 3-0. Joe’s weekly prop article is now 25-14 this season (+8.91 units), so be sure to look for his favorite NFL Week 14 player props Saturday morning!

NFL Week 13 Picks Review

• ATS and Over/Under: 4-6
• Props: 5-1-1
• Overall Week 13 Record: 10-7-1

NFL Week 13 Betting Trends

• Away Teams 12-4 ATS
• Underdogs 10-6 ATS
• Over/Under 6-10

2020 NFL betting Trends

• Away teams 101-91 ATS
• Underdogs 110-82 ATS
• Over/Under 94-95

NFL Week 14 Betting Lines

Things will return to normal in Week 14, starting with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. On Sunday, Tua will try to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, the Bucs hope to dodge a three-game losing streak while the Vikings try to snag their third consecutive win, and maybe most notably, the Eagles are slated to start Jalen Hurts against a tough Saints defense.

Before we make picks for each game, take a look at NFL Week 14 lines across online sportsbooks.

Early NFL Week 14 Lines and Betting Picks

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams

The Patriots managed to score 45 points against the Los Angeles Chargers. The craziest stat of the game? Cam Newton threw for only 69 yards. Bill Belichick got an A+ performance from his defense and special teams, but more will be demanded of Newton on the road against LA’s better half. The Rams are 8-4 and have won three of their last four games. Those wins have come against the Seahawks, Bucs, and Cardinals, the latter two via road trips.

Joe Cistaro will have more on this game come Thursday, but for now: Sign up at BetMGM and bet $1 to win $100 if the Patriots or Rams score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football!

Read: Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Patriots vs. Rams

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

What has become a trend for the Titans in 2020, Tennessee added yet another atrocious defensive performance in Week 13. Baker Mayfield managed to throw four touchdown passes in the first 30 minutes of the game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars played another close one despite entering as nearly double-digit underdogs. The Jaguars are sizable underdogs in Week 14, too, as oddsmakers favor the Titans by 7.5 points at most sportsbooks.

Because of these recent performances, where Tennessee has underachieved while the Jags overachieved relative to the spread, we actually get this Week 14 line two points shorter than last week’s lookahead line. The Titans’ offense should have its way with Jacksonville’s defense, and I don’t see Mike Glennon keeping up with Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, and A.J. Brown. Even better, we can bet on the Titans -7 at BetMGM as of Friday afternoon.

What Glennon will do is pass to his tight ends plenty as the Jaguars play catchup. Glennon targeted his tight ends eight times in Week 12 and then 13 times against the Browns, so keep an eye on player props for Tyler Eiffert (currently questionable) and James O’Shaughnessy. If Eiffert is out, O’Shaughnessy, who is priced the stone minimum $2,500 on DraftKings, could provide salary relief on the daily fantasy slate.

NFL Week 14 Pick: [Bet Titans -7 at BetMGM]

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals

Nine losses to the Bengals’ name won’t turn anyone’s head. However, the 3-9 record next to the Cowboys name is a bit of a surprise. Of course the Cowboys have been without Dak Prescott since Week 5, but their problems started long before Prescott’s injury. Just consider the fact that Dallas has allowed 30+ points on seven different occasions, not to mention some mind-boggling decisions on behalf of head coach Mike McCarthy.

The Cowboys aren’t the only team who have had bad luck behind center. Bengals starting quarterback Joe Burrow was carted off the field this season, too. Without Burrow since the start of third quarter in Week 11, the Bengals offense has only reached the end zone twice after losing the rookie. And then on Sunday, Burrow’s replacement, Brandon Allen, was knocked out during an aggressive game in Miami. If Allen can’t go against the Cowboys, it’ll be Ryan Finley who steps up. Finley or Allen, it shouldn’t make much of a difference. What could matter for Cincinnati, though, is the matchup with the Cowboys defense.

Meanwhile, there’s a bit of a revenge narrative in play as Andy Dalton returns to the city and team that drafted him nearly a decade ago. With receivers Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup all at his disposal, Dalton will get his revenge. However, the Cowboys will also allow enough points to send this one over the low point total.

NFL Week 14 Picks: Cowboys -3.5; OVER 42.5

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Once atop the NFC West, the Cardinals have since fallen along with Kyler Murray’s MVP odds. While the Cardinals were descending, the Giants have ascended thanks to a four-game winning streak, their most recent victory coming against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Giants were able to upset Russell Wilson despite playing without quarterback Daniel Jones. New York’s defense stepped up to the plate, holding the Seahawks to only 12 points, two of which were on behalf of Seattle’s safety. Jones’ replacement, veteran Colt McCoy, struggled against a defense that has allowed more than their fair share of points throughout the season. McCoy threw for only 105 yards, tossed an interception, and took a safety against the Seahawks. Another performance like that won’t get the Giants far. Luckily, Jones does seem set to play against the Cardinals, but I’m not sure that will be enough to get them over the hump this time. As of 4 pm ET Friday, we can grab the Cardinals -2.5 at BetMGM. That’s a number that I’m happy to lock in.

NFL Week 14 Pick: [Bet Cardinals -2.5 at BetMGM]

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

This will be a cold one at Soldier Field, but at least the wind shouldn’t be much of an issue. That’s good news for Deshaun Watson, who will try to score against a tough Bears defense without his no. 1 receiver.

Chicago will continue rely on their second-year running back, David Montgomery. Coming off two of his best performances of the season, Montgomery has a good matchup against the 27th-ranked rush DVOA.

Given the limitations of both offenses, and a difficult matchup for Houston in particular, I think the projected point total of 46 is a few points too much. I’ll take the Under.

NFL Week 14 Pick: UNDER 46

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

DJ Moore is on the COVID list and Christian McCaffrey is doubtful to return against the Broncos. That leaves a lot of usage for Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel.

Filling in for McCaffrey early in the season, Davis had some monster games before his production began to taper off in Week 6. In fact, Davis caught 30 passes weeks 2-4. More recently, Davis was used sparingly in weeks 8 and 9. The Panthers return from their Bye, which should aid Davis if he was banged up at all.

At William Hill, Davis’ receptions prop is 3.5. He only caught three passes in his last outing but he was given six targets. I’ll be betting on the Over this time if and when McCaffrey is ruled out.

NFL Week 14 Pick: Davis Over 3.5 Receptions at William Hill (-122)

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you’re looking for a game with playoff implications, you’ve come to the right place. After starting the season 6-2, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have dropped three of their last four games. Of course, it’s not like their schedule has been at all easy over the last month, considering their losses have been at the hands of the Saints, Rams, and Chiefs. Brady & Co. will have a chance to bounce back against a Vikings defense that has allowed 383 yards per game.

Despite their deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings inched their way back into the playoff picture week-by-week after a 1-5 start. Winning five of their last six, Mike Zimmer’s squad sits .500 with a 40% chance to make the playoffs (per FiveThirtyEight). If they upset the Bucs this Sunday, that number jumps to 71%. Needless to say, there’s a lot on the line for both teams.

Pulling off the win won’t be easy against the top-ranked defense in DVOA. The Bucs have shown vulnerabilities against the pass, but I don’t doubt that they can slow down Kirk Cousins. Remember what they did to Aaron Rodgers earlier in the year with a little pass rush? Yeah, I’ll lay the points.

NFL Week 14 Pick: Bucs -6.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

I’ve made a habit out of betting on the Chiefs for much of the last two seasons. It’s worked out pretty great aside from the last four weeks. After starting the season 6-2 ATS, Kansas City bettors are down juice as the Chiefs have won but failed to cover the spread against the Panthers, Raiders, Bucs, and Broncos. That won’t be the case in Week 14.

Tua Tagovailoa can’t keep up with the Chiefs unless Myles Gaskin rushes for 120+ yards. My money will again be on Mahomes minus the points.

NFL Week 14 Pick: Chiefs -7

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Betting against the Packers when they’re laying more than a touchdown this season has consistently been a bad decision. Green Bay is 9-3 ATS for the year and 4-0 when they’re laying at least six points, and they’ve covered back-to-back games as 8-point favorites. I won’t bet against them this week, especially given Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams will be in a dome.

Speaking of Adams, check out this tweet from Derek Carty:

Davante Adams THE BLITZ projection this week is 🍌🍌

The last time a WR projected this well was Michael Thomas vs. ATL, Week 10, 2019. He caught 13 balls for 152 yards.

— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) December 11, 2020

I can’t tell you exactly what the Blitz projects; you’ll have to subscribe to THE BLITZ for that. (Btw, if you bet NFL props AND play NFL DFS, THE BLITZ is definitely worth a subscription.) What I will say, though, is that I’m happy to bet Adams OVER 92.5 Receiving Yards (-122) at PointsBet, and it might even be worth PointsBetting OVER 105. I’ll also bet OVER 7.5 (+110) Receptions at William Hill.

[What is PointsBetting?]

NFL Week 14 Picks: Packers -7.5; Adams Over 92.5 Yards (-122) ; Adams Over 7.5 Receptions (+110)

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers

There’s not much to see here other than two probably slightly underrated teams who have been hindered by bad coaching. One notable storyline, however, is Todd Gurley return to SoFI Stadium, a stadium he “helped create,” Gurley told LA Time’s Emmanuel Morgan early this week.

It’s not quite a revenge game, but Gurley is clearly looking forward to playing in LA. “I helped create that stadium,” said Gurley “so why not try to go out there and try to do damage?”

I don’t know how much damage he’ll be able to do in Atlanta’s crowded backfield, but I do think that, if there’s an opportunity, the Falcons try their best to get Gurley into the endzone. I’ll be betting on him to be the first player to score a touchdown on Sunday.

NFL Week 14 Pick: Gurley +750 First Touchdown at FanDuel

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders

Phillip Rivers’ severe case of turf toe won’t prevent him from clashing with a former division rival. Rivers is no longer with the Chargers, but his disdain for the Raiders didn’t stay in California. The extra motivation couldn’t come at a better time, as the Colts are in a must-win situation this Sunday.

If the Colts are smart, though, they won’t lean on the passing the game; they’ll go straight through the trenches against a Raiders defense that is dead last in DVOA against the run. That means rookie running back Jonathan Taylor should have himself a day. Fresh off an injury a week ago, Taylor rushed for 91 yards on 13 carries (7 ypc). I expect the Colts to hand him a heavier workload against the Raiders, which ought to make Over 52.5 rushing yards more than doable.

NFL Week 14 Pick: Taylor OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

The total fell from 45.5 to 43 after Eagles head coach Doug Pederson announced that the team will be rolling with Jalen Hurts against the Saints. With two dual-threat quarterbacks behind center, the move makes sense. It won’t be an easy first NFL start for Hurts as he faces the no. 2-ranked DVOA.

While it would’ve been great to bet the Under early, I’m a little hesitant take the number now as we likely won’t have any closing line value. However, I can’t help but try to tackle a couple of Jalen Hurts player props: Over/Under 211.5 Passing Yards & Over/Under 40.5 Rushing Yards, via PointsBet.

First, I don’t suggest PointsBetting these. There’s always the threat of Hurts playing so poorly that they turn back to Carson Wentz, which would be catastrophic if you PointsBet the Over. On the other side of things, there’s so much uncertainty that we really don’t know what Hurts’ ceiling is. If he overperforms in his first start, PointsBets on the Under could also be catastrophic.

GridironIQ projects Hurts to throw for 228 yards, which is convincing enough for me to bet OVER 211.5. Though Hurts racked up 29 yards in merely one half of play against the Packers, I think I’ll stay away from the rushing prop. I expect the Saints to focus on stopping Hurts on the ground while daring him to pass.

NFL Week 14 Pick: Hurts Over 211.5 Passing Yards

NFL Week 14 Betting Card

Check back as we update this article with more Week 14 lines, game previews, news and betting picks between now and Sunday.

Image Credit: Imagn