Olympic Men's Basketball: Spain vs. USA Odds, Picks, & Prediction
Spain vs. USA Basketball Odds
| Team Spain Odds | +12 |
| Team USA Odds | -12 |
| Over/Under | 180 |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 3 |
| Time | 12:40 am ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Odds accurate as of Monday at BetMGM | |
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On Tuesday at 12:40 AM ET, Spain and the United States will face off in a Quarterfinals match that oddsmakers do not expect to be close. This is the second consecutive Olympics that these countries will meet in a knockout round in the men’s basketball tournament.
Both clubs won two of their three contests during the preliminary round in Tokyo to make it to this stage of the tournament, but let’s take a deeper look at the strength of opponents in those three games and the rosters to see where bettors can find value here.
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Olympic Prediction and Picks
Spain’s roster features a number of recognizable names, including Pau Gasol, Rudy Fernandez, Ricky Rubio, Marc Gasol, and Willy Hernangomez. Seven of their players are 6’7’’ or taller, which could create some difficulty for a United States roster without much size in the paint. Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, and Jayson Tatum all stand 6’7’’ or taller, but the majority of their game is played on the perimeter. Spain could use their size advantage on the low block to exploit Team USA on the glass and inside of five feet.
In the group phase, the Spainairds took care of Japan 88-77 and defeated Argentina 81-71, before losing 95-87 to the Luka Doncic led Slovenian team. Rubio has been phenomenal for this group, averaging 21.3 points and 7.3 assists. The Gasol brothers are second and third on the team in rebounding, combining for 9.6 per game. Team USA was upset by France on July 25 by a final score of 83-76. However, they bounced back with a convincing 120-66 win against Iran and a 119-84 rout of the Czech Republic to secure their place in the next round of competition. Tatum leads the group with 16.7 points per game, but Durant, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, and Zach LaVine are all averaging double-digits as well.
While the United States unquestionably has far more depth and talent, Spain has a well-balanced team and plenty of international experience, which could make this game closer than some pundits are expecting. Gregg Popovich has been heavily critiqued by some members of the media for trying to run the San Antonio Spurs’ offense in Tokyo, rather than simply allowing the most talented players in the world to dominate in a more free-flowing attack.
One of the major challenges for the United States when they go to the Olympics every four years is that their roster is composed of players who have typically never played on the same team before. In addition, many of the new roster members are unfamiliar with the international rules of the game. These two facts make for much tighter competition than most people would expect by simply looking at the tremendous talent disparity on the competing rosters.
When Spain and the United States met in the Semifinal round in the 2016 Games in Rio de Janeiro, Team USA emerged victorious by a final score of 82-76. Bettors should expect another tightly-contested affair in this matchup. Back the Spaniards in this one to cover 12 points.
Pick: Spain +12
Over/Under 180 Points
In the preliminary round, Spain’s game totals were 165, 152, and 182. Team USA’s games ended with a total of 159, 186, and 203, respectively. The average between Spain’s 166.3 combined points and the United States’ 182.7 combined points comes out to 174.5—below the current market price of 180 at most sportsbooks. Oddsmakers are likely assuming that the United States will be better able to control the pace of play in this game, and that they will try to push the tempo against Spain, who has four key players that are 35 years old or older.
Thus far, there has been quite a bit of volatility in scoring totals for these two teams during the tournament. Considering that there is an infinitesimal sample size from which to draw analysis for this event, any play on the total here is much closer to true gambling than it is informed risk taking. Bettors have to imagine that defense should be on center stage in such an important game, which would favor a slower pace—likely a pace under 180 points. If choosing to wager here, make it a small play on the under.
Pick: Under 180 points
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Image Credit: Imagn