Sports Betting Expert Survey: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

Welcome to the Sports Betting NFL Expert Survey for the Big Game. The Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, February 2, 2020, in Miami, Florida, with the Chiefs listed as short favorites on the point spread.

Every year, this showdown provides a wide variety of betting options, and sometimes it can be a little overwhelming to sift through and find the best bets. To help you pin down the best bets, our team of experts is here to answer a handful of questions and give out their top NFL picks. NOTE: Odds found below were taken from Monkey Knife Fight, FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook – odds are subject to change before kickoff.

ATS Pick: KC -1.5 or SF +1.5?

Notorious: KC -1.5
BigT44: SF +1.5
JJ Apricena: SF +1.5
schmitto: KC -1.5

O/U Pick: OVER or UNDER 54 total points?

Notorious: UNDER 54
BigT44: OVER 54
JJ Apricena: UNDER 54
schmitto: UNDER 54

What is your favorite Chiefs team prop?

Notorious: Chiefs to score in every quarter (+165)
BigT44: Chiefs OVER 3.5 TDs +140
JJ Apricena: Chiefs Longest Made Field Goal
schmitto: OVER 7.5 Chiefs players to record a reception (+135)

What is your favorite 49ers team prop?

Notorious: 49ers with the Longest Drive in Time (-130)
BigT44: SF OVER 1.5 TDs in 1st Half +105
JJ Apricena: OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made
schmitto: 49ers to record first sack (-124)

What is your favorite Patrick Mahomes player prop?

Notorious: OVER 299.5 Passing Yards
BigT44: All Passing Props OVER
JJ Apricena: UNDER 30.5 Rushing Yd
schmitto: OVER 299.5 Passing Yards

What is your favorite Jimmy Garoppolo player prop?

Notorious: OVER 240.5 Passing Yards
BigT44: All Passing Props OVER
JJ Apricena: OVER 3.5 Rushing Yd
schmitto: UNDER 120.5 Passing Yards in 1st Half

What is your favorite RB player prop for Kansas City?

Notorious: Damien Williams OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards
BigT44: Damien Williams UNDER 50.5 (+105) rushing yards
JJ Apricena: Damien Williams OVER 31.5 Rec Yd
schmitto: Damien Williams OVER 3.5 (-102) Receptions

What is your favorite RB player prop for San Francisco?

Notorious: Raheem Mostert OVER 3.5 Yards for First Carry
BigT44: Raheem Mostert All Props UNDER
JJ Apricena: Raheem Mostert Under 77.5 Rushing Yards
schmitto: Raheem Mostert Under 15.5 (+101) Rush Attempts

What is your favorite WR/TE player prop for Kansas City?

Notorious: Sammy Watkins UNDER 3.5 Receptions
BigT44: Travis Kelce OVER on all props
JJ Apricena: Sammy Watkins UNDER 50.5 Rec Yd
schmitto: Tyreek Hill (-150) 1st WR to Reach 50+ Receiving Yards vs. Deebo Samuel

What is your favorite WR/TE player prop for San Francisco?

Notorious: George Kittle first TD + Kittle anytime TD
BigT44: Deebo Samuel OVER 53.5 Receiving yards
JJ Apricena: George Kittle OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards
schmitto: George Kittle OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards

What is your favorite longshot bet (odds +500 or more)?

Notorious: George Kittle to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+650)
BigT44: Kyle Juszczyk Anytime TD +850
JJ Apricena: Raheem Mostert First TD +650
schmitto: Mecole Hardman First Touchdown +1900

What is your favorite MKF game and picks for the Super Bowl?

Notorious: More or Less: Tyreek Hill UNDER 18.5 Fantasy Points + George Kittle OVER 15.5 Fantasy Points
BigT44: More or Less: George Kittle OVER 15.5 Fantasy Points
JJ Apricena: More or Less: George Kittle OVER 15.5 Fantasy Points
schmitto: More or Less: Patrick Mahomes OVER 303.5 Yards; Jimmy Garoppolo Over 237.5 Yards (3.5x your buy-in)

What is your favorite Touchdown Dance goal on MKF and with which three players?

Notorious: O 3.5 (5x) – Kittle, Kelce, Williams
BigT44: O 4.5 (15x) – Kittle, Kelce, Deebo
JJ Apricena: O 3.5 (5x) – Kittle, Mostert, Williams
schmitto: O 2.5 (2x) – Kelce, Hill, Mostert

What is your favorite Reception Collection goal on MKF and with which three players?

Notorious: O 20.5 (2x) – Kittle, Kelce, Williams
BigT44: O 22.5 (3x) – Kittle, Kelce, Deebo
JJ Apricena: O 22.5 (3x) – Kittle, Kelce, Sanders
schmitto: O 19.5 (2x) – Kelce, Hill, Kittle

Predict the final score of the game.

Notorious: KC 30 – SF 20
BigT44: SF 55 – KC 38
JJ Apricena: SF 28 – KC 24
schmitto: KC 31 – SF 21

Why are you picking X team against the spread (or moneyline)?

Notorious: In these big games, I like to bet on the quarterback. Yes, the Niners have the better defense, but they don’t have Patrick Mahomes. I haven’t seen enough from Jimmy Garoppolo in big games. If the Niners fall behind early (which is very possible given how good the Chiefs’ offense is and how good Andy Reid is with extra time to prepare for a game), they will have to lean on Jimmy G. I like the Chiefs chances in that game script because the best way to beat Kansas City is on the ground. The best way to stop Derrick Henry is to build a lead and that’s exactly what the Chiefs were able to do in the AFC Championship. I think (hope) they can do it again with the Niners rushing attack.

BigT44: I am picking the 49ers because I think they dominate the line of scrimmage and really force KC to sling it around the yard. A lot of people will like SF and Under or KC and Over, but I think we get the SF and Over. I think KC will eventually get into a flow and start scoring. I really think KC will try to shut down the ground game and SF will chuck it around early and often as well. Love SF the most but definitely like the Over as well.

JJ Apricena: I am on the 49ers, as this is a mismatch in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Mahomes will be able to make up for this on some drives and certainly some plays, but over four quarters, SF is simply the better squad. If SF can establish the ground game, this will open up the play action for plenty of downfield strikes from Jimmy G. Mahomes is the best player on the field, but he’s not on the best team. I’ll roll the 49ers with the more efficient offense and much better defense.

schmitto: The Kansas City Chiefs will need to start better than they have in their first two playoff games, but I like them to do just that. As good as this 49ers defense is, they do have a vulnerability: they love to play zone defense, which isn’t ideal against Mahomes. In his two seasons starting, Mahomes has a QBR of 91.3 on 74 percent passing and 9.4 yards per attempt against zone defenses. A quick start and an early stop or two by a Chiefs defense that has gotten much better throughout the season will force the 49ers to put the ball in the air via Garoppolo. The 49ers do have some passing weapons at their disposal, but I don’t think they can keep up with the three-headed monster that is Mahomes, Hill and Kelce, especially if they fall behind early.

What is your favorite bet for this Super Bowl and why?

Notorious: Any and all George Kittle props. If the game goes as I hope, the Niners will be forced to air it out. The Chiefs are very tough on wide receivers, but have struggled to defend tight ends. We know Jimmy G doesn’t mind locking onto Kittle in these big games.

BigT44: 49ers moneyline, for the reasons mentioned above: the 49ers will dominate in the trenches and Garoppolo and Kittle will connect one too many times.

JJ Apricena: UNDER 54 – These defenses are really clicking right now and are both fully healthy. Many look at these teams and see good offenses, but numbers prove both have been playing extremely well defensively. Both also have tremendous defensive lines. KC has been limiting points for the last 7-8 weeks and SF is one of the best 3rd down defenses in the league. There could be yards piled up, but getting it in the end zone will be more difficult than anticipated.

schmitto: Mahomes OVER 299.5 Passing Yards —The 49ers may abandon their commitment to the zone defense if Mahomes is picking it apart. Mahomes hasn’t been nearly as good against man defense, but the 49ers in particular will struggle to match up with the Chiefs speed at wide receiver, which is why this passing prop is my favorite bet for the big game.

Who is the best value to win Super Bowl MVP?

Notorious: The best value is definitely George Kittle at 16-1, but it would take a massive game from him to get the award over Jimmy Garoppolo and this is all assuming the Niners win the game (which is not what I am putting my money on). With so many props to bet on, I will stay away from this one.

BigT44: George Kittle at 16-1 and Deebo Samuel at 33-1 are definitely my favorite bets, but QBs always seems to win this award, so Jimmy G in the +225 range is a nice little hedge off the other two guys. I will more than likely bet all three of them for the same amounts and take my chances of one winning the award. If I had to pick just one though, it would be Kittle at 16-1

JJ Apricena: Kittle at 16-1 provides plenty of value since he’s coming off a few bad games. He led this team all year and if KC sells out to stop the run, this could become the Kittle show versus a vulnerable secondary.

schmitto: Mahomes and Garoppolo are the favorites here, and for good reason. Quarterbacks have won the award seven times over the last 10 Super Bowls and 29 times overall. Running backs have won the award six times, wide receivers seven times, and the other 12 times have gone to defenders. While I expect Mahomes to walk away with the award Sunday night, I think there’s value on backing some longshots. My eyes on Williams +2500 and Tyreek Hill +2000. We know how high Hill’s ceiling is, but the receiver’s performance is too closely correlated with Mahomes. Williams, on the other hand, can win the award if he has a 100-plus yard game and vultures multiple touchdowns from the Chiefs passing game in a Chiefs Super Bowl victory.

What’s your favorite long shot (5x or more) Monkey Knife Fight game and picks?

Notorious: Rapid Fire Fantasy Points Scored 4/4 (8x) –

Mahomes -8.5 vs. Garoppolo
Kelce +2.5 vs. Hill
Kittle +0.5 vs. Williams
Mosters -3.5 vs. Samuel

BigT44: I will give out the gem of all gems here because of how golden it looks and the fact we get 20x odds. More or Less 5 for 5 :

Mahomes OVER 25.5 Fantasy Points
Jimmy OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points
Tyreek OVER 18.5 Fantasy Points
Kelce OVER 16.5 Fantasy Points
Kittle OVER 15.5 Fantasy Points

JJ Apricena: Fantasy Challenge 5x – OVER 68.5 Fantasy Points –

Damien Williams
Raheem Mostert
George Kittle

schmitto: More or Less 5 for 5 (20x)

Patrick Mahomes MORE 303.5 Passing Yards
Jimmy Garoppolo MORE than 237.5 Passing Yards
Travis Kelce MORE than 6.5 Receptions
Raheem Mostert LESS than 86.5 Rushing Yards
Tyreek Hill MORE than 79.5 Receiving Yards

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