Sports Card Investing Targets - NFL Week 1 Review and Value

We’ve had our first full week of NFL and now we have also had several days to digest the market reaction to player performances and news. Overall it seems like there hasn’t been a lot of immediate overreaction to anything but there are still some value opportunities we can exploit based on upcoming schedules and opportunity.

We’ll use SportsCardInvestor’s Market Movers data to search for value. You can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription. You will want to sign up for Market Movers specifically in order to access the great tools and data, and if you sign up for the annual Market Movers subscription, you will save you 20% on the entire year instead of just the first month. I’ll be adding additional targets at the end of the article from previous articles so you can see if you can still find the cards within the target range.

Sports Card Investing Targets – NFL Week 1 Review and Value

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Kyler Murray – Kyler Murray had a great week 1 performance vs San Francisco’s great defense. After playing the 49ers close twice last season, Murray led the Cardinals to a week 1 victory via a big-time rushing performance and shiny, new stud Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins who obliterated nay-saying fantasy analysts by clicking immediately with Murray and catching 14 receptions for 151 yards. The schedule only gets easier from here, and Murray has a chance to pull off an MVP season in his 2nd year as Lamar Jackson did last season. The card I’m looking at specifically from a value standpoint is his 2019 Prizm Base PSA 9 card which hasn’t experienced the same upward price action as it’s PSA 10 counterpart holding only 24% of the PSA 10 value. If we go back to the end of July the PSA 9 held 30% of that PSA 10 value before they started to diverge. If the PSA 9 starts to catch back up that gives us about 25% upside in addition to the overall upside we could see in Kyler Murray throughout the season. If you’re looking for a “safe” Kyler Murray card to invest in, the PSA 9 Prizm Base card looks like a good buy.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2019 Kyler Murray Prizm Base PSA 9 9 Target Under $225
2019 Kyler Murray Prizm Base PSA 10 10 Target Under $925

Baker Mayfield – I’ve recommended Baker a bunch and his cards have not moved in a while. He had a brutal week 1 matchup vs Baltimore but things get easy for the next few weeks apart from a game against Pittsburgh in week 6. Beyond that, if we use Warren Sharp’s Pass Success Rate rankings from last season we see that the Browns’ opponents over the next several weeks ranked 19th (Cincinnati who they face twice), 27th (Washington), 22nd (Indy), 30th (Las Vegas), and 16th (Houston who’s D is worse this year). This gives Mayfield a good stretch of games to find his mojo and start to turn things around. He can also finally get an opportunity to develop some chemistry with Odell Beckham Jr who he targeting 10 times vs the Ravens. Mayfield’s 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 is the card I would be targeting and at a target price of $375, you can get a small 5-10% discount on it currently after a lousy week 1 performance. For an even better deal target the PSA 9 which has dropped under $70!

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
Baker Mayfield Prizm Base PSA 10 10 Target Under $375
2018 Baker Mayfield Prizm Base PSA 9 9 Target Under $70

DeAndre Hopkins We’re going to keep targeting Hopkins until his prices start moving up. As we mentioned in Kyler Murray paragraph, Hopkins had a huge debut with the Cardinals on Sunday and showed instant chemistry with Murray as we predicted he would several weeks ago. People seem to have forgotten that Hopkins has performed well with new QBs in the past including several awful ones he had to play with before Deshaun Watson arrived in Houston. Just to illustrate the absurdity of some hobby traditions, let’s check out a chart comparing Hopkins’ rookie cards to Drew Lock. Lock has accomplished nothing vs Hopkins who is an established receiver who has put up Hall-of-Fame numbers throughout his career. Hopkins rookies are super scarce too vs Lock. His 2013 Prizm PSA 10 has a population of 36, yet is only valued slightly above Drew Lock 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 with a population of 911 ($510 vs $400). Hopkins’ 2013 Topps Chrome PSA 10 has a population of 68 and is only valued at $250. This is why I keep advocating for buying skill position players. If these price comparisons seem nuts to you too, then Hopkins’ rookie cards might make good targets at those current prices.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2013 DeAndre Hopkins Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 Chrome Target Under $250
2013 DeAndre Hopkins Prizm Football Base PSA 10 Prizm Target Under $450

Davante Adams Adams’ was hurt for much of the 2019 season which may have hurt his overall card prices, but he started the 2020 season strong. People had given up on Aaron Rodgers this summer, but Rodgers started off the season with a vengeance putting up 43 pts vs the Vikings. Adams was the biggest beneficiary putting up a monster 14 receptions/156 receiving yards/2 TD game on 17 targets. If that’s any indication of what’s in store for 2020, Adams should put up a huge year and could rival Michael Thomas 2019 season. Yet his cards aren’t reflecting that potential and could be worth targeting. The pop counts on his PSA 10s are very low with only 8 in existence for his 2014 Prizm cards. If you are fortunate enough to find one at the most recent sale under $150, I would recommend scooping it up.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2014 Davante Adams Prizm Base PSA 10 Prizm Target Under $150

Miles Sanders Sanders finished up strong in 2019 and had a lot of hype in the off season as the Eagles did not sign any additional veteran running backs after Jordan Howard parted ways. Add in some promising coach speak indicating Sanders would mostly have the Philly backfield to himself and we have the perfect formula for a big breakout year for Sanders. Unfortunately Sanders got hurt a few weeks before the start of the season and that injury carried over to week 1 and Sanders had to sit the game out. His cards took a dip as a result and present us with a nice buying opportunity particularly in his 2019 Prizm Silver raw cards which have dropped from $86 to $51 (a 40% drop). I would be targeting Sanders auto cards too if you can find any steep declines using the Market Movers charts for reference.

Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com

Sports Card Description Target Price
2019 Miles Sanders Prizm Raw base raw Target Under $700
2019 Miles Sanders Prizm Silver Raw silver raw Target Under $700

As always you can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription.

As our weekly bonus in our articles, here is a list of cards from recent articles that you can check out to see if you can still buy at the target prices. Just click right on the links next to the cards to get to the eBay searches. Here are the additional targets we’ve recently featured in our articles:

Sports Card Description Target Price
2018 Baker Mayfield Prizm Base PSA 10 Target Under $400
2018 Baker Mayfield Optic Base PSA 10 Target Under $150
2018 Baker Mayfield Optic Holo PSA 10 Target Under $600
2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo PSA 10 Target Under $700
2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm PSA 10 Target Under $800
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 10 Target Under $700
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm PSA 10 Target Under $900
2014 Mike Evans Topps Chrome Refractor PSA 10 Evans Target Under $150
2017 Kenny Golladay Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $100
2015 Amari Cooper Topps Chrome Refractor PSA 10 Target Under $60
2018 Michael Gallup Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $40
2018 DJ Chark Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $60
2019 Terry McLauren Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $60
2018 Calvin Ridley Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $60
2016 Tyler Boyd Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $40
2011 Julio Jones Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 Target Under $300
2013 DeAndre Hopkins Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 Target Under $160
2017 Kenny Golladay Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $100
2017 Kenny Golladay Prizm Silver PSA 9 Target Under $20
2014 Odell Beckham Jr Contenders Auto #277 PSA 10 Target Under $170
2014 Odell Beckham Jr Contenders Auto #277 Raw! Target Under $70
2018 DJ Chark Contenders Optic Purple Auto Raw Target Under $30
2018 Darrius Slayton National Treasures RPA Raw Target Under $20
2019 Diontae Johnson Contenders Optic Raw Target Under $20
2013 Giannis Antetokounmpo Prizm PSA 10
2003 LeBron James Topps Chrome PSA 10
2018 Luka Doncic Prizm PSA 10
2017 Lonzo Ball Donruss Optic Basketball Base PSA 10 Target Under $75
2017 Lonzo Ball Donruss Optic Basketball Base PSA 9 Target Under $30
2017 Lonzo Ball Donruss Optic Basketball Base Raw Target Under $5
2019 RJ Barrett Donruss Optic Basketball HOLO PSA 10 Target Under $300
2019 RJ Barrett Donruss Optic Basketball HOLO PSA 9 Target Under $125
2019 RJ Barrett Donruss Optic Basketball HOLO Raw Target Under $50
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $380
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver PSA 9 Target Under $115
2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver BGS 9.5 Target Under $200
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 10 Target Under $290
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 9 Target Under $110
2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo BGS 9.5 Target Under $125
2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver PSA 10 Target Under $450

About the Author

  • Simon Edwards (Pumacom)

  • Simon is a long-time sports card collector who spent the majority of his cash as a kid investing in cards to sell at card shows. In 2009-2010 he owned an affiliate collectables website along with sports-card legend, Don West, where they did box breaks and sold cards. Simon recently got back into sports card investing after the market reset itself and investability returned to the market.

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