Starting 5 - Ceiling and Consistency: Friday, March 20th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Ceiling and Consistency tool. One of the most important things in DFS is avoiding duds. If you can fill your roster with players that produce on a nightly basis, while offering solid upside, you’ll be in good shape most nights. Anyone can have a bad game and end your night, but the goal here is to reduce the likelihood of that happening as much as possible. I’ll be using DraftKings pricing for today’s article, focusing on players that I think have a very good chance of yielding at least 5 points per $1000.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat, $6600
Dragic has hovered around this price for a while despite putting up some very impressive fantasy totals lately. He’s clearly acclimated to himself to Miami’s offense, and he’s thriving playing alongside Dwyane Wade, who is currently playing his best basketball in years. At this point, Dragic near is a near lock for 30 fantasy points, which puts him very close to that 5 points per $1000 that we’re targeting. Not only does he have the high floor, but reaching 40 or more points against Denver not only seems likely, but it’s something I’m expecting. I used a one-week view for Dragic, which only includes three games. I realize that’s a small sample, but the issue here is that the games before that aren’t relevant. I certainly don’t care about anything he did in Phoenix where he mostly played off the ball, and early struggles with Miami were to be expected as he acclimated himself to a new offense and new teammates.
When you’re approaching big slates, it’s important to remember that there is a greater likelihood of finding players that are mispriced. Dragic’s price has yet to reflect his new role on a new team, and he should be targeted heavily until the pricing algorithms catch up.
Shooting Guard: Randy Foye, Denver Nuggets, $4300
We’re looking at a small sample size again, but Foye has only recently been seeing big minutes for the Nuggets. In his last three games, he’s played no fewer than 33 minutes, and scored no fewer than 30 fantasy points. That’s must play territory for me. The chart tells you all you need to know. He’s exceeded value in each of his past three games, and if you scroll through his game log, you’ll see that he’s been very productive when given minutes. Denver had everyone available against Houston, and Foye still played 35 and drew the start. I expect that to continue going forward, making him one of the top value plays of the evening.
Small Forward: Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors, $4400
We move on to small forward and find another solid value in Andre Iguodala, who got the bump we expected from Klay Thompson absence last game. Thompson will be out again, and while Iguodala doesn’t start, he’ll see close to 30 minutes off the bench, and given his ability to do a little bit of everything, he should be able to pay off his very modest price tag. Consistency and high upside are rare at small forward, and if you can find a solid value play you should take it. As you can see from the chart, only Iguodala and Mbah a Moute have managed to hit 5× 60% of the time in the past three weeks, which is further proof of the difficulty of finding reliable options at small forward. Go the cheap route and spend at better positions.
Power Forward: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers, $7300
Looking at the past three weeks, it seems that Noel is a near lock to give at least 4x each night, while also offering a good chance at 5x or above. Now, consider that he’s facing the Knicks, a team that trots out the most atrocious frontcourt imaginable each and every night.
I expect Noel to get a sizable bump in value in this matchup, and I think he should easily finish with at least 35-40 fantasy points tonight. Noel is the type of player that can get you a combined 10 blocks and steals in a game, and that’s a big reason why. Even if the scoring numbers aren’t there, he can give you an easy 20+ fantasy points in defensive statistics.
Center: Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder, $4500
Adams represents possibly the best value of the day. If we look at the last three weeks, we only have a six-game sample since Adams was out with an injury. Of those six games, he reached 5x value four times, and 6x twice. While that may not sound impressive, keep in mind that two of those games (the low-scoring ones) occurred before Serge Ibaka was hurt. Adams is now playing well over 30 minutes, and he may be asked to do even more tonight if Enes Kanter isn’t able to suit up. At $4500 with upside well over 30 fantasy points, Adams is one of the easier plays of the day.