Starting Pitcher Breakdown: May 29th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-29 17:46:30

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 29th, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Anibal Sanchez, DET (at PIT) – We are looking at a strikeout-fest in PNC Park on Wednesday night as two of the four 30% or better strikeout rate arms clash in Sanchez and Burnett. Sanchez has the MLB high for strikeouts in a game this year with 17 and then he dropped another 12 in his most recent outing, a shutout of the Minnesota Twins. Dating back to August 22nd of last year – when his Detroit tenure turned a corner – Sanchez is the AL’s second-best pitcher by ERA with a 2.28 trailing only Hisashi Iwakuma.

He’s on another level this year with just tremendous command of his entire four-pitch arsenal. The changeup and slider have been his best pitches as 46 of his 80 strikeouts have been generated by the pair. The Pirates are terrible against righty changeups so expect to see that pitch on display Wednesday night. They have a 538 OPS against them and that dips to 395 in PNC Park. The only downside with Sanchez is the fact that his teammates are facing Burnett and while the Rick Porcello-Jeanmar Gomez stalemate was unexpected, a repeat of it between these two with both taking a no-decision wouldn’t shock anyone. This is an easy call as the best option for the day, but he’s also the most expensive arm on the board.

Lance Lynn, STL (v. KC) – If you want to zig where many are zagging, Lynn might your counter to Sanchez. The fear with Sanchez is that he puts up such a big score that you almost have to have it to compete in the big tourneys, but you can’t live in fear of that or else you’ll always just take the obvious pick and neuter your chances to separate from the pack. Let me be clear that Lynn is only kind of a zig to everyone’s zag as he still costs quite a bit, but I think that those looking to invest top dollar in their starter are apt to go with Sanchez more often than Lynn. The Royals are punchless against righties with a 676 OPS (26th ranked) that is weighed down by a .368 SLG. They are just one of two teams with fewer than 20 homers against right-handers (Marlins obv!) and in fact their 17 homers put them nine behind the third-worst Dodgers.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at BAL) – How do you make people overlook the fact that you have a paltry 16% strikeout rate? Pair it with 51% groundball and 3% walk rates. Zimm has added an incredible 83% LOB rate and .235 BABIP for good measure aiding him to a 1.71 ERA and 0.87 WHIP for the season. His OPS with runners on has improved every year of his career with this year’s down to just 479. Only Clay Buchholz (431) and Patrick Corbin (459) are better. He has baseball’s most effective fastball, yielding just 480 OPS where league average is 798. The Orioles have a strong lineup, but it doesn’t deter me from JZ one bit. The elite arms are worth a look regardless of opponent.

A.J. Burnett, PIT (v. DET) – As I mentioned earlier, Burnett has a 30% strikeout rate on the season as he’s generating a career-best 11.2% swinging strike rate. Well, he has a 13.1% in his 2002 debut, but that was only 41.3 innings. Either way, it’s remarkably impressive that a 36-year old is posting no worse than his second-best swinging strike rate. The most impressive part of Burnett’s success is evolution into basically a two-pitch pitcher since joining the Pirates last year. He has thrown his change a mere six percent of the time.

The Tigers do excel against right-handed curveballs with a 669 OPS (league average is 590), but they are facing the game’s third-best bender. Burnett’s 408 OPS allowed is bested by only Matt Moore (347) and Gio Gonzalez (377) while his 46 strikeouts with the pitch are an MLB-high. I still have to lean toward Sanchez in this matchup because he’s facing the much easier lineup whereas Burnett could throw a baseline quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) with a bunch of Ks yet his team’s lineup is facing a virtually insurmountable lead.

John Lackey, BOS (at PHI) – A clearly hurting Lackey hit rock bottom in 2011 posting a 6.41 ERA in 160 innings and eventually missing all of 2012. Now healthy, he’s come back to the Lackey we got used to in Los Angeles and then some with career bests in his strikeout (24%) and groundball (54%) rates. I mentioned yesterday how poor the Phillies are against righties in Dempster’s profile (even though I accidentally put “lefties” instead; hopefully folks knew I meant “righties” based on Dempster being one). They have a 665 OPS which ranks second-worst in baseball and has actually been baseball’s overall worst in May at 621. I love Lackey given his price compared to the other studs going on Wednesday.

BEST THE REST:

David Phelps, NYY (v. NYM) – The swingman joined the rotation in early May and faltered some against Houston allowing eight hits leading to four runs in 5.7 innings, but he’s rebounded brilliantly since with a 2.63 ERA in his subsequent four starts including trips to Coors Field and the Jake (that’s Cleveland’s stadium for you youngsters!). This is another under-the-radar play that I love for Wednesday. The Mets are an anemic offense as one of four teams with a sub-.300 OBP aiding them to the league’s third-worst OPS at 671. They strike out 24% of the time against righties, too.

Justin Masterson, CLE (v. CIN) – I’m sure several DFSers have been burned by Masterson when they loaded their lineup with several lefties against him and he actually shut them down. He’s been significantly improved against southpaws this year performing at a career-best clip with a 647 OPS-against. The gains are starting to look more legitimate with each passing start, too. My colleagues and podcast co-hosts Doug Thorburn and Jason Collette have both written about him at Baseball Prospectus recently as well if you want further insight on how real his newfound success against lefties has been thus far.

The Reds will present a tremendous challenge for these new skills as they present some of the best lefties in the biz atop their lineup with Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce filling the 1-3-5 spots. Reds lefties have a league-best 871 OPS against right-handers including a 941 OPS against sliders – Masterson’s best pitch. The Red Sox are second to the Reds in OPS for their lefty batters against right-handers and they’ve been Masterson’s biggest nemesis this year, tagging him for nine runs in 11 innings with the left-handers (or switch-hitters) posting a .345/.406/.621 line in the process. I’m starting to buy Masterson more and more as the season progresses, but I don’t like the risk here.

Jered Weaver, LAA (v. LAD) – The only reason I didn’t drop him to “Caution” for his first start back since April 7th is because the injury wasn’t related to his pitching arm. There may be some rust, but his broken elbow was for his non-throwing arm so I think we could see him look strong right out of the gate. The Dodgers are the fourth-worst team against righties by OPS, but they’ve improved greatly in May jumping to 14th even though Matt Kemp continues to flounder. Only a couple outlets have decreased his price to account for the missed time, but otherwise he is still a top dollar asset and as such I’d rather look elsewhere.

USE CAUTION:

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. BOS) – Kendrick has tumbled back to earth a bit in his last two outings losing his command of the strike zone and subsequently missing fewer bats. He opened the season with a 2.47 ERA in his first eight starts with 39 strikeouts and 10 walks, but has since given up a 7.36 ERA with just three strikeouts and eight walks in back-to-back outings against the Reds and Nationals. The command of his sinker has been the issue. It’s his predominant pitch and after allowing a 600 OPS with a 15.5% K rate with it through his first eight starts, it was battered around to the tune of a 1220 OPS with just one strikeout (3.2% rate) in those last two. The Red Sox have baseball’s best OPS (819) and OBP (355) against righties with six guys netting an 850 or better OPS and team leader Dustin Pedroia posting a formidable 802 of his own.

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. TOR) – Medlen hasn’t been close to the unreal superstar he was for a 12-start run last summer, but honestly no one should’ve expected him to be because that’s simply not his talent level. He is a quality mid-rotation arm and he’s pitched as such so far this season. His command has left him at times causing the base runners to pile up and eventually start scoring. In fact, he an 11% walk rate in five starts before his most recent one where he walked just one Met in six innings.
The strikeouts have been sporadic, too. Again, it’s been everything you’d expect from a mid-rotation arm, but the name value built up in last year’s work puts an unfair burden of expectation on him. That burden is also reflected in his prices at several outlets pricing him out of being a wise pick in most cases, too. And despite a modest 22-29 record, the Jays are hitting right-handers and quite a bit in May specifically with an 825 OPS that ranks third in MLB.

Brandon McCarthy, ARI (at TEX) – I love that McCarthy has made some mechanical adjustments to turn his season around. He’s allowed just one run in his last three outings combined and he has a 1.98 ERA in May, but I’m still not sure I trust him Texas. Even if he hadn’t labored through April with the 7.48 ERA, I would still be exercising caution in this venue.

Tyler Chatwood, COL (v. HOU) – Chatwood has been brilliant in his four starts this season, but the skills haven’t been as eye-popping leading me to believe the bottom will fall out on this 1.90 ERA sooner than later. His 1.39 WHIP is the first tip off. He’s been dodging trouble with a 82% LOB rate and avoiding the huge inning by not yet allowing a home run. I love the 58% groundball rate and he might post a fifth straight strong outing thanks in large part to his opponent, but I’d tread very cautiously here.

Chris Capuano, LAD (v. LAA) – Cap has been excellent or terrible this year with a pair of one-run outings and three five-run outings. While the Angels have turned up their hitting in May and have actually posted a decent (given where they were coming from) 14-12 record, it hasn’t been at the expense of southpaws. Lefties are holding them to a .205 AVG and fanning them 24% of the time – both rating third-worst in MLB. With his strikeout potential, Capuano has some sneaky upside here.

Tommy Milone, OAK (at SF) – He still has his insane home/road ERA split with a 2.43 in Oakland and 5.28 on the road. I didn’t put him on the “Ignore” because this is still in the Bay Area and AT&T Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the game. Despite the crazy ERA split, I am heartened by the fact that his strikeout rate stays strong on the road (22% home, 19% road) and his 3.7 K/BB ratio on the road is still great. The skills say he doesn’t deserve such a good ERA at home or such a bad one on the road and that he’s a high-3.00s ERA talent.

Tim Lincecum, SF (v. OAK) – The Cy Young Lincecum we had gotten used to has left the building and we don’t know if he’s returning. So you have to disassociate him with the name value that you usually place on him or else you’re going to get burned. This is almost a carbon copy of last year skills wise and while that resulted in a 5.18 season ERA, these skills generally portend to something closer to the mid-4.00s. The A’s offense has sputtered massively in May, particularly because of their struggles against righties with a modest 655 OPS, 26th in MLB. He could be a decent gamble at the outlets that have adjusted his price to his performance, but at somewhere like FanDuel where he is the seventh-most expensive arm of the day, you couldn’t pay me to pick him.

Justin Grimm, TEX (v. ARI) – He’s actually been way better at home (2.79 ERA) than on the road (4.94), but the only impressive outing in Arlington was against the Tigers. Otherwise, he’s beaten the Mariners and White Sox, a couple of terrible lineups. I still don’t fully trust him as I’m seeing far too many base runners for my liking and the D’Backs have a deep enough lineup to make him pay. Be careful.
Marco Estrada, MIL (v. MIN) – He’s faced the same two teams in all of five latest starts: the Pirates and Cardinals. After the Pirates ripped him to start the quintet, he shut them down in the third and fifth starts, but the Cards crushed him in the other two adding up to a 6.11 ERA in all. There are still some nice skills here, but until he stops allowing homers at a 1.7 per game clip, he cannot be trusted at all.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Bronson Arroyo, CIN
• Eric Stults, SD
• Jeremy Hefner, NYM
• Tom Koehler, MIA
• Roberto Hernandez, TB
• Joe Saunders, SEA
• Esmil Rogers, TOR
• Samuel Deduno, MIN
• Luis Mendoza, KC
• Erik Bedard, HOU

_____________________________________________________________________________________

PARK FACTORS: May 29th, 2013

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 29th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.