Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Picks, and Prediction for Thursday Night Football
Steelers vs. Browns Odds
| Steelers Odds | +4 |
| Browns Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 38 |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 22 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Amazon |
This week on Thursday Night Football, NFL fans will be treated to one of the most intense rivalries in the league – a battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. Both teams started the season on a high note, kicking a game-winning field goal during the closing seconds of Week 1. However, both teams suffered close losses in Week 2, meaning that only one of these two clubs will be above the .500 mark at the conclusion of this contest. Oddsmakers are anticipating Cleveland getting back in the win column on Thursday, pricing the Browns as 5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Mitch Trubisky has not played well through the first two weeks of the regular season. Against the Cincinnati Bengals, he completed only 55.3 percent of his pass attempts, but evaded much negative media attention because Pittsburgh secured a win. Following an abysmal showing in Week 2 against the New England Patriots, Trubisky has officially graduated to the hot seat. Yet, it is worth noting that he is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Najee Harris was a first-round talent, selected out of Alabama last summer, but has managed only 2.9 yards-per-carry through two games. Facing a strong Cleveland defense, it is unlikely that Pittsburgh’s offensive woes go away on Thursday.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers are a far less capable group without T.J. Watt on the field. Since Watt started his career with Pittsburgh, the Steelers ranked 3rd best in the NFL in pass EPA when Watt is on the field. In nearly 700 snaps with Watt off of the field, the Steelers rank 30th. Their run EPA drops from 11th to 30th, per Clevta. Though the secondary remains competitive, the interior of the defensive line featuring Larry Ogunjobi and Tyson Alualu, could be in trouble tonight.
Cleveland Browns
In Week 2, the Browns suffered one of the most improbable losses in recent memory. Leading by 13 points with under two minutes remaining in the game, Cleveland has a 99.9 percent win probability, using historical data of teams in similar circumstances. A blown coverage led to a 66-yard touchdown for Corey Davis to make the score 30-24, before a recovered onside kick allowed the New York Jets to march downfield for the game winning score. Still, prior to allowing 128 yards on the final two drives of the contest, the Browns had out-gained New York 384-274 in terms of total yardage. The Browns also dominated the time of possession and had nearly 10 more first downs in the game. Though it might not make any Browns’ fans feel any better, winning the time of possession and moving the chains consistently is a sustainable recipe for winning football games.
Jacoby Brissett threw a costly interception on the final drive of the game, with Cleveland still fighting for a game-winning field goal, but otherwise played excellent on Sunday. He converted 22-of-27 pass attempts and took only one sack. The backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt continues to be the most dominant rushing attack in the league – the two of them combined for 145 rushing yards and another 42 receiving yards in Week 2 after a sensational showing in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers. As long as the offensive line continues to play well, there is hope for the Cleveland offense.
Defensively, there are obvious communication issues that need to be addressed, but talent is far from a concern. Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, Grant Delpit, and John Johnson III form a strong secondary unit. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Anthony Walker have looked like an elite linebacker tandem during the early portion of the new campaign. Myles Garrett is still one of the best edge rushers in the NFL. The absence of Jadeveon Clowney on Thursday against Pittsburgh could make this group slightly more vulnerable against the run, but running more Cover 1 could help off-set those issues in this spot. There is no reason to panic yet for this team.
Steelers vs. Browns Picks & Predictions
The most underrated storyline going into tonight’s action is the weather. Per Kevin Roth, sustained winds of over 20 miles-per-hour are expected for Thursday Night Football on the shores of Lake Erie. The threat of gusts approaching 30 miles-per-hour make it highly unlikely that we see these offensive coordinators take many risks through the air. Consequently, both running games should be featured early and often in this one. A consistently running clock without many quick scores is a breeding ground for a low-scoring affair – take the under.
If looking to pick a side in this one, the Cleveland Browns are unquestionably the better of the two options. Through two weeks, Cleveland’s offense has been much better than many pundits realize – ranking 5th in EPA per play while Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 24th. The Browns also have the better defense in this matchup. Take the home favorites with the points here.
PICK: Under 38, Browns (-4)
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