Primetime Parlay: Steelers vs. Colts Same Game Parlay Picks
Through thousands of simulations using ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool we aim to create profitable same-game parlays across sports betting sites. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sportsbooks to find the best price for a fun primetime parlay sweat. Today, we build a Monday Night Football same-game parlay for the Steelers vs Colts.
The Colts and Steelers meet in Indianapolis for what is likely an inconsequential football game on Monday Night Football. To cling to playoff life, the hometown Colts need to defeat the Steelers and hope for an AFC South miracle. The Steelers are onto 2023 and would love to see some growth from Kenny Pickett and their offense. For us, though, we can always make a primetime contest interesting with a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get started.
Same Game Parlay for Steelers vs. Colts
FanDuel Sportsbook pegs the Indianapolis Colts as 2.5-point favorites at the time of this writing. The Colts opened at -3 but have seen the dip with the help of 84% of the betting money siding with the Steelers. The implied game total sits at 39.5 points and has stayed there since opening.
For injuries, Jaylen Warren is out for the Steelers with his hamstring issue. Najee Harris should assume plenty of usage in his absence as he did last week. Chris Boswell remains on IR and Matthew Wright will continue to fill in the kicker role. For the Colts, aside from long-known injuries, Kylen Granson hit the injury report and is doubtful with an illness to suit up on Monday night.
The Steelers are a top-five defense in the NFL with respect to the running game. Conversely, they struggle with the passing game, giving up 7.5 passing yards per attempt. The Colts’ defense allows only five yards per play — remaining stout against both the run and the pass. Both teams love to run the football which might result in some tough sledding for Monday night.
Same Game Parlay Picks – Steelers & Colts Props
Over 39.5 Points
The simulations produced by ParlayIQ support the over in this contest as does The Blitz projection system. With a game total so very low, I can see why the simulations might like the over — especially in a dome.
Since both teams are very stout against the run, we should see the passing games featured heavily… we should. Assuming both coaches are looking to be as efficient as possible, running the football is not going to work well. Instead, I could see Matt Ryan and Kenny Pickett compiling plenty of pass attempts.
In a dome, with both teams having nothing to lose, I could see the offenses opening up in this game. On paper, this game screams under but I think I am on the side of our simulations.
Najee Harris Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
While the sledding might be tough on the ground, Najee Harris should see copious amounts of touches and opportunities in tonight’s game. With Jaylen Warren sidelined, the Steelers won’t have a choice but to feature Harris on the ground and through the passing game. Harris saw six targets last weekend and will likely be in for a similar share as Kenny Pickett safety valve. This, like other passing overs, is going to correlate well with the game going over its total.
For that reason, ParlayIQ is especially partial to this prop, liking this to hit north of 60% of the time on its own.
Kenny Pickett Over 216.5 Passing Yards
Well, if we are going to go over, we might as well go over. The Colts are a very strong defense but something will have to give if we are scripting north of 40 points. A Colts’ route seems wildly unlikely so the Steelers are going to have to move the ball if we believe in what ParlayIQ and the sims are selling us. Since, I do, I think we see both Kenny Pickett and Matt Ryan throw the football a lot. In today’s NFL, 216.5 passing yards is not a ton. For the game to go over, we need Pickett to breach this number.
We are wildly correlated now with the over which means we need to mix in some statistical under to build in some help with pricing. Based on how correlated this ticket is, I think FanDuel is going to come under what ParlayIQ recommends.
Jonathan Taylor Under 85.5 Rushing Yards
In an effort to negatively correlate, let’s go under with Jonathan Taylor and his rushing yards. The running back has received plenty of work with Jeff Saturday as the interim coach and teammate Deon Jackson knicked up. While Jackson is going to play, I am more worried about how Pittsburgh’s defense might funnel the Colts’ offense.
Since the Steelers are so stout against the run, I don’t imagine Jonathan Taylor will find plenty of room to run. Taylor is always a threat to break a long run but the Steelers’ defense is so strong up front. Big lanes seem unlikely to open up for the star back.
Instead, I imagine Matt Ryan will be throwing the football a lot, tonight. While this will not jive with Jeff Saturday’s normal gameplan, at some point Indianapolis will have to accept reality.
Steelers vs. Colts Parlay Odds
- Over 39.5 Points
- Najee Harris Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
- Kenny Pickett Over 216.5 Passing Yards
- Jonathan Taylor Under 85.5 Rushing Yards
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ParlayIQ recommends the following price:
Unfortunately, I struggled to find a way to marry our script to a ticket on FanDuel with better odds. That said, as we have done once or twice before, we are going to roll with our script:
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +991
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.95 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
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