Steelers vs. Bills Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Harris, Allen, and Kincaid
What kind of performances can we expect during the Wild Card round from Najee Harris, Josh Allen, and Dalton Kincaid? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Monday, January 15, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
NFL Wild Card Weekend will end with a 2-game Monday slate, beginning with a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills at 4:30 PM ET on CBS. Buffalo ran the table after their bye week, finishing 11-6 to pull off an improbable AFC East crown and earn the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh finished the regular season with the 6th-worst point differential in the conference, but they won enough close games to finish 10-7 and earn a Wild Card position.
Ahead of kickoff in this Wild Card matchup, the Bills are favored by 10 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 38.5 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total today, we have three prop leans for today’s matchup between the Steelers and Bills!
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Steelers vs. Bills NFL Player Props – Wild Card Round
- Najee Harris OVER 15.5 Rush Attempts
- Josh Allen OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts
- Dalton Kincaid OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards
Najee Harris OVER 15.5 Rush Attempts (-130), FanDuel
In 3 games since Mason Rudolph took over as the starting quarterback for the Steelers, the team has been unapologetic about their desire to run the football. Despite sharing a good chunk of the backfield responsibility with Jaylen Warren, Harris has received 19 carries, 27 carries, and 26 carries, respectively, in his last 3 games. Despite moving this game from Sunday to Monday, the forecast is still calling for 15 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 30 mph, according to our friendly neighborhood RotoGrinders meteorologist who covers NFL weather for every game. The Steelers are likely to reduce the responsibility of Rudolph as much as possible in this contest, meaning that Harris should be in for another heavy workload.
Josh Allen OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts (-130), FanDuel
During the second half of the regular season, Allen called his own number quite often, with at least 8 rush attempts in 5 of his final 6 games heading into the playoffs. In 4 of those games, he had 9 rush attempts or more and as many as 15 rush attempts (in Week 18’s must-win game against the Dolphins). Pittsburgh’s linebacker corps has been decimated by injury, with neither Cole Holcomb or Kwon Alexander being on the field since Week 10. As a result, Pittsburgh has struggled to contain opposing signal callers, allowing 9 rush attempts to Kyler Murray and 8 rush attempts to Tyler Huntley as two notable examples down the stretch. When factoring in the forecast, the high stakes, and Buffalo’s recent willingness to unleash Allen, the over is a worthwhile risk.
Dalton Kincaid OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115), BetMGM
The Steelers were one of the worst teams in the NFL defending tight ends before their mid-season injuries to linebackers Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander, and they only got worse after they lost those two players. From Week 8 to the end of the regular season, Pittsburgh allowed 88 receiving yards to Evan Engram, 28 receiving yards to Chigoziem Okonkwo, 64 receiving yards to Luke Musgrave, 56 receiving yards to David Njoku, 89 receiving yards to Trey McBride, 40 receiving yards to Hunter Henry, 5 receiving yards to Tanner Hudson, and 31 receiving yards to Isaiah Likely. The only aforementioned player to not go over their pregame market number for receiving yards was Hudson. Playing conditions are a mild concern for the passing game on Monday, but this is simply a systems bet at this point that has been far too profitable to stop taking advantage of now.
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