Suns vs. Clippers Odds, Game 4 Preview, Picks, & Prediction
Suns vs. Clippers Odds
| Suns Odds | +1 |
| Clippers Odds | -1 |
| Moneyline | -110/-110 |
| Over/Under | 218.5 |
| Time | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds accurate as of Saturday at BetMGM | |
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The Phoenix Suns delivered a brutal death blow to the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals: a last-second alley-oop jam by Deandre Ayton off a Jae Crowder inbounds pass. It could have been a pivotal confidence destroyer for the Clips, who had led most of the game despite playing without Kawhi Leonard. But LA rallied in Game 3, and won handily 106-92 in spite of “(player-popup #chris-paul)Chris Paul”:/players/chris-paul-1087’s return from COVID protocols. Now what should NBA bettors expect, with oddsmakers making the Clippers +1 at home in Game 4?
Leonard remains out with his knee sprain, and CP3 will once again be active—although the veteran point guard did not seem to be at 100 percent Thursday. The Clippers will be looking for more heroics from Paul ‘Playoff P’ George, who posted a line of 27 points, 15 rebounds, and 8 assists in the huge win. This is the decisive All-NBA version of PG13 that LA signed up for, and it’s the kind of superstar that Ty Lue will need to have a chance against the formidable threat that is Monty Williams’ Suns.
George has had good help in LA’s Kawhi-less victories, too. Point guard Reggie Jackson has found himself this season, rising above the journeyman stereotype and playing more like an x-factor. Jackson scored 23 points in Game 3, finishing as the second-highest scorer in the contest. Center Ivica Zubac, perhaps avenging the posterization that Ayton put on him at the end of Game 3, put up 15 points and a whopping 16 boards. Terance Mann added 12-5-2, continuing to step up while Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum, Luke Kennard, Rajon Rondo, and Demarcus Cousins remain MIA.
Suns Look to Rebound in Game 4
For the Suns, Game 3 was an abject failure. It might be one of those games in which Williams just throws out the tape and says ‘f—- it’ (although Williams is likely far more intellectual than that sentiment suggests). Not much good can come from dwelling on such an off-night for so many key players. Phoenix shot 35-of-90 from the field (38.9%), and got outrebounded 51-43.
But honestly, no NBA team rebounds from defeat like the Suns. Phoenix has maintained a league-best 17-6 record after losses, good for a 73.9 winning percentage. The Suns’ record against the spread after a loss: an NBA-best 51-32-2 (61.5 cover %).
The Suns have also been the most dominant road team in the league this season. Phoenix has an NBA-best 28-14 record in away games, and a 23-17-2 record ATS in enemy territory. Furthering the cause for Suns bettors, Phoenix is 19-11 straight up as an away favorite.
All season long, we haven’t witnessed two consecutive games in which every Suns player underperformed—and I don’t expect it will happen Saturday. No Phoenix player reached 19 points in Game 3, nor did anyone on the roster reach double-digits in rebounds.
Devin Booker, the MVP of the Western Conference Playoffs to date, had an awful shooting night Thursday. He missed 18 of the 23 shots he took, including six of his seven three-point attempts. He and Paul combined to shoot 10-of-40 from the field (25%) and 3-of-14 from long distance (21.4%). If not for Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson, this could have been a historically bad postseason shooting performance for the Suns.
But as T-Swift said over a certain “sick beat” many years ago, shake it off. The Suns had won nine straight playoff games before that ugly loss, and they have looked like the best, most complete team in hoops all year. Booker has exploded into superstardom, Ayton has more than proven his worth as the 2018 top pick, and CP3 has proven full well that he remains the best floor general in the game. Top to bottom, this team is still the best coached, most disciplined and well-rounded roster in the field.
Suns vs. Clippers Picks and Predictions
Does that mean I am confident in Phoenix pushing out to a 3-1 series lead Saturday? No, no it does not. George makes things very difficult on bettors—he either blows it completely in the clutch, or steamrolls the opposition from the jump. I cannot possibly go all-in against the Clips +1 at home with momentum, but I also don’t want to wager against the crafty and uber-competitive Suns.
So, I offer the lukewarm C- grade on the Suns -1 spread. Quite simply, I’m more interested in the UNDER on the 218.5 total. The past two games in this WCF have finished with totals of 198 (Game 3) and 207 (Game 2). LA’s only hope in this series is to play stifling defense and crash the boards vociferously. We could be looking at another low-scoring affair if the Clips once again play pesky perimeter defense (we’re looking at you, Pat Beverley) and do yeoman’s work on the interior (Zubac nation, turn up!).
Or, we could be looking at the Suns delivering a haymaker Saturday after getting knocked against the ropes Thursday. Your guess is as good as mine on this one, my friends. My honest betting advice—don’t bet on the winner this time, bet on the score.
- Prediction: Suns 107-104
- Pick: Under 218.5
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