Super Bowl 59 MVP Odds, Trends, Picks, and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Eagles
Super Bowl 59 MVP Odds: Mahomes favored to win award
(KC) Patrick Mahomes: +120, Quarterback
(PHI) Saquon Barkley: +260, Running Back
(PHI) Jalen Hurts: +350, Quarterback
(KC) Travis Kelce: +1500, Tight End
(KC) Xavier Worthy: +2800, Wide Receiver
(PHI) A.J. Brown: +3500, Wide Receiver
(KC) Kareem Hunt: +6000, Running Back
(KC) Chris Jones: +6000, Defensive End
(PHI) DeVonta Smith: +6500, Wide Receiver
(PHI) Jalen Carter: +7000, Defensive Tackle
Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs will be playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years when they meet the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans, Louisiana on Sunday, February 9. On the verge of a historic three-peat, oddsmakers have Patrick Mahomes as the most likely candidate to win Super Bowl 59 MVP, followed by Saquon Barkley (+260) and Jalen Hurts (+350) as the only other players under (+1500).
Below, we take a look at Mahomes, Hurts, and a few longshots to see which players could be worth an investment in this market ahead of the biggest sporting event of the year.
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Super Bowl MVP Winners
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(LAR) Cooper Kupp, Wide Receiver
(TB) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(NE) Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver
(PHI) Nick Foles, Quarterback
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(DEN) Von Miller, Linebacker
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(SEA) Malcolm Smith, Linebacker
(BAL) Joe Flacco, Quarterback
(NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
(GB) Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
(NO) Drew Brees, Quarterback
(PIT) Santonio Holmes, Wide Receiver
(NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
(IND) Peyton Manning, Quarterback
(PIT) Hines Ward, Wide Receiver
(NE) Deion Branch, Wide Receiver
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(TB) Dexter Jackson, Cornerback
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
History of Super Bowl MVP Winners: By Position
In the last 23 years, a quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP 15 times (65.2%). A wide receiver has earned the honors on 5 occasions (21.7%). A defensive player has won the award 3 times in that span (13.0%).
Roll the dice on a defensive player?
Though it’s rare that we see defensive players win Super Bowl MVP, the potential payout on such outcomes makes them an enticing wager on an annual basis. Ahead of kickoff in Super Bowl 59, no defensive player has odds shorter than (+6000) to win the award, meaning that even sprinkling a few dollars could result in a few hundred dollars of profit if the correct player is chosen.
So what is the criteria for a defensive player taking home Super Bowl MVP honors?
Each of the last two times that a defensive player has won the award, the winning team held their opponent to 10 points or fewer, and the quarterback had a pedestrian final line. In Super Bowl 50, Peyton Manning had only 13 completions and 141 passing yards with no touchdowns, opening the door for Von Miller, who had 2.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and a pass deflection. In Super Bowl 48, Russell Wilson threw for only 206 passing yards, creating an opportunity for Malcolm Smith, who had a defensive touchdown, a team-leading 10 tackles, and a fumble recovery.
The Eagles are fresh off of a record-setting 55-point performance in the NFC Championship Game, making it unlikely that the Chiefs win an extremely low-scoring affair this evening. Thus, if targeting a defensive player as a longshot, it makes more sense to turn toward the Eagles. LB Zack Baun (+9000) led Philadelphia in tackles and had 3.5 sacks during the regular season. EDGE Josh Sweat (+15000), the team’s sack leader, and Reed Blankenship (+30000), a play-making safety in the secondary unit, could also be worthy of consideration on Sunday.
Longshot wide receiver
If there is one wide receiver who could be worth a small investment, it is A.J. Brown at +3500. In the rare cases that wide receivers win Super Bowl MVP, it’s a result of an outlier performance – either totaling well over 100 receiving yards, catching multiple touchdown passes, or both.
During the regular season, Brown had 5 games with 100+ receiving yards. He’s also one of the league’s best red-zone targets at 6’1’’, 226 pounds, and he has scored multiple touchdowns in a single game 4 times since the beginning of the 2022 campaign.
Brown is positioned for an outlier performance in Super Bowl 59, facing a Kansas City defense that deployed press coverage on a league-high 51.5% of their snaps this season. According to NFL NextGen Stats, Brown led all qualified receivers in target rate and yards per route run against press coverage this year. He was also Philadelphia’s most targeted receiver by a wide margin against man coverage in general. One or two deep balls that lead to scores could be enough to put Brown in the conversation.
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Conservative Route
It is not exactly a bold prediction to say that a quarterback will take home MVP honors in Super Bowl 59, but it’s certainly more probable than not, historically speaking, that Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts will win the award.
Kansas City’s defense has had multiple weeks to prepare for the unstoppable force that is Saquon Barkley. Given defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s track record, it stands to reason that the team’s top priority on Sunday will be figuring out a way to slow down the Philadelphia ground attack. Assuming the Chiefs’ defense can make Saquon Barkley appear mortal, that would force the Eagles’ offense to rely more heavily on Jalen Hurts and the passing game. It’s also worth noting that even a stellar performance from Barkley might not be enough to usurp Hurts. In the NFC Championship Game, Hurts still scored 4 total touchdowns and had 246 passing yards. Barkley is likely to need multiple scores to be a viable candidate for MVP honors – something that could be difficult with the Brotherly Shove in Philadelphia’s offensive arsenal.
On the other side of this matchup, the narrative for Patrick Mahomes writes itself. The Chiefs didn’t have a single receiver with more than 823 receiving yards during the regular season, and the postseason has continued to be more of the same, with a number of players offering valuable contributions but nobody consistently making plays in the passing game. Mahomes has been the NFL’s most productive quarterback in the playoffs since entering the league. He faces the league’s No. 1 defense in Super Bowl 59 (by DVOA), but we have seen him dismantle formidable foes on numerous occasions in the postseason. It’s highly unlikely that a receiver steals MVP honors from Mahomes, and even more unlikely that one of the Chiefs’ inefficient running backs is worthy of such consideration. That leaves Mahomes.
If looking to bet the Chiefs or the Eagles on the spread or moneyline, it is not a bad idea to double-up or split your investment on Hurts or Mahomes to win Super Bowl 59 MVP. If you believe, like many people, that Mahomes is inevitable, then there is significant value in him at (+120). However, Hurts at (+350) is likely the best bet on the board. He is a talented passer with the ability to make plays with his legs as well. He should have shorter odds than Barkley, who has a much narrower path to being the player of the game.
- PICK: Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl 59 MVP (+350), DraftKings
Image Credit: Getty Images