Super Bowl Best Bets: Three Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Predictions
Looking for Super Bowl best bets? We’ve got you covered. Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite trend-backed Super Bowl bets for Chiefs vs. 49ers. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more prop bets for the Super Bowl, with our Props & Pick’em Package for the big game!
Super Bowl 58 will feature the established Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, and the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday evening. Mahomes enters play 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, including a perfect 3-0 straight up in his career as an underdog in the playoffs.
Ahead of kickoff in this Super Bowl matchup, the 49ers are favored by 2.5 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 47.5 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total, we have three prop leans for the matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers!
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Super Bowl Best Bets: Chefs vs. 49ers Predictions
- 1st Quarter Touchdown – NO
- Over 47.5
- Chiefs +2.5
1st Quarter Touchdown — NO (+200), FanDuel
If looking for a longer-shot ticket to add to your card for Super Bowl Sunday, it could be a fun sweat to bank on neither the Chiefs nor the 49ers scoring a touchdown in the 1st quarter. In recent years, there has been more early scoring in the Super Bowl, but the fact remains that the 1st quarter has only been the highest-scoring quarter in only 1 of the last 26 annual events.
Whether it is tied to the unusualness of the theater surrounding the game or something else, teams have routinely slumped out of the gate on the NFL’s biggest stage. Notably, Super Bowl 51 between the Falcons and Patriots was scoreless after one quarter before finishing 34-28. Super Bowl 49 was also scoreless after the opening quarter but finished with a final score of 28-24.
This is not the most fair-market price for a “no-touchdown” incident, but Super Bowl props are often as much about adding enjoyment to the game as they are anything else. This could be a fun way to start the night. Tell your friends that you knew it the whole time if we happened to cash together.
Over 47.5 (-110), FanDuel
Since 1990, the over has hit in 10 of 17 games with a game total of under 50 points, according to Clevta. Though the Chiefs have seen 2 of their first 3 postseason games this year end with 33 points or fewer, this will be their first playoff game played indoors during these playoffs. While Kansas City’s defense has been top-notch all season, they will face an extremely tough test against a San Francisco offense that has scored 30+ points 10 times this season, counting the playoffs.
Even if the 49ers offense fails to do their share of the heavy lifting as far as scoring goes, there is reason to believe that the over could hit in this spot. Patrick Mahomes has been surgical against heavy zone schemes each of his last 2 games, and the 49ers are one of the most zone-heavy defenses in the entire NFL.
Playing on what should be a pristine field, with offenses healthy and rested after a full extra week of rest — we could be in for a shootout in Las Vegas. However, it could be wise to buy in live on the over, given the aforementioned trend about lower-scoring 1st quarters.
Chiefs +2.5 (-115), FanDuel
Per Clevta, teams that make the Super Bowl without covering the spread in any of their other playoff games that season are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS since 2000. Though the 49ers looked unbeatable at times during the regular season, the quality of their schedule has increasingly been questioned of late. San Francisco beat Dallas 42-10 in Week 5, which seemed to be an impressive victory, but less so after watching Dallas get run off of the field by Green Bay in the opening round of the playoffs.
Beating Philadelphia 42-19 in Week 13 also seemed to be a notable victory, but watching Philadelphia get run off of the field by Tampa Bay in the opening round of the postseason also casts doubts on just how impressive that win was as well. An outright loss at home against the Ravens in Week 16 and a pair of 3-point wins over the Packers and Lions in the playoffs paint a pretty strong argument that the 49ers have been one of the more overvalued teams in the NFL this season.
We should know better than to bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog at this point. Even more so when trends favor Mahomes as well.
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