Super Bowl MVP Predictions & Best Bets for Chiefs vs. 49ers
Looking to bet on the Super Bowl MVP? We’ve got you covered. Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his favorite MVP predictions for Super Bowl 58. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more prop bets for the Super Bowl, with our Props & Pick’em Package for the big game!
Super Bowl MVP Odds
- Patrick Mahomes +150
- Brock Purdy +210
- Christian McCaffrey +450
- Travis Kelce +1400
- Isiah Pacheco +2500
- Deebo Samuel +2500
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The Kansas City Chiefs will be playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years when they meet the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, Feb. 11. Still, oddsmakers have Brock Purdy and the 49ers favored to win the game.
Below, we take a look at a brief history of the Super Bowl MVP award, including our recommendation to win the most prestigious award in the biggest sporting event of the year. We also have a longshot recommendation for bettors looking for additional risk.
Past Super Bowl MVP Winners
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(LAR) Cooper Kupp, Wide Receiver
(TB) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(NE) Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver
(PHI) Nick Foles, Quarterback
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(DEN) Von Miller, Linebacker
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(SEA) Malcolm Smith, Linebacker
(BAL) Joe Flacco, Quarterback
(NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
(GB) Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
(NO) Drew Brees, Quarterback
(PIT) Santonio Holmes, Wide Receiver
(NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
(IND) Peyton Manning, Quarterback
(PIT) Hines Ward, Wide Receiver
(NE) Deion Branch, Wide Receiver
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(TB) Dexter Jackson, Cornerback
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
History of Super Bowl MVP Winners By Position
In the last 22 years, a quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP 14 times (63.6%). A wide receiver has earned the honors on 5 occasions (22.7%). A defensive player has won the award 3 times in that span (13.6%).
Bet on a defensive player?
Each of the last two times a defensive player earned Super Bowl MVP honors, his team held their opponent to 10 points or fewer, and their own quarterback had an underwhelming final collection of statistics.
In Super Bowl 50, Peyton Manning finished with only 13 completions and 141 passing yards, throwing zero touchdowns. As a result, Von Miller was seen as a worthy recipient of the award, having compiled 2.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and a pass deflection.
In Super Bowl 48, Russell Wilson had only 206 passing yards, which opened the door for Malcolm Smith. Smith had a defensive touchdown, team-leading 10 tackles, and a fumble recovery in a winning effort over the Broncos.
If there is any path to a defensive player winning the award this evening, it is likely to be a member of the Chiefs. Brock Purdy has not been immune to extremely poor performances this year, notably throwing 4 interceptions against the Ravens on Christmas. Chris Jones (+11000) and Trent McDuffie (+60000) are two lottery tickets perhaps worthy of a sprinkle ahead of kickoff this evening.
- SUPER BOWL MVP BET: Jones +11000 & McDuffie +60000
Longshot wide receiver
If there is one wide receiver who could be worth a small investment, it is Deebo Samuel (+2500). Though it is rare for a wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP honors, there is a precedent for it to happen, and we have criteria that makes it possible. When a wide receiver wins Super Bowl MVP, it likely means that he either totaled well over 100 receiving yards, caught multiple touchdown passes, or both.
Samuel is a unique pregame ticket for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, his stock is low heading into the Super Bowl due to the fact that he has not been healthy during San Francisco’s entire postseason run. Secondly, Samuel is a dual-threat for the 49ers offense, offering big-play potential as a receiver and as a runner.
Samuel had only 7 rushing yards in the NFC Championship Game against the Lions, but he had 3 attempts, and we have seen him finish with as many as 72 rushing yards as recently as 2021. Though he is unlikely to get to 10 carries this evening, a Christian McCaffrey injury could result in Samuel having a much larger involvement in the offense than many people are anticipating. Even if McCaffrey plays the entire game, Samuel is capable of 100+ receiving yards, at which point 30 rushing could be enough to put his name in the conversation for the award.
- SUPER BOWL MVP BET: Samuel +2500
Most likely winner
Patrick Mahomes is not the sexy pick to win Super Bowl 58 MVP honors, but he is the correct pick if betting the Chiefs to win tonight’s game. Mahomes has proof of concept in two ways: 1) Having won the award twice himself, and 2) The fact that he plays the most important position on the football field.
Mahomes has yet to put up any gaudy passing numbers during Kansas City’s current postseason run, but that has much more to do with weather and game script than anything else. Mahomes and the Chiefs were on cruise control in an Ice Bowl against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round. Facing the Bills in the Divisional round, Mahomes completed 73.9% of his pass attempts but had only 23 passing attempts on a night when the Chiefs had immense success running the football. Mahomes dominated the first half against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, but the game plan emphasized ball control more than gun slinging in the second half with them playing with a two-score lead.
Tonight, the 49ers could challenge Mahomes and the Chiefs into a more pass-heavy game plan, which could result in Mahomes’ first 300-yard passing performance during these playoffs. If there is any debate as to who the best player on the field was in a Kansas City victory, Mahomes is surely going to come away with the honors. At +150, this is great value on the best quarterback the NFL has seen outside of Tom Brady.
- SUPER BOWL MVP BET: Mahomes +150
Image Credit: Getty Images