Super Bowl Props: Three Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Predictions
Looking for Super Bowl props? We’ve got you covered. Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite Patrick Mahomes player props against the 49ers. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more prop bets for the Super Bowl, with our Props & Pick’em Package for the big game!
On Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will be making their 4th Super Bowl appearance in the last 5 seasons when they meet the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas. Mahomes and company endured a number of obstacles during an inconsistent regular season, but they have looked as dominant as ever during their 3 playoff games. Heading into the weekend, Mahomes and the Chiefs have a legitimate opportunity to become the first team since the 2004 Patriots, led by Tom Brady, to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles — and only the 8th team in NFL history to accomplish the rare feat.
Ahead of kickoff in this Super Bowl matchup, the 49ers are favored by 2.5 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 47.5 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total, we have three prop leans for the matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers!
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Patrick Mahomes Props & Predictions
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 260.5 Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 Completions
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes OVER 260.5 Passing Yards (-115), BetMGM
Patrick Mahomes has ostensibly had a rather pedestrian postseason to date, throwing for 262 yards against the Dolphins, 215 yards against the Bills and 241 yards against the Ravens. However, those numbers look far more impressive when put in proper context. The game against Miami was played in weather conditions more appropriate for penguins than human beings.
The Chiefs averaged 6.1 yards per carry on the ground against Buffalo, forcing Mahomes to throw the ball only 23 times in a winning effort. Against Baltimore, Mahomes and company jumped out to a sizable first-half lead and largely took their foot off of the gas pedal in the second half, prioritizing clock management over gaudy statistics. In the Super Bowl, Mahomes will not have to worry about adverse weather conditions, playing inside at Allegiant Stadium.
He will also get a favorable matchup against a 49ers defense that allowed 273 passing yards to Jared Goff in the NFC Championship Game. It would not be surprising in the slightest to see Mahomes flirt with 300 passing yards in this spot.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 Completions (+104), FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes has eclipsed this market number in only 1 of 3 postseason games during these playoffs, but there is reason to believe that he could be in for a big game through the air in the Super Bowl. The Dolphins played man coverage against Mahomes on 86.5% of snaps in the Wild Card Round, holding him to a 56.1% completion rate.
However, Mahomes had a 73.9% completion percentage against the Bills in the Divisional Round and a 76.9% completion rate against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game — two teams that played man coverage on 56.3% or fewer of their defensive snaps during their playoff run. The 49ers have played man coverage only 24.3% of the time so far during these playoffs, which is, by far, the lowest rate of any team in the NFL.
During the regular season, only 4 teams played man coverage less frequently than the 49ers. San Francisco allowed a 69.7% completion rate when playing zone coverage during the regular season, illustrating that they are not particularly well-equipped to slow down the Kansas City passing attack in this matchup. At plus money, the over is a worthwhile risk here.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140), FanDuel
If there is one thing Patrick Mahomes has proven time and time again during his career, it is that he shows up in big moments. Mahomes had a first-quarter touchdown pass against both the Dolphins and Ravens before the Chiefs pulled ahead by a comfortable margin. In a more competitive game script, he almost certainly would have had multiple touchdowns through the air. Mahomes had multiple touchdown passes against the Bills in the Divisional Round in a game that was decided by 3 points, and he has multiple touchdown passes in each of his 6 playoff games across the previous two seasons prior to this year. At playable odds, this is simply a must-bet for at least a small amount.
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