Tennessee vs. Alabama Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-10-25 18:11:23

Tennessee vs. Alabama Odds

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

On Saturday afternoon, college football fans have an exciting Week 8 matchup between #17 Tennessee and #11 Alabama on tap. Entering play, both teams still have their national title hopes alive, with only one loss on the season.

Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Alabama as 8.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 48 points.

In our Tennessee vs. Alabama betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.

Tennessee

Milton continues to struggle under pressure

Through six games played this season, Joe Milton ranks 76th in the nation in QBR and 212th out of 272 qualified quarterbacks in passing grade, according to PFF. Milton has “led” Tennessee to a 6-1 record this year, but it might be fairer to say that he has been carried to the vast majority of those wins – including last week’s 20-13 victory in which he threw for only 100 passing yards and ran for only 34 rushing yards.

Milton has struggled to make the easy plays look easy this fall, something that both Tim Tebow and Roman Harper commented on in an interview earlier this week. Milton has also struggled mightily under pressure, completing only 27.8% of his pass attempts.

Alabama has one of the best pass rush units in the country, ranking 8th out of 133 schools in pass rush grade this year, according to PFF. Milton played his worst game of the season in Week 7 against Texas A&M, which ranks 15th in that metric. Playing on the road against an even tougher Alabama defense is only going to make life more difficult. This offense is likely to find points tough to come by once again on Saturday.

Norman-Lott returns to action for Tennessee defense

After missing last week’s contest against Texas A&M, Omarr Norman-Lott will return to the field this weekend. Norman-Lott has been a key contributor on Tennessee’s defensive line so far this fall, ranking 61st out of 865 players at his position in defense grade, according to PFF. Despite not playing in Week 7, he ranks fourth on the defense in quarterback pressures and 10th in total tackles. Defensive tackle Daevin Hobbs is also trending towards being active this weekend, according to head coach Josh Heupel, which gives Tennessee’s defensive line another quality depth piece in this matchup.

Alabama

Jalen Milroe making steady progress

Earlier this fall, Jalen Milroe had a number of costly mistakes in a 34-24 loss to Texas, throwing two interceptions and completing only 51.9% of his passes. Milroe was benched the following week against South Florida but returned to the field looking like a completely different player against Ole Miss the following week – completing 17-of-21 pass attempts. He has only gotten better in recent weeks, compiling a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. He threw for a season-high 321 passing yards in a win over Texas A&M and looked very much like a signal caller capable of leading this Alabama offense going forward.

Milroe has performed adequately under pressure this season, but his turnover-worthy play rate is more than twice as high in such situations compared to when he throws from a clean pocket. Facing a tough Tennessee pass rush on Saturday, taking care of the football will be a key area of emphasis for him.

Moore, Marshall listed as game-time decisions for Alabama defense

According to head coach Nick Saban, safety Malachi Moore is officially listed as a game-time decision for Saturday’s game against Tennessee, but the belief is that he is expected to play, per Matt Zenitz. Moore did not play in Week 7 after leaving Alabama’s Week 6 game early with an ankle injury. Moore ranks 116th out of 803 qualified safeties in coverage grade in 2023, per PFF, and 164th against the run. He is Alabama’s primary slot cornerback, and one of the better slot cornerbacks in the nation.

Linebacker Trezmen Marshall suffered an injury during last week’s game against Arkansas, but he reportedly feels ready to play in Week 8 against Tennessee. Saban has listed Marshall as a game-time decision, similar to Moore. Marshall has struggled at times in 2023, but he has the second-most tackles on Alabama’s defense and ranks fourth on the team in sacks through seven games. This unit would benefit from him being on the football field this weekend.

Tennessee vs. Alabama – Picks & Predictions

Saturday’s game in Tuscaloosa will only be Tennessee’s second road game of the season. In their first away game, Tennessee scored only 16 points and had 10 penalties for 79 yards against Florida. Despite Jalen Milroe playing better in recent weeks, Alabama’s game totals have finished with 46 points or fewer three times in the last four weeks. In the last three weeks, Tennessee ranks 49th out of 133 schools in pace of play, and Alabama ranks 104th. Both of these pass rushes are elite, which figures to limit explosive plays and force more than a handful of punts. Defensive scores and special teams mistakes are always a risk when betting an under, but neither of these quarterbacks should lead anyone to expect a shootout in this matchup.

PICK: Under 48 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)

Free PrizePicks Prediction

Jalen Milroe More Than 0.5 Interceptions, PrizePicks

According to PFF, Jalen Milroe has a 2.5% turnover-worthy play rate this season from a clean pocket, compared to a 5.6% turnover-worthy play rate when under pressure. On Saturday, Milroe will face one of the best pass rushes in the nation. Tennessee will also be returning Omarr Norman-Lott to the field, who ranks fourth on the team in pressures in 2023. Milroe has thrown an interception in three of his last five games and in both games he has played against ranked opponents this season. He is likely good for at least one costly mistake in this spot.

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