Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction & Top Prop Pick
On Saturday night, #11 Tennessee will travel to the swamp to battle Florida in an exciting Week 3 college football matchup. Tennessee enters play fresh off of back-to-back wins and is seeking a 3-0 start. Florida lost their season opener to Utah, but rebounded last weekend with a big win and will be looking to get over the .500 mark for the first time in 2023. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, Tennessee is priced as 5.5-point favorites on the spread, with the total set at 56.5 points.
In our Tennessee vs. Florida betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
Texas vs. Alabama Odds
| Tennessee Odds | -5.5 |
| Florida Odds | +5.5 |
| Over/Under | 56.5 |
| Date | Sat, Sep. 16 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tennessee Volunteers
Marvelous Milton leads Volunteers offense
Since transferring to Tennessee, Joe Milton has posted a sterling 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. To begin 2023, Milton is 42-for-63 for four passing touchdowns and 429 passing yards. He has added another three scores with his legs. Simply, he has made good decisions with the football and made plays when opportunities have presented themselves. Playing behind a strong offensive line, he is unlikely to find himself under too much pressure on Saturday night against a Florida defense that had zero sacks against Utah in their season opener and only two sacks against McNeese last weekend.
How good is Tennessee’s defense?
According to Phil Steele, Tennessee had seven returning starters on the defensive side of the ball entering 2023, including each of their top-two tacklers from last season. However, this group did lose Bryon Young to the NFL Draft this past summer. Young led the team with 14 quarterback hits in 2022 and had a team-high seven sacks. At linebacker, Tennessee lost Jeremy Banks and Juwan Mitchell, both of whom ranked in the top seven on the defense last year in tackles and combined for 15 starts. It is difficult to assess the true talent level of this group after facing back-to-back weak opponents to start the year. The only thing we know for certain is that defensive coordinator Tim Banks has less talent this year than he did last year.
Florida Gators
Graham Mertz looking to build on positive momentum
Following a poor showing in the season opener against Utah, Graham Mertz responded with a clean game in Week 2 against McNeese. Despite the fact that McNeese has much less talent than Florida, it was encouraging to see Mertz put together an efficient and clean outing – completing 14-of-17 passes for 193 passing yards and a touchdown. The larger concern for Florida in this matchup and going forward is their offensive line. Against Utah, the Gators allowed five sacks and only helped the ground game to 13 rushing yards on 21 attempts. If the offensive line cannot play better on Saturday, it will put a lot of pressure on Mertz and the passing game to generate points.
Can the Florida defense slow down Milton?
Florida had only five returning starters on the defensive side of the ball entering 2023, but they have played well to begin the year. Facing Utah, albeit against a backup quarterback, Florida allowed only 270 yards of total offense. Last week, the Gators held McNeese to 112 yards of total offense. The linebacker unit is a major liability after losing each of last year’s starters. However, the defensive line remains capable of getting stops against the run, and the secondary unit has enough talent to keep themselves from being gashed for too many deep plays. This will be their toughest test yet, but they are likely up for the challenge.
Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction and Betting Picks
In two games this season, Florida has yet to have a game go over 56 points. Tennessee and Virginia combined for 62 points to begin the season, but Tennessee and Austin Peay had only 43 combined points last weekend. Simply, the Gators do not have a quarterback who is capable of throwing the ball deep on a consistent basis, nor is Mertz a dual-threat who extends plays with his legs. Tennessee has the big-armed Joe Milton as their signal caller, but a lack of high-end talent in their wide receiver room limits the overall upside of their offensive attack. Neither of these defenses is elite, but they should be able to do enough to keep this contest relatively low scoring. Take the under here.
FREE PICK: Under 56.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Joe Milton More Than 251.5 Passing Yards, PrizePicks
Joe Milton had 201 passing yards against Virginia and 228 passing yards against Austin Peay, but he was not asked to do anything extraordinary in either contest, with Tennessee jumping out to a big lead in both games. This weekend, the Volunteers are likely to need a lot more from Milton in a game that projects to be much more competitive. Milton had 251 passing yards against Clemson in last December’s Orange Bowl. He has a big arm, which gives him the ability to do damage against a relatively weak Florida secondary unit. He should be competitive at this number on Saturday evening.
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