Texans vs. Cowboys Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Texans vs. Cowboys Odds
| Texans Odds | -7.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 41 |
| Date | Monday, November 18 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans against CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Texans as 7.5-point road favorites on the spread. The total is set at 41 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, CJ Stroud is only 5-10 ATS as a favorite during his NFL career. Houston’s game totals have gone under in 8 of their 10 contests in 2024.
Houston Texans Preview
Collins expected to return to the field
From Week 1 to Week 4, with WR Nico Collins playing a full allotment of snaps, CJ Stroud ranked 15th in EPA/play, 24th in success rate, and 19th in CPOE among qualified quarterbacks. From Week 6 to Week 10, with Collins inactive, Stroud ranked 28th in EPA/play, 31st in success rate, and 36th in CPOE among 39 quarterbacks with 40+ dropbacks.
The hope is that Collins’ return will be able to jump-start a Houston offense that has struggled mightily in his absence. Last weekend, Houston was shut out in the 2nd half of a 3-point loss to the Lions at home. The week prior, they scored only 13 points against the Jets, which have had one of the league’s worst defenses since firing Robert Saleh.
There is only room for improvement in this unit with Collins making his way back onto the field.
Anderson ruled OUT, Lassiter QUESTIONABLE
Pass rusher Will Anderson has been ruled out for the 2nd consecutive week due to an ankle injury. Anderson, the team’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss, is a significant absence for this defense. Anderson played only 8 snaps in Week 9 prior to getting hurt and then didn’t play last week. In those 2 games, Houston’s defensive pressure rate has ranked 20th in consecutive weeks. Simply, this group is struggling to make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks right now.
The other notable injury news for the Texans on this side of the ball this evening is the status of CB Kamari Lassiter. Lassiter didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday but was able to log a limited session on Saturday as he tries to graduate from concussion protocol. Lassiter has been excellent in 2024, ranking 32nd out of 111 players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF.
If Lassiter is unable to go, it could be a bad recipe for Houston’s defense. Teams that can’t get pressure and are down starters in the secondary unit typically don’t perform well – regardless of opponent.
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Any hope for Dallas offense?
In Week 10, the Cowboys tried both Cooper Rush and Trey Lance at quarterback, but neither option led to much success. Among 29 quarterbacks to have 10+ dropbacks last weekend, Rush and Lance ranked 29th and 27th, respectively, in EPA/play. They ranked 29th and 28th, respectively, in success rate.
The net result was only 6 points, with the two signal callers combining to complete only 17-of-29 pass attempts for 66 yards – a staggering level of effectiveness. If there was anything positive to take away from that contest, it was that the Dallas rushing attack finally showed some signs of life. Rico Dowdle has taken over as the team’s primary option on early downs and has now averaged 4.2 yards per carry or better in each of the 4 games this season he has been given 11+ rushing attempts. If the Cowboys can find some success on the ground, there is a path to them being competitive in this spot.
Cowboys’ defense keys to success on Monday
The number one priority for the Dallas defense has to be finding a way to control Houston’s ground attack. The Texans have been heavily relying on Joe Mixon in positive game scripts of late, which has led to him totaling four 100-yard rushing performances in the team’s last 5 wins. Admittedly, this could be a challenge for the Cowboys defense, which ranks 32nd in EPA/play, 30th in success rate, and 29th in DVOA this fall.
Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction
Even though last week’s Cowboys game was hard to watch for many reasons, bettors have to operate from the assumption that what they saw against the Eagles was rock bottom. Simply, there is only room for improvement after totaling 146 yards of total offense.
The good news for Dallas fans is that Cooper Rush (and maybe Trey Lance?) get a much more favorable matchup in Week 11 against a Houston defense that could be missing multiple starters once again. If the Cowboys defense can limit the production of Nico Collins, there is a path to Dallas keeping a low-scoring game relatively competitive.
PICK: Cowboys +7.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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