Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-10-14 13:36:32

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee Odds

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

College football fans have plenty of exciting action on tap for Saturday’s Week 7 slate, including an afternoon affair between Texas A&M and #19 Tennessee.

Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Tennessee as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 55 points.

In our Texas A&M vs. Tennessee betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.

Texas A&M

Weigman, Green ruled OUT for Saturday

On Saturday, Texas A&M will be without their starting quarterback, Conner Weigman, who is dealing with a foot injury. In his place, Max Johnson will draw another start. Johnson has performed adequately so far this fall, completing 60.7% of his pass attempts and posting a 7-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Still, he is a notable downgrade from Weigman, especially under pressure.

According to PFF, Johnson has completed only 36.1% of his pass attempts for 5.2 yards per attempt when under duress this season, compared to a 76.0% completion rate and 9.8 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. Johnson has a 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate when kept clean compared to a 7.5% turnover-worthy play rate under pressure. Facing one of the better pass rushes in the nation, Johnson is likely to struggle on Saturday afternoon.

Gilbert ruled OUT for Aggies’ defense

According to Aggies Wire, defensive back Jardin Gilbert will miss Saturday’s contest against Tennessee due to a shoulder injury. Gilbert was fifth on the team in tackles in 2022 and was off to another strong start in 2023 before getting hurt in Week 2. Fortunately for Texas A&M, safety Jacoby Mathews has played well in an expanded role in recent weeks to fortify this secondary unit.

Heading into 2023, Texas A&M had 10 returning starters on the defensive side of the ball, and the results have been self-evident across the last month. Other than a 48-33 loss on the road at Miami, the Aggies defense has been stout, allowing 22 points or fewer against UL Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas, and Alabama. The only road game this group has played this year does not bode well for their chances on Saturday, but their overall body of work suggests that they are one of the better defenses in the country.

Tennessee

What to expect from Joe Milton

Joe Milton has been underwhelming so far this season, ranking 77th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR and 194th out of 272 signal callers in PFF passing grade. Milton has been particularly poor under pressure, completing only 29.0% of his pass attempts. He has been much more effective when kept clean – posting a 71.3% completion rate and a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Milton faces a tough test in Week 7 against an Aggies defense that returned all four starters on their defensive line for the 2023 season. According to PFF, Texas A&M ranks 21st out of 133 schools in pass rush grade this year. For context, South Carolina ranks 88th, UTSA ranks 67th, and Virginia ranks 106th in that same metric. Only Florida, which ranks 13th, has graded as a better pass rushing defense this year, and Florida held Tennessee to 16 points less than a month ago.

Tennessee’s defense looking to stay hot

During the first month of the season, Tennessee’s defense allowed 20 points or fewer to four of their five opponents, and 14 points or fewer three times. The lone exception in that sample was a 29-16 defeat at the hands of the Florida Gators on the road. On Saturday, the Volunteers have the benefit of coming off of a bye week coupled with another home matchup – this time, facing a backup quarterback.

If Tennessee can get pressure on quarterback Max Johnson in this contest, they should once again be able to limit the damage done by their opponent’s offense.

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee – Picks & Predictions

Tennessee likes to play at a quick pace, but Texas A&M has slowed down their offense significantly with backup quarterback Max Johnson on the field. In this matchup, both defenses are adept at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and neither signal caller in this contest has fared well when under duress in 2023. Assuming we do not see any significant chaos on special teams, the under has a great chance to hit in this spot.

PICK: Under 55 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)

Free PrizePicks Prediction

Max Johnson Less Than 217.5 Pass Yards, PrizePicks

This season, Max Johnson is completing 76.0% of his pass attempts for 9.8 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, but only 36.1% of his pass attempts for 5.2 yards per attempt when under pressure, per PFF. On Saturday, Johnson will be playing on the road against a Tennessee defense that has one of the best collection of pass rushers of any team in the nation. Tennessee also had an extra week of preparation for this contest, with last week being their bye week. Johnson is likely to struggle significantly in this spot.

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