Texas vs. Alabama Spread Prediction & Top Prop Pick
On Saturday night, #11 Texas and #3 Alabama will meet in Tuscaloosa for a battle that has significant college football playoff implications. Both Texas and Alabama won last weekend and will be looking to move to 2-0 in this contest. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Ahead of kickoff, Alabama is priced as 7.5-point favorites on the spread, with the total set at 53.5 points.
In our Texas vs. Alabama betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
Texas vs. Alabama Odds
| Texas Odds | +7.5 |
| Alabama Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 53.5 |
| Date | Sat, Sep. 9 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Longhorns
Ewers leads experienced Texas offense
Texas had 10 returning starters entering the 2023 season, including quarterback Quinn Ewers and their entire offensive line. Last fall, the Longhorns had the same five offensive lineman start all 13 games, and all of them returned for this season. The only notable loss for this unit is Bijan Robinson, who ran for 1,580 rushing yards and scored 20 touchdowns in 2022. Robinson was selected in the first round of this past summer’s NFL Draft, but this running back room has enough talent to collectively match last year’s production, playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders each made an All-Big 12 team last season and are back once again to catch passes from Ewers.
Texas Tough defense
According to Phil Steele, Texas returns only six starters on defense this year, but they do have three of their top-four tacklers from 2022 back. The defensive line lost Ovie Oghoufo, Keondre Coburn, and Moro Ojomo this off-season, but only Ojomo, a seventh-round draft choice by the Philadelphia Eagles, was a true standout talent from that unit. The Longhorns most notable defensive loss is DeMarvion Overshown, who ranked second on the team in tackles last year and was taken in the third round by the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL Draft. Still, the second level of the defense projects well with Jahdae Barron and Jaylan Ford returning. The secondary unit, led by cornerback Ryan Watts, is one of the best in the country.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Milroe faces tough test on Saturday
Jalen Milroe is a legitimate dual-threat signal caller, capable of making plays with both his arms and his legs. However, his decision-making with the football remains suspect. Milroe took care of the ball last weekend against Middle Tennessee, but threw three interceptions in 2022, having only 53 pass attempts. The running back room lost Jahmyr Gibbs to the Detroit Lions in the first round of this past summer’s NFL Draft. In their first action this fall, Jase McClellan led this group in production, but had only 39 rushing yards on 10 attempts against a weak opponent. The running back position is also weak in pass protection, as JonesyTrendz noted after his film room of last week’s action. The offensive line has only two returning starters, which is a major concern heading into this matchup against Texas.
Can the Crimson Tide defense compete in this matchup?
Similar to the offense, Alabama’s defense lost a tremendous amount of talent to the NFL Draft this past summer. In total, each of their top-five tacklers are gone from 2022 and only one of their top-eight tacklers returns. Defensive end Byron Young, linebacker Will Anderson, linebacker DeMarco Hellams, linebacker Henry To’oTo’o, safety Brian Branch, and safety Jordan Battle were each drafted – four of which went in the first three rounds. The defensive line has only three players with starting experience. The linebacker unit is unquestionably weaker than last fall. The secondary unit has talent, but lacks continuity, which is often a recipe for communication breakdowns and blown coverages early in the season. The Crimson Tide also have a new defensive coordinator for 2023, further emphasizing the fact that there are a lot of moving pieces on this side of the ball.
Texas vs. Alabama Prediction and Betting Picks
Alabama always seems invincible, until all of a sudden they aren’t. At that point, the benefit of hindsight makes it abundantly clear where they were deficient heading into a matchup. On Saturday, the Crimson Tide are thoroughly overmatched in terms of pure talent. Texas has 10 returning starters, including an experienced offensive line and one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Alabama has only two returning starters on the offensive line and plenty of question marks at every level of their defense. We have learned to respect the genius of Nick Saban, so we will not go crazy here – take the points and trust Texas to, at least, keep this contest competitive.
FREE PICK: Texas +7.5 (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Jalen Milroe more than 52.5 Rushing Yards, PrizePicks
Jalen Milroe is a dual-threat quarterback, but his best skill is his ability to use his legs to make plays. Milroe had only one game in 2022 in which he attempted more than 10 passes – against Texas A&M. In that game, Milroe had 111 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. In Week 1, Milroe led the Crimson Tide with 48 rushing yards in a 56-7 blowout victory. He should be plenty active with his legs in this one, and he should be very competitive at this market number.
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More College Football Spreads for Week 2
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Total | Implied Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Notre Dame | North Carolina State  | -7.5 | 51 | 29.25 |
| North Carolina State | Notre Dame | 7.5 | 51 | 21.75 |
James Madison | Virginia  | -7 | 40.5 | 23.75 |
| Virginia | James Madison | 7 | 40.5 | 16.75 |
Purdue | Virginia Tech  | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 |
| Virginia Tech | Purdue | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 |
Troy | Kansas State  | 16.5 | 50 | 16.75 |
| Kansas State | Troy | -16.5 | 50 | 33.25 |
Utah | Baylor  | -7.5 | 47.5 | 27.5 |
| Baylor | Utah | 7.5 | 47.5 | 20 |
Nebraska | Colorado  | 3 | 58 | 27.5 |
| Colorado | Nebraska | -3 | 58 | 30.5 |
Eastern Kentucky | Kentucky  | 31.5 | 52.5 | 10.5 |
| Kentucky | Eastern Kentucky | -31.5 | 52.5 | 42 |
Texas A&M | Miami (Florida)  | -4 | 51 | 27.5 |
| Miami (Florida) | Texas A&M | 4 | 51 | 23.5 |
Iowa | Iowa State  | None | None | None |
| Iowa State | Iowa | None | None | None |
Mississippi | Tulane  | -7.5 | 64 | 35.75 |
| Tulane | Mississippi | 7.5 | 64 | 28.25 |
UTEP  | Northwestern  | -1.5 | 38.5 | 20 |
| Northwestern | UTEP | 1.5 | 38.5 | 18.5 |
UNLV  | Michigan  | 36 | 57.5 | 10.75 |
| Michigan | UNLV | -36 | 57.5 | 46.75 |