THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-03-13 12:28:56

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for THE PLAYERS Championship. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Scottie Scheffler returned to glory with another victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scheffler lapped the field on Sunday with a bogey-free round, exhibiting his prowess if the putter is effective. With Scheffler playing this well at a signature event, do we expect another incredible run to continue at TPC Sawgrass?

Scheffler headlines the best field in golf this week at THE PLAYERS Championship. With a full field of actual professional golfers, THE PLAYERS never disappoints. Will Scheffler dominate again? Will a long-shot golfer make a run on Sunday? Let’s dig into the field, betting odds, and the course before building our card.

THE PLAYERS Championship Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 12th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of THE PLAYERS Championship:

• 2023 – Scottie Scheffler (-17)
• 2022 – Cameron Smith (-13)
• 2021 – Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019 – Rory McIlroy (-16)
• 2018 – Webb Simpson (-18)
• 2017 – Si Woo Kim (-10)
• 2016 – Jason Day (-15)
• 2015 – Rickie Fowler (-12)

THE PLAYERS Championship is widely considered the best field of the year on the PGA TOUR. Often referred to as the fifth major, the game’s best tee it up in a field of 144 golfers with no amateurs, club professionals, or retired ex-champions. The top 65 players and ties will make the weekend in this prestigious event. Every past champion of this event since 2014 will play in this year’s field except Cam Smith.

Scottie Scheffler headlines the field but is joined by several top golfers in great form in 2024. Xander Schauffele continues to stack top finishes and seems overdue for a career-defining victory. Justin Thomas climbed to the top of the odds board, as he continued to show old form at an event he previously won. Rory McIlroy disappointed on Sunday at the API but will always be in consideration at TPC Sawgrass. McIlroy was the first to win THE PLAYERS Championship when it moved to March. Hideki Matsuyama infamously lit the course up in 2020 before the global pandemic shut the tournament down.

With so many players in the field and so much talent, we have our pick of plenty of accomplished golfers north of 100-1. Will one of these long shots make a run this weekend? Or will someone from the top of the board cruise to victory? Let’s look at TPC Sawgrass before building our betting card.

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Sawgrass
• Date: March 14-17
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,189
• Greens: Poa Overseed

The par 3, 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass will live rent-free in the minds of every golfer playing in this week’s tournament. Regardless of the state of the round that day, players will look ahead to finding the island green and avoiding disaster. Excellent rounds during THE PLAYERS Championship can take a terrible turn with one swing.

Relative to other courses on TOUR, TPC Sawgrass is pretty short for a Par 72. There are five tough holes in the 450-500 yard par 4 buckets but five par 5s to offer ample opportunities at birdie or better. The short 11th at around 300 yards yields more than 25% birdies.

The Pete Dye-designed course features water everywhere. Big numbers are lurking at every turn at TPC Sawgrass, where one lapse of concentration can lead to a double bogey or worse. After the 17th comes the extremely challenging 18th. Most leads going into the last hole will not be safe.

Distance is not a concern at TPC Sawgrass and we can expect most players to play to numbers, even if it means clubbing down off of the tee. The rough will not be as treacherous as Bay Hill, but players still need to find the short grass to dial in their approach shots to some of the largest greens on TOUR. Putting will be of great importance, as we will likely see many players opt for the Texas Wedge since most greens feature tightly mown areas instead of long grass.

Recent form is vital ahead of THE PLAYERS Championship as course history doesn’t seem to be too sticky. Past champions have one or more missed cuts on their resume, as the variance in play with water and wind can take any player out of the tournament. Scottie Scheffler is obviously in fine form, along with players like Will Zalatoris, Shane Lowry, and long shot, Tom Hoge.

We will prioritize SG: Approach, as usual, as well as fairways, P4 450-500, par 5 scoring, putting, and bogey avoidance. The weather looks to be okay ahead of the tournament, but any change with wind could make the course play very difficult.

Let’s build this week’s betting card for one of the best fields of the season.

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2024 THE PLAYERS Championship: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• Fairways Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Par 5
• SG: Putting

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Will Zalatoris +3300 (FanDuel)

I am at the point where Zalatoris is going to get an outright bet from me every week until he wins again on TOUR. Opening up at 25-1, Zalatoris can be found at 33-1 at the time of this writing on FanDuel Sportsbook. With his health issues seemingly in the past, Zalatoris is far too talented to ignore at a course that favors precise approach play.

He has been in great form of late and has even gained with the putter in three straight events. He has never missed a cut at TPC Sawgrass but hasn’t made a deep run on the weekend either. A career-defining victory is in the cards for this prodigious iron player. We open our card with Zalatoris and hope he finally breaks through.

Ludvig Aberg +3500 (PointsBet)

Youth might be a theme on this betting card, as my second slot features Aberg. After climbing into the teens at most tournaments for betting odds, we get a discount on the young debutant this week. Aberg is known for his exceptional driving but has played well on shorter courses early in his career. With a victory at the RSM and a strong finish at Pebble Beach, Aberg showed the ability to club down and keep the ball in the fairway.

Aberg rests in the top 10 of this week’s field in opportunities, BOB%, and strokes gained on our key par 4 bucket (450-500). Aberg, like Zalatoris, seems in store for an incredible career on TOUR. A victory at THE PLAYERS Championship would kick-start his legacy.

Tom Hoge +7000 (FanDuel)

Hoge ranks 2nd in the model built with the aforementioned key statistics over his last 24 rounds. Last season, Hoge finished 3rd at THE PLAYERS Championship. While course history isn’t as important to me this week, Hoge playing well at a target golf course makes plenty of sense.

He leads the field in SG: Approach and opportunities gained. He has been dialed in of late on TOUR, with three great finishes at the most recent signature events. He finished inside the top 10 at both Pebble Beach and Riviera and just finished 12th at Bay Hill. Normally, Hoge feasts on lesser fields. However, these are the best fields the PGA TOUR offers. Hoge’s iron play continues to be the driving force behind his success.

I was able to bet Hoge at 100-1, but 70-1 still feels like a way to get exposure to a hot golfer at longer odds.

Tom Kim +9000 (PointsBet)

While I am targeting excellent recent form, Kim represents a price and gut play. He is a great iron player from tee to green, with his weaknesses being distance and putting. While putting is pretty important, TPC Sawgrass doesn’t require players to be long off the tee. Hitting fairways is far more important, and when Kim is playing well, he hits fairways and creates opportunities on approach.

Unfortunately, the recent form isn’t great. That is baked into this price, however, and I would rather take a shot at him now before he finds a T10 finish.

Quick Hitters

Russell Henley +4500

Henley has been solid this season but broke through last week at API with a 4th-place finish. Sign me up for courses requiring precise iron play.

J.T. Poston +11000

TPC Sawgrass feels like a course that would fit Poston so well. A great wedge player and nails putter, I will happily add Poston at this price.

Billy Horschel +13000

Florida-swing Billy? Of course. Billy rode a hot putter to a great finish at the Cognizant Classic. I can’t resist in Florida.

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Card

THE PLAYERS Championship Units: 2.75

2024 Net Units: -13.9

We need to turn this season around with a win. We have had a handful of close calls lately. Check back to this article or on X for any additions to this week’s card.

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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