The Reid Option: Week 14
Each week, Sammy Reid will break down each position in detail, pinpointing his favorite plays at various salary ranges. Who should we be focusing our core on this week? Read below to find out!
I’ve gotta start this week’s column by thanking you all for the comments last week. I didn’t reply individually, mostly because I read them Sunday morning and by then I figured most of you would be deep in the throes of NFL tilt and wouldn’t be going back in to the column to see my replies. Suffice it to say, I appreciate both the opinions on the column format and more importantly, the good words about the column itself.
Just like a regular job or DFS or just waking up and breathing, sometimes writing The Reid Option every week can be a grind. Realizing how many of you read it and actually like it means a lot to me, and I appreciate all of you. Thank you.
Onto serious business, we have four weeks left in the NFL DFS season. Or six, if you’re a ridiculous degen who plays short-slate playoff DFS. So, let’s just call it six. Anyhow, it’s Week 14 and things are getting weird. Critical players are dusting out in droves and their backups are becoming core DFS plays, and how we handle this dynamic will determine our fates. Specifically, I mean that we have to decide which elevated backups are cash locks, which ones are donkey chalk, and which ones we should be fading in GPPs because they’re overvalued and/or will be overly-owned.This week in particular, that’s gonna be the whole game.
Because certain players will be obvious plays, we have to be even more mindful about our game selection; the no-badge fish are the only ones who might miss out on the obvious plays, and getting them on our hooks will be key to gaining expected value this week. The edges against regs will be even smaller, because we’ll have fewer lineup spots to differentiate. Be diligent about scrolling through the heads-up lobbies and the small 50/50s and double-ups to find as many soft games as you can. Do it every day. A couple times a day would be better, if you can swing it. Just now, I took a quick break from writing to go enter a few contests and found me a $20 3-man with two no-badges and everything. I’m gonna get mine … you’d better get yours!
(As always, all odds listed are accurate at time of writing, and may shift throughout the week. The Reid Option focuses exclusively on the main slate.)
This week more than any other, it feels like we should build out the rest of our cash game lineups first and save the QB position for last. This is because there is no obvious must-play (that I see as I write this on Wednesday night), and there is less room for flexibility once we lock in our must-plays. Let’s address the Mark Sanchez issue first: I don’t want him. It’s not that I don’t think he can be of some value – I’m sure he can go 200/1/2 with 10 rushing yards, which would play for $4000 on Draftkings. And if he somehow got to 2 TDs, that’s more than exceeding value. My issue is a game-theory one; I believe the values elsewhere mean we shouldn’t have to take a low-floor/low-ceiling player at QB. It’s kind of like playing a poker tournament and passing up on a slightly +EV situation because you believe you’ll have a higher EV situation later. Also, Mark Sanchez sucks and backing him with real American Dollars just feels like something that would lead to crippling regrets, and I hate crippling regrets.
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