Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, August 5th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Eric Thames, Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing pitcher: Dario Agrazal
FanDuel price tag: $2,500
FanDuel position: C/1B
I hate calling a guy like Thames ‘sneaky’; the dude just hits moon shots. However, this position is pretty deep tonight, and PNC Park is a big downgrade from where Thames plays his home games (Miller Park).
A few things stand out to me here about this park though. The first is that, according to our Ballpark Factors, it plays slightly above average for lefty homeruns. And the second thing is that it is playing as the second friendliest hitters park in the league in 2019 (behind only Coors). That small of a sample can be noisy, but it still stands out to me nonetheless.
Then when we get to the actual matchup against Agrazal, we should be rushing to roster Thames tonight. The one big issue for Thames is how much he strikes out, and I think Agrazal may be allergic to strikeouts. Agrazal has a silly low 7.9% K% in the 76 plate appearances against righties this season.
I think Thames takes him deep in his first at-bat tonight. Calling my shot!
2) Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics
Opposing pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
FanDuel price tag: $2,800
FanDuel position: C/1B
Even with it being a possible wind game in Wrigley tonight (our MLB Weather page shows the wind blowing out to center but at ‘only’ 8 MPH), this probably isn’t going to be the guy that a lot of DFS owners will be eager to roster from this game.
That being said, the guy is just a different hitter this season. Maybe it’s the juiced baseball. Maybe it’s because he juices (and by juices, I obviously mean intaking his fruits and vegetables in liquid form). Regardless of what is going on here, let’s look in PlateIQ at his splits the past two seasons against RHP.
2018 (248 plate appearances): .304 wOBA, .116 ISO
2019 (235 plate appearances): .406 wOBA, .279 ISO
With the groundball lean of Hendricks to righties (50.2%), we want guys who can lift the ball on their own in order to get it up in that wind. Canha is one of those guys with his 44.4% flyball rate this season. He isn’t the first guy you think of you when you think “Oakland power bats”, but I’m guessing that is what the masses think as well. Use that to your advantage tonight at an extremely affordable price tag.
3) Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Opposing pitcher: Robert Dugger
FanDuel price tag: $3,500
FanDuel position: OF
There are all sorts of contextual factors in play here tonight that will make Conforto an afterthought. For one, this game isn’t even available on some other sites tonight, which could lead to it indirectly getting less traffic than a normal slate. Secondly, who knows when we actually get an official lineup since it is dependent on Game 1 ending. So while that brings some risk for a zero if Conforto isn’t in the lineup, it will also bring with it extremely low ownership.
Conforto obviously has power. He has 22 home runs this season, and 17 of them have come against RHP. Tonight he will see a righty in Dugger that is making his major league debut, and you can easily make the argument he isn’t quite ready for that. In seven starts at AAA this season, he has posted a 9.34 ERA, 16.4% K%, and 43.8% flyball rate, all while giving up a 1.77 HR/9. Yikes Mr. Dugger.
Take advantage of some of these variables tonight that will lead to Conforto being lower owned than he should. If there were no double-header today, he might actually be rather popular due to how poorly Dugger projects.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy