Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, June 3rd
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
Opposing pitcher: Aaron Nola
FanDuel price tag: $3,300
FanDuel position: OF
If Nola is going to be as popular as I think he is tonight, then we should like Renfroe even more. Nola will be popular because he is getting a positive park shift going in to San Diego (although it is nowhere near as substantial as the public thinks) to face a Padres lineup that strikes out against RHP more than any other team in the league (27.3%).
But while there is obvious strikeout risk here, Renfroe has massive power. According to PlateIQ, Renfroe has posted a .293 ISO in 406 plate appearances against RHP since the start of 2018. With Nola giving up way more hard contact this season versus righties (41%) compared to last season (25%), Renfroe can absolutely send one out if he gets a hold of one.
Lastly, there is a chance that Renfroe doesn’t crack the lineup in favor of someone like Josh Naylor. If that is the case, the next place I would look for one-off power as a Nola leverage play would be Franmil Reyes. He also has outfield eligibility on FanDuel, is only $2,800, and has good power in this split as well (.202 ISO since the start of 2018).
2) Edwin Encarnacion, Seattle Mariners
Opposing pitcher: Corbin Martin
FanDuel price tag: $3,900
FanDuel position: C/1B
E5 got a reputation as a lefty masher during his many years with Toronto, but what if I told you he has hit righties better than lefties in recent years? Check out these numbers, per PlateIQ, versus both handedness since the start of 2018.
Vs. RHP (628 plate appearances): .356 wOBA, .241 ISO, 42.5% flyballs, 40.2% hard contact
Vs. LHP (203 plate appearances): .345 wOBA, .202 ISO, 51.6% flyballs, 41.3% hard contact
It is difficult to read too much into what Corbin Marin has done considering it has only been four starts, but he certainly hasn’t fared well against righties in the 37 plate appearances thus far:
.503 wOBA, .485 ISO, 18.9% K%, 48% GB%, 36% flyballs, 40% hard contact
When it comes to allocating salary on this small slate, I doubt many will be prioritizing Edwin when you have his teammate (Vogelbach) for $200 cheaper with the platoon advantage and other good salary relief plays at first base. Nonetheless, Edwin has as good of a chance as any hitter on this slate to hit one out.
3) Jake Marisnick, Houston Astros
Opposing pitcher: Wade LeBlanc
FanDuel price tag: $2,400
FanDuel position: OF
The Astros are likely to be the chalky offense on this small three-game slate tonight. However, since you can only play four Astros batters on FanDuel, and there are other good salary savers in this lineup that should hit higher in the order (e.g. Straw, White, Mayfield), Marisnick might be one of the sneakier guys on this offense since he usually hits ninth.
It is rare you see this kind of pop for this cheap of a price tag. According to PlateIQ, Marisnick has a .203 ISO against LHP since the start of 2018. Opposing pitcher Wade LeBlanc has been hopeless against righties this season, allowing a .408 wOBA and .278 ISO thanks to 41% flyballs and 44.6% hard contact. He is also backed up by a Mariners bullpen that is one of the worst in the league.
Marisnick makes for a great, cheap one-off with his sneaky power, and I love him as part of an Astros wraparound stack too.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy