Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, May 6th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Opposing pitcher: Kevin Gausman
FanDuel price tag: $3,000
FanDuel position: C/1B
Gausman has been a little reverse-splitsy over the past couple years, which makes me hope that some of these Dodgers lefties go at least a little bit unnoticed on this slate. That probably won’t be the case for guys like Joc Pederson ($3,200) and Corey Seager ($2,900), but I do think Muncy gets lost in the shuffle a little bit.
According to PlateIQ, Muncy has posted a .405 wOBA, .290 ISO, 44.6% flyball rate, and 47.9% hard hit rate in 491 plate appearances against RHP since the start of 2018. Those are just massive numbers, and that is in a pretty decent sample size too.
If you look at our Ballpark Factors, Dodger Stadium is actually a way better park for lefty home runs than it is probably given credit for. Add in an 8 MPH wind blowing out to right field (according to our weather page), and Muncy tops my sneaky home run list.
2) Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers
Opposing pitcher: Max Scherzer
FanDuel price tag: $2,400
FanDuel position: 3B
Miller Park is an even better park for lefty power, but ownership should be much lower here on Shaw since he is facing Mad Max tonight.
If we look at the ‘Pitch Type Comparison’ in PlateIQ, we see that Max throws his fastball about half of the time against lefties, and it usually sits in the 94-96 MPH per range. As you can see, Shaw excels against RHP’s that throw that pitch in that range, posting a .347 wOBA, .471 CXwOBA, and .316 ISO in 77 batted ball events.
We know the strikeout risk is huge here. But I am absolutely willing to take a shot on Shaw hitting one out at only $2,400, as Max has been somewhat human so far this season against lefties. He has ‘only’ struck out 27% of them, while allowing a .408 wOBA and .254 ISO thanks to a 43% flyball rate and 40% hard contact. If Shaw can find one to hit, I think it has a great chance of leaving the yard.
3) Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
Opposing pitcher: Marcus Stroman
FanDuel price tag: $3,700
FanDuel position: OF
Since the phrase “always take Nelson Cruz against a lefty” became so popular in the past few years, he always seems to go overlooked against RHP. As impressive as he has been against LHP since the start of 2018 (.404 wOBA, .297 ISO), it’s not like he has been some slouch against RHP (.365 wOBA, .248 ISO).
With Stroman having such a heavy groundball lean, we are going to want batters against him that lean flyballs. Nellie has certainly been doing that a ton this season, with a 48% flyball rate against RHP. He is also tattooing everything he sees from righties, to the tune of a 56% hard contact rate.
The likelihood of a Cruz homer might even increase as the game goes along. According to our recently debuted bullpen data in the ‘Premium Leaderboards’ on PlateIQ, the Toronto bullpen has the worst xFIP in the league (4.76) and third worst ISO allowed (.165).
Nellie is priced just close enough to the chalky Boston outfielders (J.D., Betts) that it should drown his ownership. But the savings will also let you upgrade a bat at another position. In a good hitting environment like the Rogers Centre, I think we could be looking at a low-owned dinger tonight here with Cruz.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy