ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Divisional Weekend
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for the Divisional Round
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In the Divisional Round we have teams that are going to lay it all on the line. I think we see some games with fireworks all weekend. Let’s dig in and see what nuggets we can find.
Trevor Lawrence, 245.5 Passing Yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
This game should be a track meet for the Jaguars and I’m expecting Trevor to have to push the ball down the field. The Chiefs will put pressure on this team to score points and at certain spots in the game they will need to score quickly. For this reason, Lawrence is one of my favorite props of the weekend across all sites, and nothing is changing here.
Pick: Over, 95 points
Christian Kirk, 60.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
The theme continues this week for the Jaguars. I don’t think this team will have the option to lay back. If they do, they could be down 21 quickly. The Chiefs WILL force the Jaguars to keep pace with their scoring output, and for this reason, “stacking” Jacksonville props is a staple approach for me this week. Kirk is one of the top options on this team and picks up chunk yardage. I think we see see big plays as the Chiefs defense is nothing to worry about.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Zay Jones, 4.5 Receptions: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
If Trevor Lawrence is going to pile up the passing yards, the ball has to go somewhere. Zay Jones will be a big part of this game plan. He’s been a focal point of the aerial attack all season, and typically receives pretty good volume. As the scoring mounts on the KC side, the Jaguars will receive pressure to keep pace. When this happens the receivers of the Jaguars will fly over their props. I love Jones this week.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn