ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Super Bowl LVII
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Props GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for the AFC/NFC Championship
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
We have made it to the big game with two teams that can put the ball in the end zone. Let’s see what Thrive has in store this week with a HUGE 100k contest.
Patrick Mahomes, 26.5 Completions: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
If the Chiefs want to win this game they will have to put up points. In competitive games this season Mahomes has pushed the ball down the field at an incredible clip. As a result he has cleared this number with ease. I think Mahomes ends up in the 28-30 range for completions in this game as the Eagles are on of the leagues best at scoring and putting the pressure on the other team. I see no problems with the Chiefs being able to move the ball down the field and I expect a back and forth affair. Mahomes will try to will his team to glory here and his arm will be a huge part of it.
Pick: Over, 110 points
A.J. Brown, 63.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
The Eagles will have to keep scoring points if they want to win this football game. On the biggest stage of the year for the NFL I think we see the stars shine. One of those stars is A.J. Brown. He didn’t have to do much in the NFC championship or the divisional round for this team to pick up the victory. It’s a whole new ball game with Mahomes and the Chiefs on the other side and I think he has a massive day from a yardage perspective. Both teams will have to keep scoring to win and I think Brown is a huge part of it. Hot take: He goes over this number in the first half.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Dallas Goedert, 3.5 Receptions: Over, 70 points / Under, 130 points
This is the no brainer prop of the week for the gpp. You are taking the point reduction, but you are pretty much guaranteeing that you hit this prop. It’s going to give you a floor to set up the rest of your build. Even in a massive blowout with very little passing, Goedert was able to pick up 5 receptions in the NFC championship. In a game where I think this team will have to air it out a bit more for the win, Goedert should see targets and receptions galore. This is the slam dunk prop of the week for this contest.
Pick: Over, 70 points
Closing Thoughts
It has been my pleasure to try and put everyone into the winners circle with these tidbits each and every week for the NFL season. I hope you enjoyed it, and let’s close out the season with a BANG!
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Getty Images