ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Player Props Wild Card Weekend
Looking for a new way to play? NFL DFS analyst Will Priester is here to help as he breaks down his favorite GPP picks at ThriveFantasy. Sign up with the ThriveFantasy promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a $250 deposit match plus free contest tickets!
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy GPP Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first ten will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your ten primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Wild Card Weekend
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 18 we have some teams playing for everything and some teams playing for nothing at all. It should be a wild finish to the NFL regular season. Let’s dig in and see what nuggets we can find.
Geno Smith, 245.5 Passing Yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
The Seahawks will be in a dog fight as i’m sure the San Francisco defense will be clicking on all cylinders for their playoff game. Geno has seemingly worn down towards the end of the season and I think this legendary defense gets the best of him in a high pressure game. He’s had one of his best seasons as a professional quarterback, but his season ends with a low stats playoff loss in San Francisco.
Pick: Under, 105 points
Kenneth Walker, 78.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
The 49ers defense has been incredible this season. They’ve been complete across the board, but they have really shut down the rushing attack of every team that comes in the building. Due to their over style of play as a team, at some point you have to let it fly because if you give them the ball, time is ticking and points are being scored. Running backs have had a tough time, and that doesn’t change this wee.
Pick: Under, 90 points
Keenan Allen, 63.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
Keenan Allen is going to get all the work he can handle in this Wild Card Playoff game against the Jaguars. Mike Williams has been ruled out with a back fracture and his targets are not only more stable, but should increase just a hair. With the type of targets he receives in terms of volume, I think we see him go over this yardage total with plenty of game to spare. This feels like one of the sweat free props of the week, and I hope it proves me right.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn