ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 13
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 13
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 13, we have a handful of props that I feel VERY comfortable with. Let’s hop in.
Patrick Mahomes, 285.5 Passing Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Mahomes has been sensational the past few weeks, and I don’t see any reason for him to slow down this week. In the first half alone, Mahomes has been pushing close to 200 yards in a fair number of games this season, and I’m inclined to think that nothing changes in a big AFC matchup with the Bengals..
Pick: Over, 100 points
Lamar Jackson, 262.5 Pass Yds + Rush Yds: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
Lamar Jackson has had some big games on the ground this season, but the passing has been mostly lackluster. In comes the Denver defense that has been stifling quarterbacks all year. I am expecting Lamar to rattle off a few runs, but the combined yardage here is a touch too high for my blood. The Denver offense is terrible, but this defense is a problem, and I’m expecting it to be a problem yet again this week for Mr. Jackson.
Pick: Under, 95 points
CeeDee Lamb, 61.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 75 points / Under, 125 points
Lamb has been the primary receiving option for the Cowboys all year. In this matchup, he should have another game where he gets close to or exceeds double digit targets yet again. With the volume he’s getting and his ability to get down the field in space, I smell a recipe for success with our GPP builds including Ceedee this week.
Pick: Over, 75 points
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!
Image Credit: Imagn