Thursday Night Football Preview: Bills vs. Saints Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Bills vs. Saints Odds
| Bills Odds | -6.5 |
| Saints Odds | +6.5 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 25 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints will battle in the Thanksgiving day finale at the Caesars Superdome. Oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable victory for the Bills, pricing Buffalo as a touchdown favorite on the spread.
In this Thursday Night Football betting preview, we’ll take a closer look at the matchup and Bills vs. Saints odds to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks on Thanksgiving night.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
At times this fall, the Bills have looked like Super Bowl contenders. At other points, they have not even looked good enough to be a playoff team. In November alone, Buffalo has suffered a loss to the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars and a 26-point defeat to the Indianapolis Colts.
Josh Allen has been a top-10 quarterback overall this season, ranking sixth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and ninth in QBR. However, he has four games this fall with less than 250 passing yards, and multiple interceptions in two of his last three contests. Buffalo has run the ball reasonably well this fall, but they lack a dominant running back, which makes their week-to-week production as a unit unreliable. The Bills had only 22 rushing yards from their running backs in Week 9, but totaled 139 yards in Week 10, only to revert back to 40 yards from their running backs in Week 11. Running behind a porous offensive line against a dominant New Orleans rush defense, it could be another rough day for Buffalo on the ground on Thursday.
Defensively, the Bills have been arguably the best pass defense in the NFL. Opposing signal callers have thrown for only seven touchdowns against 15 interceptions this fall—good for a 62.2 passer rating. Buffalo has also held opposing quarterbacks to a league-best 5.7 yards per attempt and a stifling 57.7 completion percentage. Trevor Siemian could be in for a difficult holiday against a strong secondary. The Bills are strong up front as well, ranking 10th in the league, allowing 4.1 yards-per-carry.
New Orleans Saints (+6.5)
Siemian has been underwhelming with a 36.9 QBR in his limited action this year, but he does own a respectable 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Prior to Week 11, Siemian had committed zero turnovers in 104 pass attempts. Alvin Kamara has already been ruled out for this contest. Mark Ingram II was a late addition to the injury report, and appears unlikely to see the field on Thursday. Tony Jones Jr. and Dwayne Washington are two candidates to see an added workload out of the backfield, though neither running back has more than 79 rushing yards this fall. Running behind arguably the worst run-blocking offensive line in football is going to be difficult for whoever is given touches in this one.
If the Saints are going to stay competitive in this prime time affair, they are going to need a strong day from their defense. New Orleans is allowing the fewest yards-per-carry of any team in the NFL. This defense has also held opposing quarterbacks to the fifth-lowest passer rating in the league, allowing only 13 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins form one of the best safety tandems in the league. Pete Werner and Demario Davis are a dominant duo as part of an elite linebacker corps. Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, and Cameron Jordan will cause a restless night’s sleep for any offensive coordinator.
Bills vs. Saints Pick & Prediction
The consensus line for the total in this game has moved down to 45.5 at most major sportsbooks. Bettors could be wise to grab a couple of points of insurance in this one, grabbing this line at under 47. Since the NFL moved the extra point in 2015, 47 has been the fourth-most common total in the league. Buffalo has a tough test on the road against a ferocious New Orleans defense that will be eager to make amends for a disastrous performance in Week 11. The Saints are likely to struggle to do much of anything on offense with their poor offensive line, a backup quarterback, and neither of their top two running backs. The under could be a profitable endeavor in this one.
PICKS: Under 47 (-140)
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